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Value over replacement in fantasy football

Value over replacement (VOR) is projected production minus what the position gives away for free. It is the comparison that matters in this ten-team draft.

as of 2026-08-02 · expires 2026-08-15 · status current · format espn-ppr1.0-10tm-std

Perishable — validate this page against current inputs after the 2026-08-02 source state and regenerate within 48 hours of the draft once its exact date is known.

Up: Fantasy Football · Related: Replacement level · 2026 draft board · Tiers by position · Late-round quarterback · The last two rounds — kicker and defence

The current replacement baselines

The lineup starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE FLEX, K, and D/ST. With ten managers, the current 10-team model uses these effective starter baselines:

Position Fixed starters FLEX allocation in model Replacement baseline
RB 20 4 RB24
WR 20 6 WR26
TE 10 0 TE10
QB 10 none QB10

The FLEX allocation is a decision model, not a promise about weekly lineup usage. Its job is to compare options consistently: an RB is valuable for the edge over RB24, a WR for the edge over WR26, and so on. Raw points across positions do not answer that question.

What it means at the draft table

A high-scoring QB is not automatically an early pick because every roster can start a quarterback near QB10. A premium RB or WR matters when his edge over RB24 or WR26 is larger than the alternatives at the turn. A top TE is worth the cost only when his edge over TE10 clears the same test.

This is why tiers matter. When two candidates are in the same VOR tier, take roster construction, role stability, and ADP value into account. When a tier is about to end before your next pick, take the remaining tier value rather than chasing a position by name.

From 1.01, eighteen selections occur before 20/21. Use VOR to decide what cannot survive that gap, not to force a predetermined RB/WR/QB sequence. The complete path is 1 · 20 · 21 · 40 · 41 · 60 · 61 · 80 · 81 · 100 · 101 · 120 · 121 · 140 · 141 · 160.

Kicker and D/ST

K and D/ST are streamable positions, so their draft replacement level is closer to the best option available on waivers than to the tenth season-long rank. Draft them late and treat their projected ordering as a tiebreaker, not a foundation of roster value.

D/ST deserves an additional warning: custom points- and yards-allowed scoring is known, but exact intermediate event values for sacks, interceptions, and fumble recoveries are not yet documented. D/ST VOR and projected points therefore remain model outputs, not precise forecasts.

Data status

The prior point-gap table and all player-specific VOR claims were calculated from a July 12-team dataset and are no longer valid for this league. The August 2 2026 draft board now combines current projections, injury/depth-chart research, and 10-team ADP using the RB24/WR26/TE10/QB10 baselines above.

The regular season is Weeks 1–14; the top six of ten qualify for a Weeks 15–17 playoff. That rewards an early roster that is sound above replacement, while still reserving late picks and bench capacity for upside.

Open questions