An alpha X for the Rams, the highest-projected receiver on the board and the first non-running-back in the 1.01 tier.
August 2 10-team update
10-team ADP: 2.7; projection: 339.3 points; model risk: low. He is expected to practice despite contract negotiations and is available in the current-status ledger. Status source. This block supersedes earlier numeric, risk, and turn language.
The role
He is the projection's alpha X, but not a confirmed one-player target monopoly: Davante Adams is active and the current split needs preseason routes to become a forecast adjustment. A target is a throw in his direction, counted whether or not he catches it (see Fantasy football glossary) — and target volume is more stable than efficiency once the role is established.
The number
116 catches, from the frozen August 2 Data/players.csv note. In full PPR that is 116 points before a single yard. It is a projection from the current FFToday stat-line snapshot, not a record of anything that happened.
The risk
His risk flag is low, but the exposure is structural rather than personal: he carries a week 11 bye, the worst week of the 2026 calendar with six teams idle, and receiver replacement is deeper than at running back in this format. Use the board's published 10-team baselines rather than an inherited positional-count comparison. The personal exposure is availability: he has missed seven games in three seasons, while the projection assumes 17 games — see Availability and injury risk.
The context
Historical context: he was the 177th pick of the 2023 draft, a fifth-rounder out of BYU. From 2023–25 he played 17, 11 and 16 games; in 2025 he played 70.5% of Rams snaps and caught 129 of 166 targets. Those past numbers support the projection case but do not settle the current Nacua–Adams allocation.
All figures in this paragraph are historical context, not an August target-share report.
Open questions
- Does the projected catch count assume the Rams' other receivers stay in their current roles? A depth-chart change at the August 30 cutdown would move it.
- The board's modelled
Adj VORnow prices his availability, and the gap to the top backs widens rather than closes — but that model treats a week-3 absence and a week-16 absence identically, and this league's money is decided in weeks 15–17.