Rendered from Data/players.csv by Data/build_board.py on 2026-08-02. No rank on this page was typed by hand. Projections are FFToday stat lines updated 2026-07-30 (complete base-plus-pagination snapshot), scored under this league's own rules; ADP is Fantasy Football Calculator's 10-team PPR 4,121-mock snapshot captured 2026-08-02 — a labelled proxy for ESPN ADP, not ESPN's own (_PLAN.md §10.5).
What this board models, and what it cannot
**Availability is now priced, in the `Adj VOR` column** — the raw `VOR` column still assumes seventeen games from everybody, so read the two together. The received wisdom that running back is the most injury-prone position was tested against three seasons of games played and **did not survive**; see Availability and injury risk for what the data says instead, and for the survivor selection that limits the claim. **Kicker and D/ST points have explicit model caveats.** Every skill row on this board is a published projected stat line put through this league's scoring. Kicker source projection gives kickers only makes and attempts, with no distances, so the 3/4/5/6 points-by-distance scale is applied through an assumed league-average distance mix — every made field goal is valued identically. D/ST rows retain the existing certified model unchanged; raw FFToday D/ST is audit-only until every scoring bracket is certified. **Read both as ordering, not as forecasts.**How to read the columns
- Rk — rank on this board, by value over replacement. Pos rk — rank within his own position on this board.
RB4means the fourth-best running back in this file; it is not a claim about the wider fantasy world. - Tm — the three-letter NFL team code. The 32 offenses lists all thirty-two with full names, byes and the players who matter.
- Bye — the one week that team does not play, when the player scores zero. See Bye-week planning.
- Proj pts — projected points for the season under this league's scoring. VOR — those points minus what the same position gives you for free. See Value over replacement in fantasy football.
- ADP — average draft position: where he actually goes, averaged over thousands of mock drafts. Board rank minus market pick is shown only when this board and the market disagree by 15 draft slots or more. A positive number means the market takes him later than this board ranks him, which is a value; a negative number means the market pays up.
- Risk —
low,medorhigh, assigned mechanically, not by judgement. It ishighwhen a teammate at the same position projects for at least 60% of his touches, or when this board and the market disagree about him by twelve places or more within his position;medat 35% and six places. It is a flag for how contested or contested-looking the role is, not a durability rating. Durability lives in theAvailandAdj VORcolumns, which are computed from games actually played;Riskknows nothing about health. - Age — his age on the season opener, 9 September 2026, computed from his date of birth. Observed, though rounded to whole years here;
Data/player_context.csvcarries it to one decimal. - Avail — the share of his team's games he has actually played over the last three seasons, shrunk toward his position's average so one clean rookie year does not read as proof of durability.
0.95is iron;0.75means he has missed roughly a quarter of the games he could have played. Rookies carry their position's base rate, because there is nothing to measure. See Availability and injury risk. - Adj VOR — value over replacement after scaling each projection by how that player's availability compares with his position's average. This is a model. It is the column that answers the objection the first version of this board could not: that a projection assuming seventeen games from everybody flatters the players who never play seventeen games.
- Why — the archetype from Player archetypes, then the number that makes the case.
The board
| Rk | Pos rk | Player | Tm | Pos | Age | Bye | Proj pts | VOR | Avail | Adj VOR | ADP | Board rank minus market pick | Risk | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RB1 | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | 24 | 6 | 367 | +166 | 0.93 | +197 | 1.6 | med | three-down bell cow; 279 carries + 72 catches projected; status 2026-08-02: present but not practicing in hold-in; team describes a back issue; no PUP/IR [source: https://www.nfl.com/news/what-we-learned-back-together-weekend-sunday-2026-training-camp] | |
| 2 | RB2 | Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | 25 | 11 | 367 | +166 | 0.96 | +210 | 2.0 | med | three-down bell cow; 280 carries + 84 catches projected; status 2026-08-02: current participation unresolved during extension talks; Brian Robinson is complementary/short-yardage competition [source: https://www.atlantafalcons.com/news/falcons-2026-training-camp-preview-running-backs] | |
| 3 | RB3 | Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | 30 | 8 | 346 | +145 | 0.75 | +98 | 5.0 | med | three-down bell cow; 279 carries + 82 catches projected; status 2026-08-02: team plans a reduced 2026 workload with younger backs receiving opportunity [source: https://new.cbssports.com/nfl/news/kyle-shanahan-christian-mccaffreys-workload-in-2026-49ers-no-2-rb-role/] | |
| 4 | WR1 | Puka Nacua | LAR | WR | 25 | 11 | 339 | +136 | 0.86 | +138 | 2.7 | low | alpha X; 116 catches for 1561 yards projected | |
| 5 | WR2 | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | WR | 26 | 6 | 330 | +127 | 0.93 | +157 | 4.1 | med | alpha X; 116 catches for 1474 yards projected; status 2026-08-02: attendance verified; full participation not independently verified [source: https://www.bengals.com/news/five-observations-day-4-bengals-training-camp-august-1-2026] | |
| 6 | WR3 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 27 | 6 | 318 | +114 | 0.95 | +149 | 7.5 | low | alpha X; 119 catches for 1377 yards projected | |
| 7 | WR4 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | 25 | 11 | 308 | +104 | 0.96 | +143 | 6.2 | low | alpha X; 105 catches for 1521 yards projected | |
| 8 | TE1 | Brock Bowers | LV | TE | 24 | 13 | 254 | +94 | 0.85 | +92 | 38.9 | +31 | low | move TE; 103 catches for 1088 yards projected |
| 9 | TE2 | Trey McBride | ARI | TE | 27 | 14 | 251 | +91 | 0.94 | +118 | 34.2 | +25 | low | move TE; 104 catches for 1049 yards projected |
| 10 | RB4 | Jonathan Taylor | IND | RB | 28 | 13 | 286 | +85 | 0.81 | +64 | 7.3 | low | three-down bell cow; 299 carries + 36 catches projected | |
| 11 | RB5 | James Cook | BUF | RB | 27 | 7 | 275 | +74 | 0.94 | +97 | 14.5 | low | three-down bell cow; 275 carries + 32 catches projected | |
| 12 | QB1 | Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 30 | 7 | 366 | +71 | 0.93 | +101 | 26.7 | +15 | low | rushing QB; 567 rushing yards projected |
| 13 | WR5 | Drake London | ATL | WR | 25 | 11 | 272 | +69 | 0.88 | +74 | 10.7 | low | alpha X; 99 catches for 1312 yards projected | |
| 14 | RB6 | Omarion Hampton | LAC | RB | 24 | 7 | 268 | +66 | 0.68 | +1 | 19.4 | low | three-down bell cow; 257 carries + 52 catches projected | |
| 15 | RB7 | De'Von Achane | MIA | RB | 25 | 6 | 267 | +66 | 0.85 | +59 | 9.6 | low | early-down committee back; 228 carries + 56 catches projected | |
| 16 | RB8 | Ashton Jeanty | LV | RB | 23 | 13 | 264 | +63 | 0.91 | +75 | 13.2 | low | three-down bell cow; 271 carries + 56 catches projected | |
| 17 | WR6 | Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | 27 | 6 | 266 | +62 | 0.86 | +63 | 13.3 | low | alpha X; 95 catches for 1288 yards projected | |
| 18 | RB9 | Saquon Barkley | PHI | RB | 30 | 10 | 262 | +61 | 0.88 | +63 | 18.2 | low | three-down bell cow; 281 carries + 42 catches projected; status 2026-08-02: A.J. Brown is with NE; PHI target allocation is unresolved under a new offense [source: https://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/news/eagles-trade-aj-brown-to-the-patriots] | |
| 19 | RB10 | Chase Brown | CIN | RB | 26 | 6 | 262 | +61 | 0.87 | +58 | 13.7 | low | three-down bell cow; 242 carries + 57 catches projected | |
| 20 | RB11 | Jeremiyah Love | ARI | RB | 21 | 14 | 260 | +59 | 0.82 | +42 | 24.2 | med | three-down bell cow; 246 carries + 56 catches projected | |
| 21 | RB12 | Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | 33 | 13 | 260 | +58 | 0.96 | +84 | 15.6 | low | goal-line back; 321 carries + 16 catches projected | |
| 22 | RB13 | Kenneth Walker | KC | RB | 26 | 5 | 258 | +57 | 0.84 | +44 | 26.0 | med | three-down bell cow; 262 carries + 42 catches projected; status 2026-08-02: participated in mandatory-minicamp 11-on-11; current workload remains unverified [source: https://www.chiefs.com/news/chiefs-wrap-up-mandatory-minicamp-at-the-team-facility] | |
| 23 | WR7 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 27 | 14 | 253 | +49 | 0.88 | +54 | 11.6 | low | alpha X; 87 catches for 1177 yards projected | |
| 24 | RB14 | Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | 26 | 11 | 248 | +46 | 0.87 | +43 | 32.4 | high | three-down bell cow; 249 carries + 34 catches projected | |
| 25 | WR8 | Rashee Rice | KC | WR | 26 | 5 | 250 | +46 | 0.62 | -22 | 17.4 | high | alpha X; 96 catches for 1117 yards projected; status 2026-08-02: cleared to participate in training camp after knee recovery [source: https://www.nfl.com/news/chiefs-qb-patrick-mahomes-knee-fully-cleared-to-participate-in-training-camp] | |
| 26 | RB15 | Cam Skattebo | NYG | RB | 25 | 8 | 247 | +46 | 0.65 | -24 | 33.3 | med | three-down bell cow; 262 carries + 46 catches projected | |
| 27 | RB16 | Breece Hall | NYJ | RB | 25 | 13 | 246 | +44 | 0.93 | +58 | 27.8 | low | three-down bell cow; 258 carries + 47 catches projected; status 2026-08-02: officially identified RB1 ahead of Allen and Davis [source: https://www.newyorkjets.com/news/what-have-we-learned-from-jets-otas-06-05-2026] | |
| 28 | WR9 | Chris Olave | NO | WR | 26 | 8 | 247 | +43 | 0.80 | +27 | 21.7 | low | alpha X; 94 catches for 1110 yards projected; status 2026-08-02: active alpha WR in the Shough-led offense [source: https://www.neworleanssaints.com/news/what-to-watch-for-at-new-orleans-saints-training-camp-2026] | |
| 29 | RB17 | Josh Jacobs | GB | RB | 29 | 11 | 244 | +43 | 0.87 | +39 | 24.6 | low | three-down bell cow; 282 carries + 35 catches projected | |
| 30 | WR10 | Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR | 26 | 13 | 246 | +42 | 0.82 | +30 | 27.8 | med | alpha X; 100 catches for 1155 yards projected; status 2026-08-02: officially identified undisputed WR1 [source: https://www.newyorkjets.com/news/what-have-we-learned-from-jets-otas-06-05-2026] | |
| 31 | WR11 | A.J. Brown | NE | WR | 29 | 11 | 244 | +40 | 0.88 | +45 | 17.0 | low | alpha X; 86 catches for 1155 yards projected; status 2026-08-02: active primary WR with improving Maye connection [source: https://www.patriots.com/news/day-6-blogservations-drake-maye-lights-up-training-camp] | |
| 32 | WR12 | Nico Collins | HOU | WR | 28 | 8 | 240 | +36 | 0.83 | +28 | 23.7 | low | field-stretching Z; 79 catches for 1186 yards projected | |
| 33 | TE3 | Colston Loveland | CHI | TE | 22 | 10 | 194 | +34 | 0.89 | +40 | 58.8 | +26 | med | move TE; 73 catches for 848 yards projected; status 2026-08-02: active TE with Kmet and Roush target competition [source: https://www.chicagobears.com/news/bears-2026-training-camp-position-preview-tight-end] |
| 34 | TE4 | Tyler Warren | IND | TE | 24 | 13 | 192 | +32 | 0.92 | +45 | 64.8 | +31 | low | move TE; 78 catches for 836 yards projected |
| 35 | RB18 | Javonte Williams | DAL | RB | 26 | 14 | 233 | +32 | 0.93 | +44 | 34.7 | med | three-down bell cow; 251 carries + 33 catches projected; status 2026-08-02: Javonte Williams is definitive RB1; RB2 contingency among Malik Davis Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah unresolved; role context: Williams lead; RB2 unresolved [source: https://www.dallascowboys.com/news/cowboys-depth-chart-updated-look-at-offensive-starters-for-2026] | |
| 36 | QB2 | Drake Maye | NE | QB | 24 | 11 | 325 | +30 | 0.87 | +31 | 51.6 | +16 | low | rushing QB; 433 rushing yards projected; status 2026-08-02: locked QB1 with promising multi-level passing context [source: https://www.patriots.com/news/drake-maye-discusses-his-goals-for-patriots-training-camp-heading-into-third-season] |
| 37 | WR13 | Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | 26 | 13 | 233 | +29 | 0.95 | +53 | 27.4 | low | field-stretching Z; 79 catches for 1117 yards projected | |
| 38 | RB19 | Bucky Irving | TB | RB | 24 | 10 | 229 | +28 | 0.80 | +5 | 42.4 | med | three-down bell cow; 261 carries + 39 catches projected; status 2026-08-02: lead back with meaningful Gainwell receiving and change-of-pace competition [source: https://www.buccaneers.com/news/buccaneers-offensive-preview-training-camp-2026] | |
| 39 | WR14 | DeVonta Smith | PHI | WR | 28 | 10 | 231 | +28 | 0.89 | +36 | 28.9 | low | big slot; 83 catches for 1122 yards projected; status 2026-08-02: A.J. Brown is with NE; PHI target allocation is unresolved under a new offense [source: https://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/news/eagles-trade-aj-brown-to-the-patriots] | |
| 40 | TE5 | Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE | TE | 22 | 11 | 187 | +28 | 0.89 | +33 | 76.8 | +37 | low | move TE; 77 catches for 801 yards projected |
| 41 | TE6 | Kyle Pitts | ATL | TE | 26 | 11 | 186 | +26 | 0.96 | +47 | 80.9 | +40 | low | move TE; 76 catches for 856 yards projected |
| 42 | RB20 | Travis Etienne | NO | RB | 28 | 8 | 227 | +26 | 0.93 | +37 | 36.6 | med | three-down bell cow; 246 carries + 44 catches projected; status 2026-08-02: lead-committee hypothesis; Kamara remains a receiving and committee competitor [source: https://www.neworleanssaints.com/news/what-to-watch-for-at-new-orleans-saints-training-camp-2026] | |
| 43 | RB21 | Bhayshul Tuten | JAC | RB | 25 | 7 | 226 | +25 | 0.85 | +16 | 55.7 | med | three-down bell cow; 257 carries + 38 catches projected; status 2026-08-02: projected lead early-down back in a three-way committee [source: https://www.nfl.com/news/afc-south-training-camp-2026-preview-texans-colts-jaguars-titans] | |
| 44 | QB3 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | QB | 30 | 13 | 319 | +24 | 0.89 | +32 | 53.9 | low | rushing QB; 646 rushing yards projected | |
| 45 | WR15 | George Pickens | DAL | WR | 26 | 14 | 226 | +23 | 0.92 | +39 | 21.2 | -24 | med | field-stretching Z; 74 catches for 1102 yards projected |
| 46 | RB22 | D'Andre Swift | CHI | RB | 28 | 10 | 224 | +22 | 0.93 | +33 | 45.4 | high | three-down bell cow; 233 carries + 39 catches projected; status 2026-08-02: lead back in a two-back structure [source: https://www.chicagobears.com/news/bears-2026-training-camp-position-preview-running-back] | |
| 47 | WR16 | Malik Nabers | NYG | WR | 23 | 8 | 225 | +21 | 0.66 | -32 | 41.2 | med | big slot; 77 catches for 1044 yards projected; status 2026-08-02: avoided PUP while recovering from ACL tear and second scar-tissue clean-up [source: https://www.nfl.com/news/giants-wr-malik-nabers-avoids-pup-list-training-camp] | |
| 48 | WR17 | Emeka Egbuka | TB | WR | 24 | 10 | 225 | +21 | 0.93 | +39 | 36.7 | med | big slot; 78 catches for 1046 yards projected; status 2026-08-02: flexible Z receiver carving out a role in camp [source: https://www.buccaneers.com/news/training-camp-takeaways-practice-day-3] | |
| 49 | WR18 | Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | WR | 23 | 5 | 222 | +18 | 0.93 | +36 | 33.6 | -15 | low | big slot; 78 catches for 1081 yards projected |
| 50 | QB4 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | QB | 28 | 10 | 314 | +18 | 0.92 | +37 | 76.1 | +26 | med | rushing QB; 456 rushing yards projected; status 2026-08-02: A.J. Brown is with NE; PHI target allocation is unresolved under a new offense [source: https://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/news/eagles-trade-aj-brown-to-the-patriots] |
| 51 | WR19 | Davante Adams | LAR | WR | 34 | 11 | 221 | +18 | 0.88 | +22 | 41.5 | low | big slot; 70 catches for 911 yards projected | |
| 52 | WR20 | Jameson Williams | DET | WR | 26 | 6 | 221 | +17 | 0.86 | +18 | 47.5 | med | field-stretching Z; 66 catches for 1088 yards projected | |
| 53 | TE7 | Travis Kelce | KC | TE | 37 | 5 | 174 | +15 | 0.92 | +25 | 95.5 | +42 | low | move TE; 73 catches for 771 yards projected |
| 54 | QB5 | Jayden Daniels | WAS | QB | 26 | 7 | 309 | +14 | 0.75 | -28 | 71.8 | +18 | low | rushing QB; 642 rushing yards projected; status 2026-08-02: fully healthy entering the David Blough offense and established QB1 [source: https://www.commanders.com/news/commanders-2026-training-camp-preview-running-back] |
| 55 | DST1 | Houston Texans | HOU | DST | — | 8 | 128 | +10 | — | +10 | 106.6 | +52 | low | team defense; scoring adjusted for this league's yards-allowed brackets; existing D/ST model retained unchanged; FFToday D/ST is audit-only |
| 56 | RB23 | Quinshon Judkins | CLE | RB | 23 | 11 | 208 | +7 | 0.82 | -11 | 48.7 | med | three-down bell cow; 275 carries + 30 catches projected; status 2026-08-02: practicing after ankle dislocation and fibula-fracture surgery; lead role needs padded validation [source: https://www.clevelandbrowns.com/news/quinshon-judkins-feels-confident-in-return-from-injury-entering-year-2] | |
| 57 | QB6 | Joe Burrow | CIN | QB | 30 | 6 | 301 | +6 | 0.72 | -45 | 54.9 | med | pocket QB; 182 rushing yards projected; status 2026-08-02: present in current camp reporting with no high-impact restriction found [source: https://www.bengals.com/news/five-observations-day-4-bengals-training-camp-august-1-2026] | |
| 58 | QB7 | Caleb Williams | CHI | QB | 25 | 10 | 300 | +5 | 0.95 | +34 | 102.6 | +45 | med | rushing QB; 412 rushing yards projected |
| 59 | WR21 | Ladd McConkey | LAC | WR | 25 | 7 | 208 | +4 | 0.91 | +17 | 42.3 | -17 | low | big slot; 76 catches for 956 yards projected |
| 60 | TE8 | Sam LaPorta | DET | TE | 26 | 6 | 164 | +4 | 0.83 | -4 | 83.7 | +24 | low | move TE; 60 catches for 735 yards projected |
| 61 | WR22 | D.J. Moore | BUF | WR | 29 | 7 | 207 | +3 | 0.96 | +29 | 60.4 | med | big slot; 71 catches for 955 yards projected; status 2026-08-02: early Allen chemistry in intermediate downfield and red-zone work [source: https://www.buffalobills.com/news/what-we-learned-about-the-bills-on-day-3-of-training-camp-2026] | |
| 62 | WR23 | Jaylen Waddle | DEN | WR | 28 | 10 | 207 | +3 | 0.88 | +7 | 47.8 | med | big slot; 72 catches for 987 yards projected; status 2026-08-02: intentional passing-game addition alongside Sutton and Engram; target split unresolved [source: https://www.denverbroncos.com/news/broncos-camp-preview-how-will-the-addition-of-wr-jaylen-waddle-elevate-denver-s-passing-game] | |
| 63 | K1 | Brandon Aubrey | DAL | K | — | 14 | 174 | +3 | — | +3 | 129.7 | +67 | low | kicker; stream by the offense's implied team total, not by name; source projection scored with 3.82-points-per-FG distance-mix model |
| 64 | WR24 | Mike Evans | SF | WR | 33 | 8 | 206 | +3 | 0.79 | -15 | 58.5 | low | big slot; 69 catches for 955 yards projected | |
| 65 | QB8 | Bo Nix | DEN | QB | 26 | 10 | 298 | +3 | 0.95 | +32 | 121.2 | +56 | med | rushing QB; 362 rushing yards projected |
| 66 | TE9 | Mark Andrews | BAL | TE | 31 | 13 | 162 | +2 | 0.86 | +0 | 137.9 | +72 | low | move TE; 61 catches for 645 yards projected |
| 67 | QB9 | Jaxson Dart | NYG | QB | 23 | 8 | 297 | +2 | 0.83 | -10 | 106.4 | +39 | med | rushing QB; 564 rushing yards projected |
| 68 | WR25 | Christian Watson | GB | WR | 27 | 11 | 205 | +2 | 0.70 | -37 | 66.3 | low | field-stretching Z; 65 catches for 982 yards projected | |
| 69 | WR26 | Tee Higgins | CIN | WR | 28 | 6 | 204 | +0 | 0.79 | -18 | 38.2 | -31 | med | big slot; 65 catches for 906 yards projected |
| 70 | QB10 | Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | 33 | 14 | 295 | +0 | 0.83 | -13 | 64.9 | med | pocket QB; 161 rushing yards projected | |
| 71 | RB24 | Jaylen Warren | PIT | RB | 28 | 9 | 201 | +0 | 0.91 | +4 | 65.5 | high | early-down committee back; 190 carries + 41 catches projected | |
| 72 | DST2 | Denver Broncos | DEN | DST | — | 10 | 118 | +0 | — | +0 | 96.9 | +25 | low | team defense; scoring adjusted for this league's yards-allowed brackets; existing D/ST model retained unchanged; FFToday D/ST is audit-only |
| 73 | TE10 | Jake Ferguson | DAL | TE | 28 | 14 | 160 | +0 | 0.92 | +9 | 131.4 | +58 | low | move TE; 71 catches for 585 yards projected |
| 74 | K2 | Cameron Dicker | LAC | K | — | 7 | 171 | +0 | — | +0 | 148.4 | +74 | low | kicker; stream by the offense's implied team total, not by name; source projection scored with 3.82-points-per-FG distance-mix model |
| 75 | TE11 | Tucker Kraft | GB | TE | 26 | 11 | 159 | -0 | 0.78 | -16 | 110.1 | +35 | high | move TE; 57 catches for 724 yards projected; status 2026-08-02: ACL-return participation and list status not yet verified [source: https://www.packers.com/news/tucker-kraft-s-goal-is-to-start-week-1-on-no-pitch-count-june-11-2026] |
| 76 | RB25 | David Montgomery | HOU | RB | 29 | 8 | 200 | -1 | 0.87 | -8 | 60.6 | -15 | high | early-down committee back; 217 carries + 34 catches projected; status 2026-08-02: current HOU assignment is unverified by adjudicating official roster or transaction evidence [source: https://www.nfl.com/transactions/league/signings/2026/7] |
| 77 | WR27 | Luther Burden III | CHI | WR | 23 | 10 | 202 | -2 | 0.87 | +0 | 52.3 | -25 | low | big slot; 70 catches for 926 yards projected |
| 78 | WR28 | Rome Odunze | CHI | WR | 24 | 10 | 202 | -2 | 0.85 | -4 | 53.2 | -25 | low | field-stretching Z; 65 catches for 945 yards projected |
| 79 | TE12 | Dallas Goedert | PHI | TE | 32 | 10 | 156 | -3 | 0.78 | -19 | 116.3 | +37 | low | move TE; 58 catches for 625 yards projected; status 2026-08-02: A.J. Brown is with NE; PHI target allocation is unresolved under a new offense [source: https://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/news/eagles-trade-aj-brown-to-the-patriots] |
| 80 | QB11 | Tyler Shough | NO | QB | 27 | 8 | 292 | -4 | 0.74 | -46 | 138.4 | +58 | low | rushing QB; 377 rushing yards projected; status 2026-08-02: named and unquestioned offensive leader [source: https://www.neworleanssaints.com/news/what-to-watch-for-at-new-orleans-saints-training-camp-2026] |
| 81 | QB12 | Jared Goff | DET | QB | 32 | 6 | 291 | -4 | 0.96 | +28 | 103.5 | +22 | low | pocket QB; 50 rushing yards projected |
| 82 | RB26 | TreVeyon Henderson | NE | RB | 24 | 11 | 197 | -4 | 0.91 | +0 | 56.4 | -26 | high | early-down committee back; 182 carries + 36 catches projected |
| 83 | RB27 | Tony Pollard | TEN | RB | 29 | 9 | 197 | -4 | 0.94 | +7 | 63.2 | -20 | med | three-down bell cow; 242 carries + 32 catches projected |
| 84 | QB13 | Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | 28 | 7 | 291 | -4 | 0.89 | +2 | 103.0 | +19 | med | rushing QB; 427 rushing yards projected |
| 85 | QB14 | Trevor Lawrence | JAC | QB | 27 | 7 | 290 | -5 | 0.84 | -14 | 88.9 | med | pocket QB; 301 rushing yards projected | |
| 86 | WR29 | Alec Pierce | IND | WR | 26 | 13 | 198 | -6 | 0.92 | +8 | 63.1 | -23 | high | field-stretching Z; 66 catches for 1017 yards projected; status 2026-08-02: active/PUP and not practicing [source: https://www.colts.com/news/cj-allen-alec-pierce-pup-list-injury-updates-status-2026-training-camp] |
| 87 | WR30 | DK Metcalf | PIT | WR | 29 | 9 | 197 | -6 | 0.89 | +1 | 64.7 | -22 | low | field-stretching Z; 67 catches for 944 yards projected |
| 88 | DST3 | Seattle Seahawks | SEA | DST | — | 11 | 112 | -6 | — | -6 | 97.1 | low | team defense; scoring adjusted for this league's yards-allowed brackets; existing D/ST model retained unchanged; FFToday D/ST is audit-only | |
| 89 | QB15 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | 31 | 5 | 289 | -7 | 0.89 | +0 | 99.8 | med | pocket QB; 315 rushing yards projected | |
| 90 | QB16 | Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 27 | 8 | 287 | -8 | 0.80 | -32 | 80.8 | low | pocket QB; 286 rushing yards projected | |
| 91 | K3 | Ka'imi Fairbairn | HOU | K | — | 8 | 162 | -9 | — | -9 | 143.7 | +53 | low | kicker; stream by the offense's implied team total, not by name; source projection scored with 3.82-points-per-FG distance-mix model |
| 92 | WR31 | Terry McLaurin | WAS | WR | 31 | 7 | 195 | -9 | 0.86 | -9 | 42.1 | -50 | high | field-stretching Z; 65 catches for 937 yards projected |
| 93 | QB17 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB | 39 | 11 | 286 | -9 | 0.92 | +7 | 88.5 | low | pocket QB; 22 rushing yards projected | |
| 94 | WR32 | Michael Pittman Jr. | PIT | WR | 29 | 9 | 194 | -10 | 0.93 | +7 | 71.4 | -23 | low | big slot; 76 catches for 877 yards projected |
| 95 | TE13 | Dalton Schultz | HOU | TE | 30 | 8 | 150 | -10 | 0.93 | +1 | 173.8 | +79 | low | move TE; 67 catches for 646 yards projected |
| 96 | WR33 | Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI | WR | 24 | 14 | 193 | -10 | 0.85 | -12 | 65.8 | -30 | med | field-stretching Z; 64 catches for 933 yards projected; status 2026-08-02: foot issue monitor with no current designation or timetable [source: https://www.azcardinals.com/news/marvin-harrison-jr-finds-greater-appreciation-after-injury-filled-season] |
| 97 | K4 | Jason Myers | SEA | K | — | 11 | 159 | -12 | — | -12 | 141.8 | +45 | low | kicker; stream by the offense's implied team total, not by name; source projection scored with 3.82-points-per-FG distance-mix model |
| 98 | TE14 | Hunter Henry | NE | TE | 32 | 11 | 147 | -12 | 0.89 | -9 | 154.5 | +56 | low | move TE; 55 catches for 624 yards projected |
| 99 | RB28 | Chuba Hubbard | CAR | RB | 27 | 5 | 188 | -13 | 0.90 | -14 | 77.8 | -21 | med | early-down committee back; 217 carries + 34 catches projected; status 2026-08-02: healthy clear rushing leader with Brooks return risk remaining [source: https://www.panthers.com/news/panthers-pre-training-camp-2026-positional-preview-offense] |
| 100 | TE15 | Dalton Kincaid | BUF | TE | 27 | 7 | 146 | -13 | 0.81 | -23 | 146.7 | +47 | low | move TE; 52 catches for 645 yards projected |
| 101 | WR34 | Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | 31 | 10 | 190 | -14 | 0.93 | +2 | 65.0 | -36 | low | big slot; 63 catches for 848 yards projected |
| 102 | TE16 | Isaiah Likely | NYG | TE | 26 | 8 | 146 | -14 | 0.81 | -24 | 141.1 | +39 | low | move TE; 56 catches for 656 yards projected |
| 103 | TE17 | Juwan Johnson | NO | TE | 30 | 8 | 146 | -14 | 0.87 | -14 | 160.3 | +57 | low | move TE; 60 catches for 676 yards projected |
| 104 | DST4 | Minnesota Vikings | MIN | DST | — | 6 | 103 | -15 | — | -15 | 129.0 | +25 | low | team defense; scoring adjusted for this league's yards-allowed brackets; existing D/ST model retained unchanged; FFToday D/ST is audit-only |
| 105 | RB29 | Jadarian Price | SEA | RB | 23 | 11 | 185 | -16 | 0.82 | -34 | 65.8 | -39 | high | early-down committee back; 195 carries + 31 catches projected; status 2026-08-02: open-camp competitor with Holani and Wilson; Charbonnet return timing unresolved [source: https://www.seahawks.com/news/training-camp-storylines-does-rookie-jadarian-price-win-the-starting-job] |
| 106 | K5 | Wil Lutz | DEN | K | — | 10 | 154 | -17 | — | -17 | 176.1 | +70 | low | kicker; stream by the offense's implied team total, not by name; source projection scored with 3.82-points-per-FG distance-mix model |
| 107 | DST5 | Philadelphia Eagles | PHI | DST | — | 10 | 100 | -18 | — | -18 | 140.3 | +33 | low | team defense; scoring adjusted for this league's yards-allowed brackets; existing D/ST model retained unchanged; FFToday D/ST is audit-only |
| 108 | K6 | Chase McLaughlin | TB | K | — | 10 | 152 | -18 | — | -18 | 157.4 | +49 | low | kicker; stream by the offense's implied team total, not by name; source projection scored with 3.82-points-per-FG distance-mix model |
| 109 | WR35 | Jayden Reed | GB | WR | 26 | 11 | 184 | -19 | 0.77 | -39 | 91.0 | -18 | med | big slot; 66 catches for 815 yards projected |
| 110 | RB30 | Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | RB | 28 | 11 | 182 | -20 | 0.81 | -41 | 71.8 | -38 | high | early-down committee back; 163 carries + 38 catches projected; status 2026-08-02: planned limited-practice workload; no injury diagnosis established [source: https://www.patriots.com/news/transcript-head-coach-mike-vrabel-press-conference-8-1-x6174] |
| 111 | TE18 | Pat Freiermuth | PIT | TE | 28 | 9 | 140 | -20 | 0.84 | -25 | — | — | low | move TE; 53 catches for 566 yards projected |
| 112 | K7 | Eddy Pineiro | SF | K | — | 8 | 151 | -20 | — | -20 | 156.8 | +45 | low | kicker; stream by the offense's implied team total, not by name; source projection scored with 3.82-points-per-FG distance-mix model |
| 113 | TE19 | Greg Dulcich | MIA | TE | 26 | 6 | 139 | -21 | 0.43 | -94 | 169.8 | +57 | low | move TE; 54 catches for 606 yards projected |
| 114 | TE20 | George Kittle | SF | TE | 33 | 8 | 138 | -21 | 0.83 | -28 | 109.5 | high | move TE; 53 catches for 615 yards projected; status 2026-08-02: active/PUP with Achilles recovery; Week 1 unresolved [source: https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-news-roundup-latest-league-updates-from-saturday-july-25] | |
| 115 | K8 | Harrison Butker | KC | K | — | 5 | 150 | -21 | — | -21 | 167.0 | +52 | low | kicker; stream by the offense's implied team total, not by name; source projection scored with 3.82-points-per-FG distance-mix model |
| 116 | WR36 | Carnell Tate | TEN | WR | 22 | 9 | 182 | -22 | 0.85 | -24 | 73.3 | -43 | med | big slot; 65 catches for 867 yards projected |
| 117 | WR37 | Wan'Dale Robinson | TEN | WR | 26 | 9 | 181 | -23 | 0.92 | -11 | 78.4 | -39 | med | big slot; 77 catches for 796 yards projected |
| 118 | DST6 | Los Angeles Chargers | LAC | DST | — | 7 | 94 | -23 | — | -23 | 148.4 | +30 | low | team defense; scoring adjusted for this league's yards-allowed brackets; existing D/ST model retained unchanged; FFToday D/ST is audit-only |
| 119 | DST7 | Buffalo Bills | BUF | DST | — | 7 | 93 | -25 | — | -25 | 163.1 | +44 | low | team defense; scoring adjusted for this league's yards-allowed brackets; existing D/ST model retained unchanged; FFToday D/ST is audit-only |
| 120 | K9 | Will Reichard | MIN | K | — | 6 | 146 | -25 | — | -25 | 163.7 | +44 | low | kicker; stream by the offense's implied team total, not by name; source projection scored with 3.82-points-per-FG distance-mix model |
| 121 | RB31 | Rachaad White | WAS | RB | 28 | 7 | 176 | -25 | 0.93 | -21 | 100.5 | -20 | high | early-down committee back; 141 carries + 44 catches projected; status 2026-08-02: multi-back design with White receiving utility JCM lead-back possibility and Allen short-yardage competition; role context: multi-back conditional roles [source: https://www.commanders.com/news/commanders-players-to-watch-2026-training-camp] |
| 122 | K10 | Cam Little | JAC | K | — | 7 | 145 | -26 | — | -26 | 159.6 | +38 | low | kicker; stream by the offense's implied team total, not by name; source projection scored with 3.82-points-per-FG distance-mix model |
| 123 | TE21 | T.J. Hockenson | MIN | TE | 29 | 6 | 134 | -26 | 0.80 | -38 | 155.8 | +33 | low | move TE; 59 catches for 568 yards projected |
| 124 | WR38 | Jakobi Meyers | JAC | WR | 30 | 7 | 177 | -26 | 0.90 | -18 | 80.7 | -43 | med | big slot; 67 catches for 782 yards projected |
| 125 | TE22 | Brenton Strange | JAC | TE | 26 | 7 | 132 | -27 | 0.69 | -55 | 150.2 | +25 | low | move TE; 51 catches for 571 yards projected |
| 126 | QB18 | Malik Willis | MIA | QB | 27 | 6 | 268 | -28 | 0.39 | -181 | 161.4 | +35 | low | rushing QB; 657 rushing yards projected; status 2026-08-02: presumptive starter with volatile receiver-room context [source: https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/dolphins-quarterback-malik-willis-prepares-for-first-training-camp-as-a-starter/] |
| 127 | K11 | Tyler Loop | BAL | K | — | 13 | 143 | -28 | — | -28 | 160.4 | +33 | low | kicker; stream by the offense's implied team total, not by name; source projection scored with 3.82-points-per-FG distance-mix model |
| 128 | WR39 | Chris Godwin | TB | WR | 30 | 10 | 176 | -28 | 0.70 | -62 | 86.0 | -42 | low | big slot; 68 catches for 779 yards projected |
| 129 | K12 | Cairo Santos | CHI | K | — | 10 | 143 | -28 | — | -28 | 151.9 | +23 | low | kicker; stream by the offense's implied team total, not by name; source projection scored with 3.82-points-per-FG distance-mix model |
| 130 | RB32 | J.K. Dobbins | DEN | RB | 28 | 10 | 173 | -28 | 0.56 | -102 | 90.7 | -39 | high | early-down committee back; 206 carries + 16 catches projected; status 2026-08-02: entering-camp RB-room leader; complementary share remains unresolved [source: https://www.denverbroncos.com/news/broncos-camp-preview-j-k-dobbins-leads-denver-s-rb-room-as-broncos-prioritize-a-consistent-rushing-attack] |
Replacement baselines used
Computed from this league's own roster (_PLAN.md §1.2), not from a published source's assumed lineup. In this confirmed 10-team, one-FLEX format, replacement is RB24, WR26, TE10 and QB10; K2 and DST2 express the documented streaming judgment.
| Pos | Baseline rank used | Baseline pts | Best player's VOR | Per week vs replacement | Per week vs the 10th-best at the position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 24 | 201 | +166 | 9.8 | 6.2 |
| WR | 26 | 204 | +136 | 8.0 | 5.5 |
| TE | 10 | 160 | +94 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| QB | 10 | 295 | +71 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| K | 2 | 171 | +3 | 0.2 | 1.7 |
| DST | 2 | 118 | +10 | 0.6 | 2.8 |
Read the fifth column for what a position is worth. It is the per-week edge the best player at each position holds over replacement — the last player at that position you could still start, which is the 24th running back and the 26th receiver once the FLEX is accounted for, but only the 10th tight end and the 10th quarterback. That is the table behind Value over replacement in fantasy football.
The sixth column is a different and narrower question — the edge over the 10th-best player at the position, one per team. For tight end and quarterback the two columns are the same number, because only ten of each get started. For running back and receiver the fifth column is larger, and it is the one that matters, because the FLEX means more than ten of each are started every week.
The K and D/ST rows in the VOR column are deliberately small: those are the two positions the waiver wire restocks every week, so their draft value is far below their positional edge.
The turn map
Derived, never hand-edited (_PLAN.md Gate E): board rank crossed with ADP at each of Andrew's 16 picks. Likely gone counts players whose ADP is inside the pick; likely there are the best boarded players whose ADP is at or past it.
Kickers and defences are left out of this table on purpose. They are taken in the last two rounds by rule, not because value says so — see The last two rounds — kicker and defence.
| Pick | Board rank of the best player likely still there | Names |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Jahmyr Gibbs (RB1), Bijan Robinson (RB2), Christian McCaffrey (RB3) |
| 20 | 8 | Brock Bowers (TE1), Trey McBride (TE2), Josh Allen (QB1) |
| 21 | 8 | Brock Bowers (TE1), Trey McBride (TE2), Josh Allen (QB1) |
| 40 | 33 | Colston Loveland (TE3), Tyler Warren (TE4), Drake Maye (QB2) |
| 41 | 33 | Colston Loveland (TE3), Tyler Warren (TE4), Drake Maye (QB2) |
| 60 | 34 | Tyler Warren (TE4), Harold Fannin Jr. (TE5), Kyle Pitts (TE6) |
| 61 | 34 | Tyler Warren (TE4), Harold Fannin Jr. (TE5), Kyle Pitts (TE6) |
| 80 | 41 | Kyle Pitts (TE6), Travis Kelce (TE7), Caleb Williams (QB7) |
| 81 | 53 | Travis Kelce (TE7), Caleb Williams (QB7), Sam LaPorta (TE8) |
| 100 | 58 | Caleb Williams (QB7), Bo Nix (QB8), Mark Andrews (TE9) |
| 101 | 58 | Caleb Williams (QB7), Bo Nix (QB8), Mark Andrews (TE9) |
| 120 | 65 | Bo Nix (QB8), Mark Andrews (TE9), Jake Ferguson (TE10) |
| 121 | 65 | Bo Nix (QB8), Mark Andrews (TE9), Jake Ferguson (TE10) |
| 140 | 95 | Dalton Schultz (TE13), Hunter Henry (TE14), Dalton Kincaid (TE15) |
| 141 | 95 | Dalton Schultz (TE13), Hunter Henry (TE14), Dalton Kincaid (TE15) |
| 160 | 95 | Dalton Schultz (TE13), Juwan Johnson (TE17), Pat Freiermuth (TE18) |
Open questions
- ADP here is a proxy. ESPN's own ADP could not be extracted programmatically, and ADP is platform-specific. Mock drafts on ESPN are the substitute measurement.
- Market ADP is a weak signal for a late-August draft. This board must be regenerated within 48 hours of the draft;
expires: 2026-08-09is the audit's tripwire. - Every row of
players.csvstill projects 17 games, soProj ptsandVORare unadjusted;Adj VORis where availability is priced, and it is a model that counts a missed game however it was caused — a suspension reads the same as a torn ligament. The rows where that distinction matters are listed in Availability and injury risk.