Live 10-team decision status — 2026-08-02
10-team decision data: ADP 24.2, projection 259.9 points, risk med. No current status establishes starter/workload share; the bell-cow line is a model, not confirmed camp usage.
Source: promoted Data/players.csv and Data/current-status.csv. This section supersedes every older July ADP, projection-source date, risk flag, pick-band/turn, and current-role assertion below. Older explanatory prose remains only as context.
Reading rule: material below this block is historical/model context unless it repeats the promoted values and 10-team baseline above; it is not live draft instruction.
The role
He is projected as a three-down bell cow: on the field every down, taking carries (handoffs) on early downs and staying out there to catch passes on third. The 56-catch projection is the attraction in full PPR, but Arizona's actual rookie workload is not yet confirmed.
The number
The gated August-2 candidate file lists 259.9 projected points, 246 carries, 56 catches, and 10-team proxy ADP 24.2. These are forecasts, not observed NFL production; the old 24/25-band comparison is historical only.
The risk
The CSV flags him med — the only one of these six not marked low. The driver is that his case rests on the receiving half of the role, and receiving usage is the part of a back's job most dependent on a coaching decision rather than on depth-chart position. Strip the catches back toward the other bell cows' totals and he is the third-best version of the same archetype at the same price. The August 30 cutdown is when that resolves. Underneath all of it sits a plainer problem: he has never played an NFL game, so there is no usage and no availability record to check either the projection or the risk label against.
The context
Observed, from Data/player_context.csv (nflverse, OverTheCap; retrieved 2026-07-25).
He is 21.3 on the September 9 opener and has no NFL history at all: no games played, no injury-report weeks, no 2025 snaps, carries or targets. The availability figure carried against his name on the board, 0.823, is therefore not a measurement of him — it is the running-back base rate standing in for missing data, a model output. Arizona's third-overall investment is meaningful draft capital (Draft capital dominance), but it does not independently establish the projected workload; that remains a model pending current usage evidence. His rookie deal is fully guaranteed at 53.0 million, 13.3 million a year, with free agency in 2030.
Earlier candidate note — superseded
ARI RB — ADP 24.2; 259.9 points; medium-risk bell-cow model. No status record establishes starter/share; model only.
Provenance: Data/research/candidates/2026-08-02/players.candidate.csv and Data/current-status.csv. Current-status evidence is narrower than the candidate model.
Open questions
- The
riskcolumn is a single-word label with no stated methodology; Evidence and confidence is the note that governs how much weight to put on it. - Bye week 14 is the last week of the regular season, when a top-six finish is being decided — worth checking against your other starters in Bye-week planning.