Current 10-team snapshot
The promoted Data/players.csv row lists SF RB, bye 8, ADP 5.0 (ffcalc-ppr-10tm-2026-08-02), 345.9 projected points over 17 games, a reduced-workload gate, and med model risk (279 carries, 82 catches projected). It supersedes earlier three-down/low-risk presentation. The canonical ledger accepts high-confidence early-camp runner/receiver participation, but separately records that San Francisco plans a reduced 2026 workload with younger backs receiving opportunity. Neither source establishes the touch split; retain a preseason-rotation gate and do not force a projection change from camp participation alone.
The role
The candidate model assigns the same three-down outcome as the backs ahead of him. Its 82 projected catches would matter greatly in full PPR, but the current workload is not settled; describe that stat line as a candidate assumption rather than a verified touch forecast.
The number
345.9 projected points, from the gated 2026-08-02 candidate feed—21 behind the top candidate, about 1.2 a week across 17 games. It is a model projection, not an observation. Given the documented rotation branch, do not treat that modest difference as evidence that the workload is settled.
The risk
His promoted risk flag is med, and the live reason is no longer opaque: a reduced-workload gate with younger backs receiving opportunity. The model's 17-game point total remains a forecast, not a reason to erase that gate. Historical usage and availability are context, not proof of the 2026 touch split; see Availability and injury risk.
The context
He is 30.3 at the September 9 opener, nearly four years older than anyone else in this tier, and was the eighth pick of the 2017 draft — nine seasons ago, for a different team. He played 16 games in 2023, four in 2024 and all 17 in 2025: fourteen missed. The report listed him Out twice and Questionable or Doubtful four weeks, naming a calf, an oblique and an Achilles, but twelve of the fourteen absences never appear on it, so the file cannot call them medical. His 2025 argues against the discount — 81.7 percent of San Francisco's snaps (plays, see Fantasy football glossary), 311 carries, 102 catches on 129 targets: more of each than either back ranked above him. The projection allows 82 catches, twenty fewer. He is paid about $19 million a year, deal voiding 2028.
All observed, from Data/player_context.csv, retrieved 2026-07-25.
Open questions
- The 21-point discount still carries no stated reason. His 2025 usage argues against it and his age argues for it, and a projection column cannot tell me which one it encoded.
- His week 8 bye is the only one in the tier that misses a crunch week — how much should one clean week in fourteen be worth against a dozen catches?