A big slot in Jacksonville, and the one player in this band where the market price and the projection openly contradict each other.
August 2 10-team update
10-team ADP: 77.1; projection: 158.6 points; model risk: high. The Jacksonville target hierarchy remains unsettled; no player-specific health exception is in the status ledger. This block supersedes earlier numeric, risk, and turn language.
The role
He works from inside the formation on shorter throws, which in full PPR is a better job than the yardage suggests, since every catch pays a full point before a yard is gained. A target is a throw in his direction, counted whether or not he catches it (see Fantasy football glossary). The problem is not the job; it is how many other people in Jacksonville's file are competing for the same throws, including a field-stretching deep threat and a second big slot.
The number
ADP 77.1, from the promoted Data/players.csv (FFCalculator 10-team PPR proxy, not ESPN's own). It is a market price, not a settled Jacksonville depth-chart conclusion.
The risk
His risk flag is high, and this is why: one offense has a fixed number of throws to give, and Jacksonville's target tree remains unsettled. Any pick here is a bet that the market knows something about the pecking order that current camp evidence has not established. His 2025 target share is historical context, not a present target-allocation guarantee.
The context
Historical context: Jacksonville took him 185th overall in 2023, and he rose from 8 games as a rookie to 16 in 2025. In that 2025 season he played 61.9% of snaps, with 95 targets, 58 catches and 847 yards (17.4% of team throws). Those observed figures explain the model's 58-catch forecast but do not settle the current target order.
Observed historical context: games, injury-report weeks, draft slot and 2025 usage; not a current role report.
Open questions
- Is the market pricing reported summer usage, or is it chasing last season's ending role?
- If you want a Jacksonville receiver at all, why not the teammate who projects higher and costs a round or two more?