Why this is one table and not thirty-two notes
The full version of this exercise is to model each team's touch budget — the fixed number of carries and targets an offense will produce, split into shares across its players (The conserved team touch budget, Opportunity share). It is a real technique, and the payoff is real: you find players the market has priced wrong.
But that payoff is exactly the thing a first-time drafter should buy from consensus rather than build. You have no way to check a share estimate against what a coach will actually do, and a wrong share estimate feels identical to a right one. So this desk carries the cheap, load-bearing parts — the bye, the handful of players who matter, and a one-line scheme signal — and skips the thirteen hundred allocation rows.
Pace and pass-lean matter here in a way they do not in basketball
Your basketball instinct says pace is a multiplier: a fast team runs maybe 8% more possessions than a slow one, everyone's box score inflates a little, and it barely moves a ranking.
Football is not like that. An NFL team runs somewhere around 60 offensive plays a game, and a fast, pass-leaning offense can run meaningfully more of them than a slow, run-leaning one — and each pass play creates a target (a throw in a receiver's direction, see Fantasy football glossary) while each run creates a carry. Pace and pass-lean therefore determine how many scoring opportunities exist at all before anyone's share of them is argued about. In basketball everyone on the floor shares the same inflated pie. In football the size of the pie and its split between running and throwing are set by the play-caller, and they decide which positions on that team are even worth rostering.
That is why a new coordinator moves an offense's fantasy output more than a new player does, and why the last column below is a scheme line rather than a talent line.
Two of these columns are data. Two are estimates.
**Bye** is read out of `Data/players.csv` and verified programmatically — trust it. **The 2–4 players who matter** begin with that team's highest `proj_points` players on the draft board, then apply the current role and availability gates in this note. The archetype language is context, not a fresh projection. Kickers and defences are excluded on purpose; you stream those by Implied team total, not by team. Current role and health sentences are integrated from `Data/current-status.csv`; each ledger row carries its source URL plus the immutable captured-body path and hash. What I checked and when summarizes the promoted source freeze. **Pace** is a judgement call at low confidence. Where I could not form one honestly, it says `unclear`. **Pass-lean** is a coarse tercile of a proxy — the share of each team's projected points coming from receivers and tight ends rather than running backs. That is a projection artefact, not observed play-calling. **OL tier** (offensive line — the five blockers, whose quality persists across seasons more than almost anything else in football) is judgement at low confidence, `unclear` where I have nothing. Do not treat the middle two columns as measurements. They are context for reading the fourth column, not inputs to a decision.Byes were checked against Data/players.csv on 2026-08-02. Every team's bye below matches the bye value on all of that team's rows. Byes fall only in weeks 5–11, 13 and 14, and week 11 is the crunch with six teams off (Atlanta, Cleveland, Green Bay, Los Angeles Rams, New England, Seattle) — see Bye-week planning. In a 10-team league the weekly replacement pool is deeper, but a six-team bye still warrants draft and waiver planning.
The table
| Team | Bye | Pace / pass-lean | OL tier | The 2–4 players who matter | One line on this offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 14 | unclear / balanced | unclear | Trey McBride (move TE), Marvin Harrison Jr. (field-stretching Z), Jeremiyah Love (lead-back projection), Jacoby Brissett (provisional QB input) | McBride is the clearest current volume role. QB1 has not been named and Love's workload is a projection rather than established camp usage. |
| Atlanta Falcons | 11 | provisional / unclear | top-third | Bijan Robinson (lead back; participation monitor), Drake London (alpha X), Kyle Pitts (move TE) | Stefanski installation and the Penix/Tagovailoa QB outcome are unresolved. Brian Robinson is the complementary short-yardage variable, not evidence to manufacture a Bijan split. |
| Baltimore Ravens | 13 | fast / provisional | top-third | Lamar Jackson (rushing QB), Derrick Henry (goal-line back), Zay Flowers (No. 1 target), Mark Andrews (TE1 opportunity) | A new Doyle offense is being installed. Flowers remains the stated top target; Andrews has a real post-departure opportunity but no verified volume allocation yet. |
| Buffalo Bills | 7 | fast / run-lean | top-third | Josh Allen (rushing QB), James Cook (lead RB), D.J. Moore (early Allen-chemistry signal), Khalil Shakir (target competitor) | Moore has shown intermediate, downfield and red-zone chemistry with Allen, but camp does not establish a settled WR1 or change Cook's receiving share. |
| Carolina Panthers | 5 | slow / run-lean | middle | Bryce Young (QB1), Tetairoa McMillan (top-two WR), Jalen Coker (top-two WR), Chuba Hubbard (clear rushing leader) | Hubbard is the clear early-camp lead; McMillan and Coker are the top two receivers. Brooks' recovery and supplementary backs keep exact workload shares conditional. |
| Chicago Bears | 10 | average / balanced | middle | Caleb Williams (rushing QB), D'Andre Swift (lead back in tandem), Rome Odunze (field-stretching Z), Colston Loveland (move TE) | Swift and Kyle Monangai form a real tandem. The pass tree includes Odunze, Burden, Loveland and Kmet, so no target share is settled. |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6 | fast / pass-lean | bottom-third | Ja'Marr Chase (alpha X), Joe Burrow (pocket QB), Chase Brown (lead RB; receiving watch), Tee Higgins (big slot) | The passing foundation remains intact. Brown's receiver-style offseason work supports a receiving-ceiling watch, not an automatic catch or workload increase. |
| Cleveland Browns | 11 | slow / provisional | unclear | Quinshon Judkins (lead/committee-uncertain), Dylan Sampson (RB competitor), Jerry Jeudy (veteran WR anchor), Harold Fannin Jr. (move TE) | Watson and Sanders have split first-team work; no QB1 is named. Judkins is practicing after major ankle surgery, but Sampson makes a three-down claim untenable before padded work. |
| Dallas Cowboys | 14 | average / pass-lean | middle | Dak Prescott (pocket QB), CeeDee Lamb (alpha X), Javonte Williams (starting RB), George Pickens (field-stretching Z) | Williams is the starter, while Malik Davis, Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah remain an unresolved RB2 contingency. Pickens is expected to participate; do not turn absence-qualified spring reps into a handcuff verdict. |
| Denver Broncos | 10 | average / balanced | top-third | Bo Nix (rushing QB), Jaylen Waddle (big slot), Courtland Sutton (big slot), J.K. Dobbins (early-down committee back) | Rushing QB plus a true backfield committee: the receivers are the clean way to buy this offense. |
| Detroit Lions | 6 | fast / balanced | talented; RT unsettled | Jahmyr Gibbs (planned bell cow; camp monitor), Amon-Ra St. Brown (alpha X), Jared Goff (pocket QB), Jameson Williams (field-stretching Z) | Montgomery's trade made Gibbs the declared lead back, with Pacheco the complement. Gibbs is currently present but not practicing with a back issue; do not infer a regular-season absence from that camp status. |
| Green Bay Packers | 11 | average / pass-lean | middle | Jordan Love (pocket QB), Josh Jacobs (lead RB), Tucker Kraft (return-timeline gate), Christian Watson (field-stretching Z) | Targets remain spread. Kraft's ACL-return participation/list status is unverified, so treat his Week 1 role as conditional rather than cleared. |
| Houston Texans | 8 | unclear / balanced | bottom-third | C.J. Stroud (pocket QB), Nico Collins (field-stretching Z), Jayden Higgins (watch), Woody Marks (watch) | No dated camp role change supports a projection move. David Montgomery's Houston assignment is under authoritative roster review and is deliberately not used as an offense claim. |
| Indianapolis Colts | 13 | average / balanced | top-third | Jonathan Taylor (three-down bell cow), Daniel Jones (full camp participant), Alec Pierce (active/PUP), Tyler Warren (move TE) | Jones is a full participant after Achilles recovery. Pierce is active/PUP and not practicing; Downs and Warren are conditional beneficiaries, not automatic target-share winners. |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 7 | unclear / pass-lean | unclear | Trevor Lawrence (pocket QB), Bhayshul Tuten (projected early-down lead), Brian Thomas Jr. (downfield focal point), Travis Hunter (role unresolved) | Tuten's three-down claim is not established: Rodriguez is the short-yardage and LeQuint Allen the third-down competitor. Thomas has the clearest current chemistry signal; Hunter's offensive workload remains open. |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 5 | average / pass-lean | middle | Patrick Mahomes (camp-cleared pocket QB), Kenneth Walker (unverified workload gate), Rashee Rice (camp-cleared alpha X), Travis Kelce (move TE) | Mahomes and Rice are cleared for camp after knee recoveries, with ongoing monitoring separate from a points change. Walker participated in mandatory-minicamp 11-on-11, but his current workload split remains unverified. |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 7 | average / run-lean | middle | Justin Herbert (rushing QB), Omarion Hampton (three-down bell cow), Ladd McConkey (big slot), Oronde Gadsden (receiving/move TE) | The staff's run lean still concentrates the core value. Gadsden has a genuine receiving-TE breakout signal, though routes must validate a volume change. |
| Los Angeles Rams | 11 | fast / balanced | middle | Puka Nacua (active), Davante Adams (active premium WR), Matthew Stafford (modified practice plan), Kyren Williams (lead RB) | Nacua and Adams are both active; this is not a one-alpha monopoly. Stafford's modified schedule is maintenance, not a projected absence, and no Kyren role change is verified. |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 13 | unclear / pass-lean | unclear | Ashton Jeanty (three-down bell cow), Brock Bowers (move TE), Kirk Cousins (camp-opening QB1), Fernando Mendoza (developmental competitor) | Cousins opened camp as QB1 and Mendoza in a developmental role; the full-season order is not final. Preserve the skill players' baseline roles without attaching a settled season-long QB outcome or volume change. |
| Miami Dolphins | 6 | fast / run-lean | bottom-third | Malik Willis (presumptive rushing-QB starter), De'Von Achane (lead-RB projection), Greg Dulcich (TE watch) | Willis is the presumptive starter after the Tua departure. Waddle's trade and Hill's release leave an open receiver room; no named beneficiary has earned a target-share upgrade. |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6 | unclear / provisional | middle | Justin Jefferson (alpha X), Jordan Addison (impact WR), Jauan Jennings (target competitor), Aaron Jones/Jordan Mason (1a/1b) | Murray and McCarthy remain an unresolved QB competition. Jones and Mason are a stated committee, and Jennings expands the target tree; do not model a settled pace or starter. |
| New England Patriots | 11 | unclear / provisional | unclear | Drake Maye (locked QB1), A.J. Brown (primary WR), Hunter Henry (red-zone/third-down signal), Henderson/Stevenson (committee) | Padded-camp work supports a credible multi-level passing game and the Maye–Brown connection. The RB split remains unresolved; it is not a reason to call either a proven loser. |
| New Orleans Saints | 8 | unclear / balanced | bottom-third | Tyler Shough (QB1), Chris Olave (active alpha), Travis Etienne (lead-committee hypothesis), Alvin Kamara (committee competitor) | Shough is the unquestioned leader, while Etienne and Kamara are a real workload-allocation question. No current evidence supports Etienne as an unqualified three-down back. |
| New York Giants | 8 | unclear / run-lean | unclear | Jaxson Dart (rushing QB), Malik Nabers (ACL-recovery monitor), Isaiah Likely (TE1 candidate), Cam Skattebo (lead-back hypothesis) | Nabers avoided PUP but is not a full-practice clearance after ACL recovery. Skattebo/Tracy usage is unconfirmed, and Likely is a conditional beneficiary if Nabers' ramp lingers. |
| New York Jets | 13 | slow / pass-lean | unclear | Garrett Wilson (undisputed WR1), Breece Hall (RB1), Geno Smith (QB1), Mason Taylor (TE competition) | Hall is the named RB1, not a proven every-down lock; Wilson is the undisputed WR1. Taylor's target path remains contested despite possible multi-TE usage. |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 10 | fast / provisional | top-third | Jalen Hurts (rushing QB), Saquon Barkley (primary back), DeVonta Smith (most productive returning WR), Dallas Goedert (TE1) | A.J. Brown is in New England and the new offense makes target allocation unresolved. Smith, Lemon, Wicks/Cooper and the TEs must share the vacated work; Barkley's supporting rotation is also unsettled. |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9 | provisional / unclear | middle | Aaron Rodgers (pocket QB), DK Metcalf (primary WR), Michael Pittman Jr. (secondary WR), Jaylen Warren (committee back) | The new McCarthy/Angelichio system has under-center, play-action and movement intent, but not a proven pace or run rate. Metcalf is the leading returning receiver; no rapport narrative justifies a points move. |
| Seattle Seahawks | 11 | average / pass-lean | continuity-positive; exact tier unclear | Jaxon Smith-Njigba (alpha X), Sam Darnold (QB1), Jadarian Price (open competitor), Zach Charbonnet (PUP; return unknown) | Price, Holani and Wilson are in an open RB competition, while Charbonnet's ACL return is unresolved. JSN remains the cleanest target role; do not assume Price's workload. |
| San Francisco 49ers | 8 | average / run-lean | middle | Christian McCaffrey (active; workload monitor), Brock Purdy (pocket QB), George Kittle (active/PUP), Mike Evans (target competitor) | Pearsall is out for the season after knee surgery. Kittle's Week 1 is unresolved, but no single beneficiary is established; McCaffrey is active with a possible reduced-workload plan to monitor. |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 10 | Robinson installation / provisional | top-third | Baker Mayfield (pocket/volume passer), Bucky Irving (lead back), Kenneth Gainwell (receiving competitor), Emeka Egbuka (flexible Z) | New terminology, motion and wide-zone are being installed. Irving leads, but Gainwell and Tucker keep receiving and goal-line allocation unproven; Egbuka is carving out a flexible role. |
| Tennessee Titans | 9 | unclear / provisional | bottom-third | Cam Ward (pocket QB), Pollard/Spears (lead committee and receiving hedge), Wan'Dale Robinson (slot chemistry), Carnell Tate (vertical rookie) | New Saleh/Daboll leadership makes the former pass-lean label unsafe. Pollard's lead role is supported but his three-down role is not; Tate is a vertical outside rookie, not a settled high-catch slot. |
| Washington Commanders | 7 | average / provisional | middle | Jayden Daniels (healthy rushing QB), Terry McLaurin (rebound-range WR), Rachaad White (committee contender), Chigoziem Okonkwo (move TE) | New staff wants more ground-game involvement, but White/Croskey-Merritt and a crowded RB room are unresolved. McLaurin is active but the expanded pass-catching group keeps his range wide. |
How to actually use this
Three uses, in order of value.
- Bye planning. Before the draft, and again after it, count how many of your starters share a bye. Week 11 is the one to watch. Nothing else in this table is as reliable.
- Sanity-checking a pick. If the board offers you a running back and this table says his team is a committee behind a bottom-third line, that is a reason to prefer the next name. It is not a reason to override the board by more than a pick or two.
- Reading a depth chart. When you look a team up in Reading an NFL depth chart, this row tells you whether the offense throws enough for its third receiver to matter.
What this table is not for is finding value the market missed. That is what the touch-budget model does, and you should not be running it this year.
Open questions
- The confidence gap between columns is real and uncomfortable. Bye and the player list are read out of
players.csvand verified; pace and OL tier are my judgement, and the pass-lean tercile is a proxy computed from projections rather than from play-calling. If a pace or line estimate contradicts a consensus source, believe the source, not this table. - Coordinator and play-caller assignments for 2026 could not be confirmed against a primary source, so the last column describes the shape the projections imply rather than naming a scheme with a person attached. That is the weakest claim in the note.
- Depth charts move at the August 30 cutdown, and the "players who matter" list remains anchored to a pre-preseason projection snapshot. Current camp status is integrated above only as role/availability context; a committee resolving into a bell cow, a PUP activation, or a named QB1 should trigger a new source-backed projection pass.