August 2 10-team update
10-team ADP: 26.0; projection: 257.9 points; model risk: med. (FFCalculator PPR 10-team ADP and FFToday projection snapshot, 2026-08-02/2026-07-30.) Pick 26 is after the 20/21 turn, so he is not an assumed selection. His workload is unverified: minicamp confirms 11-on-11 participation, not a split. Require padded-camp or preseason third-down and goal-line evidence before paying a bell-cow price. Status source This block supersedes earlier numeric, risk, and turn language.
The role
The projection models him as a three-down bell cow, but that is a forecast rather than an established current role. The verified report shows that he took part in June 11-on-11 work; it does not settle passing-down, goal-line, or total-touch shares. In full PPR, that missing receiving-work evidence matters as much as the carry forecast. The earlier categorical bell-cow description is historical model language, not a live depth-chart conclusion.
The number
257.9 projected points, built from 262 carries and 42 catches (Data/players.csv, FFToday snapshot dated 2026-07-30). It is a current 10-team model input, not an observation or a confirmed workload. Keep it provisional until the workload gate is resolved.
The risk
The current board marks him medium risk because the touch split is unresolved. Carries score less than catches in full PPR, so an unverified third-down role is not a minor detail. The historical record adds context rather than a resolution: he played all seventeen 2025 games yet was under half of his offense's snaps, so the forecast requires a role he has not recently demonstrated.
The context
Historical observed context from Data/player_context.csv (nflverse, OverTheCap; retrieved 2026-07-25), retained to describe his prior usage rather than a current role.
He is 25.9 on the September 9 opener and went 41st overall in 2022, to Seattle not Kansas City — second-round capital, real but not commanding (Draft capital dominance). He has played 15, 11 and 17 games, 43 of a possible 51: one week listed Out, eleven listed Questionable or Doubtful naming oblique, shoulder and ankle, and seven of the eight games missed falling outside the report, so not medical. In 2025, though, he was on the field for only 49.4 percent of his offense's snaps — a snap is one play (Fantasy football glossary) — taking 221 carries and 31 catches on 7.9 percent of the targets. That is a committee workload, not the every-down one the projection assumes. He is paid, 14.35 million a year, free agent in 2029.
Open questions
- At 20/21, take him only if the room pushes past the 20–25 RB/WR cluster and the available alternatives do not have a cleaner verified role. If he is gone at 26, do not reach at 20/21; use the remaining RB/WR value and reassess at 40/41.
- Bye week 5 is early and quiet, which is mildly good — but only Bye-week planning can say whether it collides with your other starters.