The role
He is a big slot: lined up inside, taking shorter throws more often, which in full PPR is a real job because every reception pays a full point before a yard. The complication is who he shares an offense with. Cincinnati already has an alpha X — the team's clear first option, thrown to regardless of matchup — who comes off the board inside the first handful of picks in the whole draft, and an alpha absorbs targets (throws in a player's direction) that would otherwise be available. Higgins is the second receiver in a two-receiver offense.
The number
The July players.csv estimate of 203.6 projected points is historical input, not a live turn instruction. The gated August-2 candidate file retains it and lists 10-team proxy ADP 38.2, so the old 24/25 comparison is no longer live.
The risk
The CSV flags him med risk. The driver is the teammate above: his projection assumes a target share left over after the alpha is fed, and that share is set by a coaching decision that will not be visible until the August 30 roster cutdown. The larger risk is whether he is on the field at all: he has played 39 of a possible 51 games since 2023, so a projection built on 17 games is assuming a season he has not had in three years (Availability and injury risk).
The context
He is 27 on the September 9 opener, taken 33rd overall by Cincinnati in 2020 — top of the second round, strong capital but not first-round (Draft capital dominance). Availability is what the section above underrates. He has played 12, 12 and 15 games, 39 of a possible 51, fewest of any receiver here. The report listed him Out five weeks and Questionable or Doubtful eleven more — hamstring six times, quadricep three, concussion three — and seven further missed games never appeared on it, so those were not medical. In 2025 he took 80.9 percent of Cincinnati's plays, 98 targets and 59 catches, a 16.1 percent target share. The projected 65 catches is roughly what 15 games already produced; the assumption doing the work is 17. He is paid $28.75 million a year, a free agent in 2029.
Open questions
August 2 candidate snapshot
The gated 10-team candidate file retains 203.6 projected points (65 catches, 906 yards) and lists Fantasy Football Calculator 10-team PPR proxy ADP 38.2. That market price no longer describes the old 24/25 decision; the projection and the Chase-adjacent target share remain uncertain.
- Whether the market's price is stale rather than wrong — ADP that matches better players usually means the room knows something the July projection does not, or the room is anchored to a name. ADP as a market price is the note for that argument, and it does not resolve here.
- Bye week 6, the second-worst bye week of 2026, which is a real cost for a player you would only be starting in your flex.