Current 10-team snapshot
The promoted Data/players.csv row lists NO WR, bye 8, ADP 21.7 (ffcalc-ppr-10tm-2026-08-02), 247.0 projected points over 17 games, alpha WR, and low model risk (94 catches, 1,110 yards projected). The canonical ledger accepts him as an active alpha WR in the Shough-led offense, available with high role and health confidence. It does not authorize a numerical target-share increase.
The role
He is the alpha X: the receiver a team throws to regardless of matchup, lined up wide and drawing the opponent's best defender. Targets — throws in his direction, counted whether or not he catches them (Fantasy football glossary) — are the most stable input in fantasy football, more stable than efficiency, which makes alphas the safest picks on the board that are not running backs. New Orleans has no other receiver in the file projected within thirty catches of him.
The number
94 catches projected (promoted 2026-08-02 row: alpha X; 94 catches for 1110 yards projected). In full PPR that is 94 points before a single yard is counted, roughly five and a half a game from receptions alone. It is a model projection, not an observed total.
The risk
The promoted model flags him low risk and gives an ADP of 21.7 from Fantasy Football Calculator PPR 10-team, a labelled proxy for ESPN's own ADP. The ledger supports his active alpha role but does not turn that into a target-share increase. The projection still assumes seventeen games, while historical availability remains a separate modelled concern (Availability and injury risk).
The context
Observed, from Data/player_context.csv (nflverse, OverTheCap; retrieved 2026-07-25).
He is 26.2 on the September 9 opener and went eleventh overall in 2022 to New Orleans out of Ohio State — first-round capital, which usually comes with the job (Draft capital dominance). Availability is the real mark against him: 16 games, then 8, then 16, so 40 of a possible 51. The report listed him Out for four weeks and Questionable or Doubtful for nine, naming concussion, head and back; the other seven games missed fall outside it and are not injury absences. In 2025 he played 84.3 percent of the snaps — a snap is one play (Fantasy football glossary) — catching 100 of 156 targets, 27.6 percent of the team's throws. The 94-catch projection is below what he did. He is on his rookie contract, free agent in 2027.
Open questions
- The alpha label rests on him having no comparable teammate in the file, which is an inference from the CSV's coverage, not a depth-chart reading. See Reading an NFL depth chart.
- His bye is week 8; check it against the live roster at the relevant 10-team turn.