Snapshot
- As of: 2026-07-18. This is an offseason projection, not an official depth chart.
- 2025-26 result: 22-60, 15th in the West. Utah played at the league's third-fastest pace (102.3), scored 117.6 points per game, and allowed a league-worst 126.0; Basketball-Reference estimates a 114.1 offensive rating, 122.3 defensive rating, and minus-8.2 net rating. Basketball-Reference team page, accessed 2026-07-18
- Coach: Will Hardy is under a multiyear extension. NBA/AP, 2025-05-05
- Availability is the headline fantasy variable. Markkanen has declined in games played four straight years (66 / 55 / 47 / 42) and last played February 23, 2026 with a right hip impingement; George has declined three straight (75 / 67 / 54) and lost his season to a Grade 2 hamstring strain on March 12; Jackson has played three games for Utah, all before season-ending knee surgery. Three of the four highest-projected players carry an unresolved games-played discount. See Health and transaction watch.
- Base case: 35-47, 11th or 12th in the West and on the edge of the Play-In race.
- Outcome range: 29-53 if the defense remains bottom five or the veteran frontcourt misses time; 41-41 if Darryn Peterson is immediately efficient, Jaren Jackson Jr. is fully healthy, and the team converts its pace into a league-average defense. A July 17 community transcription listed FanDuel at 34.5 wins, while a July 18 Utah discussion reported 35.5; both are secondary evidence because a stable public sportsbook page was not recoverable. FanDuel transcription, 2026-07-17 · Utah discussion, 2026-07-18
Verified contract roster
The contract boundary combines Utah's live roster with the NBA's player-movement dataset through July 18. The transaction feed records Peterson's rookie-scale contract; two-way deals for Tamar Bates and Trey Alexander; and standard deals for Josh Okogie, Jaxson Hayes, Jusuf Nurkić, and Mo Bamba. Blake Hinson's February two-way remains the third two-way slot. Jazz roster, accessed 2026-07-18 · NBA player-movement dataset, updated through 2026-07-16
Standard contracts (15): Keyonte George, Darryn Peterson, Ace Bailey, Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., Jusuf Nurkić, Isaiah Collier, Kyle Filipowski, Brice Sensabaugh, Josh Okogie, Svi Mykhailiuk, Cody Williams, John Konchar, Jaxson Hayes, Mo Bamba.
Two-way contracts (3): Blake Hinson, Tamar Bates, Trey Alexander.
Excluded names: Bez Mbeng and Oscar Tshiebwe still appear on ESPN's offseason roster surface, but Utah's official roster marks them as free agents. Elijah Harkless, Kevin Love, and Hayden Gray are also marked free agents. They are not projected as contracted Jazz players.
Projected depth chart
| Position | Starter | Second unit | Depth/development |
|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Keyonte George | Isaiah Collier | Trey Alexander (TW) |
| SG | Ace Bailey | Darryn Peterson / Josh Okogie | Svi Mykhailiuk, Tamar Bates (TW) |
| SF | Lauri Markkanen | Bailey / Brice Sensabaugh | Mykhailiuk, Cody Williams, John Konchar, Blake Hinson (TW) |
| PF | Jaren Jackson Jr. | Markkanen / Kyle Filipowski | Bailey |
| C | Jusuf Nurkić | Jackson / Filipowski / Jaxson Hayes | Mo Bamba |
Nurkic is the projected starting center after Walker Kessler's sign-and-trade; that call is reporting-backed, while the exact wing construction is an inference. Utah can instead use Jackson at center and add a wing, but that sacrifices rebounding and places the five highest-usage players together. RotoWire Jazz news, accessed 2026-07-18 · Axios roster overview, 2026-07-13
Correction 2026-07-18: the shooting-guard column previously listed Peterson as the projected opening-night starter and Bailey in the second unit. Published projections after the Hayes/Okogie/Bamba signings put Bailey in the starting lineup (George / Bailey / Markkanen / Jackson / Nurkić) with Peterson as the bench two-guard. The stated rationale is behavioural rather than talent-based: Hardy has not started a rookie on opening night at any point in this rebuild, and Peterson is described as likely to come off the bench initially before potentially taking the job later in the season. That is the single most decision-relevant fact for Peterson's ADP — his minutes are largely intact either way, but the starter label, and the usage that travels with it, is not. Yahoo's projection is the dissent, starting both guards; no published source places Bailey in the second unit. SI Jazz depth chart, post-signings · Yahoo lineup projection
Exact healthy-night minute allocation
This regulation-only role map sums to 240. It is not the same as season-long MPG: injuries, rest, foul trouble, development assignments, and opponent-specific center choices create minutes for players outside the healthy rotation.
| Player | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyonte George | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32 |
| Darryn Peterson | 0 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 |
| Lauri Markkanen | 0 | 0 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 32 |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 8 | 31 |
| Jusuf Nurkić | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 23 |
| Ace Bailey | 0 | 8 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 29 |
| Isaiah Collier | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| Kyle Filipowski | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| Brice Sensabaugh | 0 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
| Josh Okogie | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Svi Mykhailiuk | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jaxson Hayes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 |
| Position total | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 240 |
Williams, Konchar, Bamba, Hinson, Bates, and Alexander begin outside the fully healthy map. Bamba is not a fantasy zero: his path is simply an injury or a poor Nurkic/Hayes fit rather than a guaranteed three-center rotation.
Correction 2026-07-18: Sensabaugh was previously modelled at 9 healthy-night minutes, below Collier and barely above Okogie. That was not defensible against his 2025-26 record — 75 games at 23.5 minutes, 14.9 points and 2.2 threes on .460/.826, the third-highest scoring average on the roster, and the listed backup small forward on the post-signing depth chart. He is raised to 17 (11 SF, 6 SG), which also reconciles the grid with the 18.0 MPG already carried in the projection table. The eight minutes came from Okogie (7 to 3) and Mykhailiuk (6 to 2), the two players the grid had been over-serving relative to their production; the position columns and the 240 total are unchanged. Sensabaugh is extension-eligible in a contract year, which cuts toward usage rather than away from it. StatMuse 2025-26 line
2026-27 fantasy projections
Percentages are volume-weighted per-game projections. Rankings are broad draft bands. “Points value” is deliberately platform-agnostic because scoring systems vary.
| Player | GP | MPG | FG% | FT% | 3PM | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | 9-cat band | Points value | Dynasty band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauri Markkanen | 65 | 32.0 | .480 | .890 | 2.8 | 23.5 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 25-45 | top 35-55 | 45-70 |
| Keyonte George | 68 | 32.0 | .450 | .880 | 2.4 | 20.5 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 35-65 | top 35-55 | 35-60 |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | 63 | 31.0 | .475 | .800 | 1.8 | 19.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 35-65 | top 45-70 | 35-60 |
| Darryn Peterson | 72 | 29.0 | .445 | .830 | 1.8 | 16.5 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 75-115 | top 70-100 | 15-30 |
| Ace Bailey | 74 | 29.0 | .450 | .770 | 2.1 | 16.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 80-125 | top 80-115 | 45-105 |
| Jusuf Nurkić | 58 | 23.0 | .505 | .620 | 0.5 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 90-145 | top 100-145 | 180-260 |
| Isaiah Collier | 70 | 18.0 | .495 | .730 | 0.4 | 8.5 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 150-220 | top 130-180 | 130-210 |
| Kyle Filipowski | 72 | 16.0 | .490 | .750 | 0.8 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 140-200 | top 150-205 | 145-220 |
| Brice Sensabaugh | 68 | 18.0 | .455 | .820 | 1.7 | 10.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 160-225 | top 150-210 | 180-260 |
| Jaxson Hayes | 60 | 12.0 | .720 | .650 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 190-250 | top 190-250 | 240-350 |
| Josh Okogie | 65 | 11.0 | .420 | .700 | 0.4 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 230+ | defensive streamer | 300+ |
| Svi Mykhailiuk | 60 | 10.0 | .455 | .850 | 0.9 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 230+ | threes streamer | 300+ |
| Mo Bamba | 35 | 8.0 | .460 | .650 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 230+ | blocks handcuff | 280-400 |
| Cody Williams | 50 | 8.0 | .440 | .700 | 0.2 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 260+ | deep-league only | 180-300 |
| John Konchar | 35 | 7.0 | .440 | .750 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 280+ | emergency streamer | 350+ |
| Blake Hinson | 25 | 8.0 | .440 | .750 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 280+ | two-way shooting | 280-400 |
| Trey Alexander | 20 | 7.0 | .430 | .700 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 300+ | two-way depth | 300-450 |
| Tamar Bates | 12 | 6.0 | .430 | .750 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 350+ | development only | 320-500 |
The returning baseline matters. In 2025-26 Markkanen averaged 26.7/6.9/2.1 in 34.4 minutes, George 23.6/3.7/6.1, Sensabaugh 14.9/3.1/1.9 with 2.2 threes in 23.5 minutes across 75 games, Bailey 13.8/4.2/1.8, Collier 11.7 points and 7.2 assists, Filipowski 11.4 points and 7.2 rebounds, and Nurkic 10.9/10.4/4.8. ESPN Utah stats, accessed 2026-07-18
Fantasy hierarchy and market signals
- Markkanen, George, and Jackson form the redraft tier. ESPN's April points list ranked George 42nd, Markkanen 44th, and Jackson 57th; it predates Peterson's selection and Kessler's departure. ESPN early points rankings, 2026-04-14
- Market disagreement is widest on George. Dynatyze ranks Jackson 37th, Markkanen 46th, and George 52nd in its July 3 redraft board. George is an efficiency-and-role bet: better teammates may improve his shots, but Peterson reduces his monopoly on creation. Dynatyze rankings, updated 2026-07-03
- Peterson is a stronger dynasty than redraft asset. Hashtag's analyst list ranks him 18th in dynasty; its July 18 crowd market ranks him 44th; RotoWire ranks him 70th. The gap encodes uncertainty about his first-year usage rather than talent. Hashtag analyst dynasty rankings, accessed 2026-07-18 · Hashtag crowd keeper rankings, updated 2026-07-18 · RotoWire dynasty breakdown, 2026-06-29
- Bailey is the other major disagreement. Hashtag's analyst list ranks him 103rd, while the crowd ranks him 45th. Draft the role you believe: a 29-minute starter and closer can return middle-round value, but a 24-minute development platoon cannot.
- Nurkic is a category specialist with a dangerous free-throw profile. His 10.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.3 steals in 2025-26 are real; so is the 54.9% free-throw mark. He fits punt-FT builds far better than balanced teams.
Role battles
- Fifth starter: Nurkic has the conventional-center edge; a Jackson-at-centre small group is the high-upside alternative. George, Bailey, Markkanen, and Jackson are the likely constants, with Peterson the highest-usage reserve and the most likely in-season promotion.
- Creation hierarchy: George begins as lead guard, but Peterson needs on-ball development and Collier averaged 7.2 assists. A three-way split is the central fantasy risk.
- Backup center: Hayes supplies vertical athleticism, Filipowski spacing and passing, and Bamba theoretical rim protection. Jackson will also absorb center minutes. No reserve has a safe nightly workload.
- Reserve wings: Sensabaugh is the best scorer, Okogie the best perimeter defender, Mykhailiuk the best movement shooter, Williams the development bet, and Konchar the low-mistake connector. The healthy map cannot accommodate all five.
Health and transaction watch
- Lauri Markkanen: last played February 23, 2026. An MRI on an injury sustained in practice found symptomatic right hip impingement with inflammation and a bone bruise; the initial timeline was at least two weeks and he missed the remainder of the season, finishing at 42 games. That is a fourth consecutive decline in games played — 66, 55, 47, 42 — and the largest single availability risk on the roster. The current clearance evidence is international: 29 minutes and 23 points for Finland against Hungary on July 3, 2026 and 26 minutes against France on July 6. Full-speed FIBA minutes are the strongest functional signal available in July, but they are not a Jazz medical bulletin, and the 65-game projection should be read as leaning on them. ESPN, hip injury report
- Keyonte George: suffered a Grade 2 right hamstring strain against New York on March 12, 2026, contesting a layup in the third quarter. It ended his season and cost the final 15-16 games, and it followed separate ankle sprains in late January and early February that had already cost most of a month. He finished at 54 games, against 75 and 67 in the two prior seasons — a straight three-year decline that the 68-game projection sits above. No full-clearance bulletin has been published as of July 18. KSL, hamstring report
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: the February surgery to remove a localized PVNS growth from his left knee was season-ending, and the growth was found on an MRI during his post-trade physical. He played three games for Utah after the February 3 trade and has not appeared in an NBA game since; his last extended basketball was in a Memphis uniform. Utah has therefore essentially never seen him play, which is the actual basis for discounting the 31-MPG and 63-game projections — the surgery report carried an expectation of full health for fall training camp, but there is no Jazz sample to test it against and no public July restriction either way. NBA/AP, 2026-02-17 · ESPN, season-ending surgery
- Jusuf Nurkić: nasal surgery ended his season after 41 games; his July re-signing indicates Utah expects him back, but it does not guarantee a 25-plus-minute workload. NBA/AP, 2026-02-24 · NBA signing report, 2026-07-09
- Darryn Peterson: his lone Kansas season included hamstring and ankle absences. He then scored 28 in his Salt Lake City summer debut and was rested for at least one Vegas game. NBA draft profile, accessed 2026-07-18 · NBA summer-league recap, 2026-07-05
- Walker Kessler departure: Kessler left via sign-and-trade; Utah replaced him with Nurkic, Hayes, and Bamba, not a comparable fantasy rim protector. NBA offseason tracker, updated 2026-07-16
Ceiling and floor map
| Player | Ceiling trigger | Floor trigger |
|---|---|---|
| Markkanen | 33 MPG, 70 games, and no shutdown incentive: top 20-25 | another sub-55-game season: poor totals value |
| George | efficiency holds while assists stay above six: top 30-40 | Peterson absorbs creation and turnovers remain high: outside top 80 |
| Jackson | knee is clear and blocks rebound above 1.8: top 25-35 | center physicality plus managed workload: outside top 80 |
| Peterson | promoted to starter early and used as a secondary lead guard: top 60-75 | 24-minute bench scorer without assists: outside top 130 |
| Bailey | holds the starting two-guard job and reaches 31 MPG: top 65-85 | loses it back to Peterson, with poor FT and low assists: outside top 140 |
| Nurkic | 26 MPG with 10/10/5 rates: top 80 in punt-FT | 18-minute committee role or recurrent injury: waiver player |
| Collier | injury-created lead-guard role: assists streamer with points upside | healthy George/Peterson backcourt: specialist only |
| Filipowski | wins primary backup-five role: top 130-160 | three-center committee: deep-league only |
Sources
- Official Jazz roster — accessed 2026-07-18.
- Official NBA player-movement dataset — accessed 2026-07-18.
- NBA 2026 Utah draft profile — accessed 2026-07-18.
- NBA 2026 offseason deals — updated 2026-07-16.
- ESPN Utah statistics — accessed 2026-07-18.
- Hashtag Basketball dynasty rankings — accessed 2026-07-18.
- Hashtag Basketball crowd keeper rankings — updated 2026-07-18.
- 2026 fantasy draft winners and losers — 2026-06-25.
- Reddit Utah guard discussion — 2026-07-02; sentiment only.
- Reddit post-draft dynasty fit discussion — 2026-06-30; sentiment only.
Open questions
- Does Hardy start Nurkic, or close the rebounding gap another way while Jackson plays center?
- Can George preserve six assists and elite free-throw volume once Peterson receives lead-guard reps?
- Is Jackson fully cleared for camp after the left-knee PVNS procedure?
- Which two of Sensabaugh, Okogie, Mykhailiuk, Williams, and Konchar actually make the nightly wing rotation?
- Does Utah chase the Play-In all season, or pivot toward development if it falls behind by February?