Up: 2026-27 Fantasy Basketball Encyclopedia
Related: NBA team season projection model · 2026-27 NBA minutes projections · Availability risk in NBA projections
Snapshot
The table is generated from Andrew's local projection_2026_27_teams.json, modified 2026-07-17 17:15 EDT. It is an independent quantitative prior, not a market line or a fantasy rank. P10–P90 is the model's season-win band and playoff probability is the model output for this roster snapshot.
| Rk | Team | Wins | P10–P90 | Playoff | Strength | Rating SE | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 64.6 | 59–70 | 100.0% | 7.57 | 1.35 | many_rookies, many_replacement_rows |
| 2 | Boston Celtics | 60.1 | 54–66 | 100.0% | 4.93 | 1.30 | — |
| 3 | Houston Rockets | 55.1 | 47–62 | 99.4% | 2.49 | 2.09 | many_rookies, many_replacement_rows, high_rating_uncertainty |
| 4 | New York Knicks | 54.7 | 48–61 | 99.5% | 2.32 | 1.36 | — |
| 5 | San Antonio Spurs | 53.8 | 47–60 | 99.6% | 2.14 | 1.32 | many_rookies |
| 6 | Toronto Raptors | 52.5 | 45–60 | 97.8% | 1.58 | 1.67 | many_rookies |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | 49.8 | 42–57 | 96.0% | 0.17 | 1.79 | many_rookies |
| 8 | Orlando Magic | 46.7 | 40–53 | 87.0% | -1.23 | 1.28 | — |
| 9 | Golden State Warriors | 46.1 | 39–53 | 87.8% | -1.45 | 1.68 | — |
| 10 | Miami Heat | 46.1 | 39–53 | 81.5% | -1.67 | 1.64 | many_rookies, many_replacement_rows |
| 11 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 45.9 | 39–53 | 81.9% | -1.63 | 1.41 | — |
| 12 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 44.3 | 38–51 | 83.0% | -2.23 | 1.34 | many_rookies |
| 13 | Charlotte Hornets | 44.0 | 37–51 | 71.6% | -2.34 | 1.49 | many_rookies, many_replacement_rows |
| 14 | Detroit Pistons | 43.8 | 37–51 | 70.0% | -2.68 | 1.48 | — |
| 15 | Atlanta Hawks | 43.7 | 37–51 | 70.4% | -2.30 | 1.51 | many_rookies |
| 16 | Los Angeles Lakers | 41.5 | 34–48 | 66.3% | -3.42 | 1.54 | many_rookies, many_replacement_rows |
| 17 | Portland Trail Blazers | 41.5 | 35–48 | 67.1% | -3.34 | 1.27 | — |
| 18 | Phoenix Suns | 39.6 | 33–46 | 52.2% | -4.35 | 1.24 | — |
| 19 | Philadelphia 76ers | 36.6 | 30–43 | 21.0% | -5.32 | 1.27 | — |
| 20 | Indiana Pacers | 35.3 | 29–42 | 14.4% | -6.04 | 1.21 | — |
| 21 | Dallas Mavericks | 34.4 | 27–41 | 19.6% | -6.36 | 1.56 | many_rookies, many_replacement_rows |
| 22 | Los Angeles Clippers | 32.0 | 25–40 | 11.6% | -7.60 | 1.86 | many_rookies |
| 23 | Memphis Grizzlies | 32.0 | 25–39 | 10.3% | -7.63 | 1.66 | many_rookies, many_replacement_rows |
| 24 | Milwaukee Bucks | 29.6 | 23–36 | 2.4% | -8.55 | 1.53 | many_rookies, many_replacement_rows |
| 25 | Sacramento Kings | 28.8 | 22–36 | 4.2% | -8.95 | 1.84 | many_rookies |
| 26 | New Orleans Pelicans | 28.7 | 22–35 | 2.3% | -9.15 | 1.25 | — |
| 27 | Chicago Bulls | 27.8 | 20–35 | 2.0% | -9.42 | 1.96 | many_rookies, many_replacement_rows |
| 28 | Washington Wizards | 24.6 | 18–31 | 0.3% | -10.80 | 1.70 | — |
| 29 | Brooklyn Nets | 24.5 | 18–31 | 0.4% | -10.91 | 1.76 | many_rookies |
| 30 | Utah Jazz | 22.0 | 15–30 | 0.5% | -12.27 | 2.40 | high_rating_uncertainty |
Fantasy interpretation
- High team strength can stabilize closing roles and reduce late-season shutdown incentives, but it can also create blowout and workload-management risk.
- Wide win bands or rating standard errors flag roster, rookie, health, or minute uncertainty that should propagate into player projections.
- A poor team does not imply poor fantasy value. Concentrated creation and permissive minutes can make weak real teams productive fantasy environments.
- Team dossiers may challenge this quantitative prior with newer transactions or mechanism-specific evidence; disagreements stay visible rather than being silently averaged.
Provenance
- Team JSON SHA-256:
c5bf845b29b81815e28d7ee0beb89b206befd2df02f6f0fdb2e4a7e763e64f80. - Machine-readable export: andrew-rapm-team-outcomes-2026-07-17.csv.
- The model metadata identifies an availability-adjusted forward projection with an aging-aware player model, a synthetic season schedule, and rotation and game-level uncertainty.
Open questions
- Which post-July 17 transactions or medical updates require a roster refresh before this prior is used in draft decisions?
- How well do projected wins identify late-season rest and shutdown incentives after controlling for actual standings uncertainty?
- Which team-level pace and offensive-environment projections should accompany the win distribution for fantasy use?