New Orleans Pelicans

Research cut Evidence and roster statuses are current through 2026-07-18 (America/New_York). All 2026-27 statistics and rank bands below are this desk's independent preseason projection, not team promises. Social and community sources are retained as sentiment or discovery leads, not treated as authoritative transactions.

Executive fantasy read

• Safest category asset: Trey Murphy III. He finished 2025-26 at 21.5 points, 3.2 threes and 1.5 steals with .470/.886 percentages, and Basketball Monster's final per-game board reportedly placed him ninth. The main swing factor is a trade: New Orleans was still fielding calls in July while signaling that it wanted an overwhelming return. NBA team statistics, accessed 2026-07-18 · Yahoo, 2026-07-08
• Best points-league ceiling: Zion Williamson. His .600 field-goal rate and 21.0 points remain format-changing, but free throws, no three-point volume and soft-tissue history widen the gap between points and nine-category value. NBA High Score finished him 45th after ranking him 13th in the preseason. NBA fantasy review, 2026-03-17
• Best structural sleeper: Dejounte Murray, if the post-Achilles workload normalizes. He returned for only 14 games but still averaged 6.4 assists and 1.6 steals in 27.8 minutes. NBA/AP return feature, 2026-02-24
• Best dynasty bets: Derik Queen and Jeremiah Fears. Both made the 2025-26 All-Rookie Second Team; Queen's center assists and Fears's late scoring explosion create genuine ceiling, while a healthy veteran roster keeps their redraft minutes from being automatic. NBA, 2026-05-21
• Deep-league center sleeper: Karlo Matković. His final 32 games produced 9.8 points, 5.9 rebounds and 1.1 blocks in 22.3 minutes, and New Orleans exercised his 2026-27 option. The Missi–Queen competition still makes this a role bet, not a safe standard-league selection. RotoBaller, 2026-06-25 · NBA option tracker, updated 2026-07-02
• Largest fades at current name value: Jordan Poole, who shot .372 and was pulled from the rotation entirely late in 2025-26 while New Orleans shopped his salary; and any projection that assigns starter minutes simultaneously to Murray, Fears and Poole. Team-wide, Mosley's three-point suppression (below) is a fade on every shooter's 3PM line, Murphy and Bey most of all.

Correction 2026-07-18 Earlier versions of this desk listed Yves Missi as a fade "if managers assume 2024-25 starter volume" while modelling him at 10-16 minutes. That was inconsistent with naming him the projected defensive starter: he averaged 19.7 MPG over 66 games in 2025-26 as a reserve, and Kevon Looney's 309 minutes are now vacated to the Lakers. Missi's healthy-night allocation is raised to 20 (24 in the defense-first alternate) and his board line to 21 MPG. Source: StatMuse 2025-26 Pelicans minutes.

Roster reconciliation

The official roster page, league transaction ledgers and free-agent lists do not agree perfectly in mid-July. This desk gives completed NBA transactions priority over stale player tiles. Official roster, accessed 2026-07-18 · NBA offseason deals, updated 2026-07-18 · RealGM transaction history, accessed 2026-07-18

Projected functional depth chart

This is a forecast, not a published team lineup. Jamahl Mosley's defense-first history raises the odds that Jones and Missi open games even when Fears and Queen close more often. Yahoo depth-chart analysis, 2026-07-15 · NBA/AP Mosley introduction, 2026-05

*Missi is the nominal defensive starter in this forecast; Queen projects for the most total center-plus-power-forward minutes and is the likeliest closer. Matković has a credible path to 16–21 active-game minutes and cannot be modeled as a token third center.

What Mosley's record actually says

The desk previously reduced the coaching change to the phrase "defense-first history." The citable version is more specific and moves projections more. Across five Orlando seasons Mosley's offenses ranked 30th, 26th, 22nd, 26th and 18th in offensive efficiency — never better than 18th. His teams ranked 25th or worse in three-point attempt frequency in all five seasons and bottom-ten in three-point accuracy in four of them. On the other side they were a top-five defensive rebounding team in each of the last three seasons and never below seventh in any Mosley year, and top-five in the share of opponent shots forced into three-pointers in two straight. Sports Illustrated, 2026-05

Applied to this roster, that is three separate adjustments:

• Three-point volume fade. Murphy, Bey, Poole, Hawkins and Murray all carry 3PM lines that assume roughly 2025-26 attempt rates. A coach whose teams finished 25th-or-worse in 3PA frequency five years running does not import that rate. The board below shaves roughly 5% off each shooter's per-minute three-point volume relative to straight pro-rata.
• Defensive-rebound and steal bump. Queen, Missi, Matković and Jones are the beneficiaries. Queen's rebound line and Jones's 1.7 steals are held up rather than regressed despite lower minutes.
• Pace is genuinely uncertain, not automatically down. New Orleans played 100.34 possessions per game in 2025-26. Orlando under Mosley was structurally half-court, but the same SI piece quotes him wanting to force turnovers and push in transition. This desk assumes pace roughly flat (99–101) rather than a Magic-style collapse, and flags it as the single largest unhedged multiplier under every counting stat on the board.

Exact 240-minute models

Base healthy-night hierarchy

The positional allocation below reconciles exactly to the 240 regulation minutes. It is a healthy-night role map. The projection board's GP and MPG are active-game/availability estimates derived from it — the bridge is stated explicitly under the board so the two systems can no longer disagree.

Correction 2026-07-18 Two changes to this model, both role judgments rather than arithmetic fixes. (1) Jordan Poole is removed from the healthy ten (previously 16 minutes). New Orleans pulled him from the rotation outright in the second half of 2025-26 while trying to move his salary, he shot .372, and his $34.04M deal now expires after 2026-27, which makes him salary-matching filler on a team whose stated backcourt plan is Murray and Fears. Spotrac/HoopsHype 2026-27 salary (2) Yves Missi rises from 10 to 20 for the reason given in the executive read. His 14 freed minutes plus Poole's 16 were redistributed as: Missi +10, Fears +2, Hawkins +8, Matković 0 (held), Jones −4 and Murphy's 34 held constant by moving 6 of his minutes to shooting guard. Queen stays at 27 and Bey at 25.

Bryce McGowens, Micah Peavy, Jordan Poole and DeAndre Jordan begin outside the healthy ten-man allocation but absorb injury, rest and transaction-created minutes over the season. The tenth slot (Hawkins 8) is the genuinely contested one; McGowens and Poole are the alternative claimants and a Poole trade or a veteran-center signing would re-open it.

Defense-first / traditional-center alternate

If Mosley prioritizes rim protection to the degree his Orlando record suggests, keep every backcourt, wing and power-forward allocation unchanged and re-split centre to Missi 24 / Queen 14 / Matković 10. That produces Murray 30 + Fears 28 + Jones 24 + Hawkins 8 + Murphy 34 + Bey 25 + Williamson 30 + Queen 27 + Missi 24 + Matković 10 = 240.

The important fantasy read is not whether Missi starts; it is whether he clears 20 minutes and whether Matković's shooting and blocks force a genuine three-man rotation instead of a two-man one. Queen remains at 27 total minutes in both models; Matković is the player the defense-first case actually costs.

2026-27 projection board

Per-game desk model. GP and MPG estimate availability and minutes when active. Percentages are decimal rates. Bands are rough overall values for 12-team leagues; scoring settings and punts can move a player several rounds.

Season-minutes check. GP × MPG across the board sums to 19,264 player-minutes. An 82-game season supplies 240 × 82 = 19,680, so 416 minutes (2.1%) remain unassigned — the intended reserve for the open standard roster spot, the two open two-way slots and any ten-day signings. Earlier versions of this board summed to 18,072 and left 1,608 minutes (8.2%, roughly a full 20-MPG rotation player) assigned to nobody, which meant every counting stat on it was systematically low.

Bridge from the healthy-night model to board MPG. Board MPG = healthy-night allocation, minus roughly 5-10% for blowouts, foul trouble and scheduled rest, plus injury-absorption for players outside the healthy ten. That is why Murphy models at 34 healthy and 33 on the board, Missi at 20 and 21 (he absorbs Matković and Queen absences), and Poole at 0 healthy but 14 on the board, being a pure absorption case. Every board line now traces to an allocation. There is no longer any player, as there was with Missi at 10-versus-16 and Matković at 14-versus-17, whose two numbers cannot both be true.

Usage vacuum, quantified — and it is small. Departures total roughly 1,300 minutes and about 400 points: Alvarado 898 minutes, Looney 309, Alexander and Oduro trace amounts. That is the strongest available argument against every breakout bet on this board. Absent a Murphy or Poole trade, no Pelican inherits a real usage spike; the minutes being redistributed are backup-guard and backup-center minutes, not shot-creation minutes.

The 2025-26 baselines used to anchor the model are the official team-filtered NBA table. NBA statistics, accessed 2026-07-18 Matković's active-game estimate was raised from the initial desk model after reconciling his strong final 32 games, exercised option and Looney's departure.

Correction 2026-07-18 Board revised for three reasons. (1) The previous board's GP × MPG left 1,608 season-minutes unallocated; the rebalance above closes the gap to 416, with the recovered minutes going mostly to Missi, Fears, Queen, Bey and the reserve guards. (2) Missi rises 16 → 21 MPG and his nine-cat band improves from 160-210 to 130-175, for the reason given in the executive read. (3) Poole falls from 60 GP × 16 MPG to 55 × 14 after confirming he was removed from the rotation outright late in 2025-26 while New Orleans tried to move his salary, and Bey rises 25 → 27 MPG after HoopsHype's Michael Scotto reported that New Orleans and Bey are mutually interested in a veteran extension starting near $21M. Three-point lines for Murphy, Murray, Jones and Poole carry a roughly 5% fade against straight pro-rata, on Mosley's Orlando three-point-attempt history. Sources: Hoops Rumors, 2026-06 · Sports Illustrated on Mosley.

Format map

Nine-category redraft

Murphy is the clear early-round target, with the caveat that his 3PM line is the one most exposed to Mosley's attempt-rate suppression. Murray belongs in the middle rounds if camp shows no workload cap. Queen is a calculated mid-round upside pick; Williamson's free throws and durability make him build-dependent. Jones is a steals specialist. Bey and Fears are mid-to-late plays, Missi is now a genuine late-round blocks-and-boards target rather than a watchlist name, and Matković is a role bet. Poole's name recognition is likely to outrun his role by a wide margin.

Points leagues

Williamson closes most of the gap on Murphy, and Queen/Fears become easier to draft because inefficient shooting and turnovers are less punitive. Murray's assists create a stable floor. Jones loses relative value unless defensive events score heavily. Missi and Matković need center minutes or block bonuses.

Dynasty

• Core: Murphy, Queen and Fears.
• High-variance hold: Williamson; age and production still support value, but durability prevents insulation.
• Veteran bridge: Murray.
• Upside specialists: Missi, Matković and Jones.
• Value-decay risk: Poole, Hawkins and DeAndre Jordan because the roster does not promise them expansion minutes.

Correction 2026-07-18 Bey was previously grouped here as a value-decay risk. He is moved out. He became extension-eligible on 2026-07-11 and Michael Scotto reported mutual interest in a veteran extension starting near 140% of the estimated average salary — around $21M in year one, framed as roughly four years and $93M with a $65-75M compromise floated. A front office committing that money after he started 64 of 72 games at 31.2 MPG for 17.7 points on .451/.367/.841 is not planning a demotion, which is why his board minutes rise to 27 rather than fall. The honest counter-case remains that a fully healthy Murphy/Zion/Queen frontcourt reclaims the minutes that produced those counting stats; that is a minutes argument, not a decay argument. Hoops Rumors, 2026-06 - Deep rookie stash: Pierre only after his contract bucket is confirmed.

External ranking and sentiment ledger

Early 2026-27 public boards were still sparse at the research cut, so these are dated market markers rather than consensus ADP.

Role and injury fault lines

• Murray: returned February 24 after 13 months rehabbing a right Achilles rupture and then dealt with late hand/finger trouble. A normal training camp is the biggest individual role checkpoint. NBA/AP, 2026-02-24
• Williamson: 2025-26 included a foot contusion, left-hamstring absence, Grade 2 right-hip adductor strain and late knee management. Sixty-two games was progress, not proof that the durability problem has disappeared. NBA, 2025-12-02
• Murphy: missed time with a right-shoulder issue and right-ankle sprain before late-season rest/shutdown treatment. Spotrac injury log, accessed 2026-07-18
• Missi: the organization reportedly refused to include him in New York's inquiries in early July, which is a meaningful signal about how it values the center it is now projected to start. Yahoo, 2026-07-02 On health, he returned from a calf strain in February, then suffered a right-hand sprain in April. FantasyPros, 2026-02-28 · CBS/RotoWire, 2026-04-07
• Matković: calf/hamstring history and season-ending lower-back spasms require a camp clearance check. Spotrac injury history, accessed 2026-07-18
• Fit: Zion–Queen lineups reportedly allowed 122.8 points per 100 possessions and graded in the 12th percentile. Mosley's defensive priorities can separate their minutes even when both are healthy. CBS Sports, 2026-05-18

Team outcome range

New Orleans finished 26-56 with a 115.5–120.0 average score, a minus-4.5 margin, the league's 21st offense and 25th defense. Basketball-Reference, season final

Desk center: 31-51, roughly 12th–13th in the West. The market was close: FanDuel posted 29.5 wins on July 17, CBS ranked New Orleans 24th on July 13 and a July 16 conference forecast placed the club 13th in the West. FOX 8/FanDuel, 2026-07-17 · CBS power rankings, 2026-07-13 · Sports Illustrated, 2026-07-16

Video, social and community shelf

Monitoring calendar

• Remainder of July: Pierre contract, the two open two-way slots, final standard roster spot, and any Murphy/Poole trade. Saddiq Bey's extension window opened 2026-07-11; a signed deal near the reported $21M-start figure would confirm the 27-minute projection, while a summer that closes without one would reopen the compression case.
• Type of the open standard spot: reporting is explicit that the hole is at center and that New Orleans watched free-agent centers sign elsewhere. A veteran center signing would compress Missi, Matković and Queen simultaneously — the single highest-leverage unresolved event on this desk, because it touches three separate sleeper calls at once.
• Training camp: Murray workload, Matković back clearance, Missi hand/calf status, Williamson conditioning, and whether Jones or Fears starts at shooting guard.
• Preseason: center start/close split, Fears on-ball reps with Murray, whether Poole is in the rotation at all, and whether Bey closes at small-ball four. Watch team three-point attempt rate in preseason as the earliest read on whether Mosley's Orlando shot profile travels.
• December 15 through deadline: Murphy and Poole trade signals; whether a losing record shifts minutes toward Fears, Queen, Missi and Matković. Note the tanking incentive is live in the median case, not only the floor: New Orleans already sent its 2026 unprotected first to Atlanta (it conveyed at No. 8) but controls its own 2027 pick, and the market has it at 29.5 wins. That is a real post-deadline shutdown risk for Zion, Murray and Murphy.

Source trail

• Official Pelicans roster — accessed 2026-07-18; useful but not sufficient for contract status because stale tiles remained.
• NBA 2026 offseason deals — transaction reconciliation.
• NBA 2026 option and qualifying-offer tracker — Matković option and free-agent buckets.
• NBA 2025-26 Pelicans player statistics — common statistical baseline.
• Basketball-Reference 2025-26 Pelicans page — team ratings and season outcome.

Open questions

• What contract, if any, will Jaron Pierre Jr. sign?
• Who receives the remaining two two-way contracts and final standard spot?
• Does Jones or Fears start next to Murray, and is Poole still on the roster at opening night?
• Which of Missi, Queen and Matković starts, closes and receives 18-plus center minutes?
• Is Murray cleared for an unrestricted camp after the Achilles and hand issues?
• Does New Orleans keep Murphy through the trade deadline?
• Does Bey sign the reported extension before the season, and at what number? A four-year deal starting near $21M and a 25-minute bench role are hard to hold simultaneously.
• Does New Orleans use the open standard spot on a veteran center, and if so, whose minutes pay for it?
• How far does Mosley's Orlando three-point profile actually travel? He has publicly said he wants to force turnovers and push pace, which is not the half-court identity his attempt-rate ranks describe.
• Is Herb Jones available? Bleacher Report grouped him with Murphy in pre-free-agency trade buzz, and he is this desk's projected starting shooting guard and designated steals specialist.
• How many back-to-backs does the schedule contain, and did Mosley rest healthy players in Orlando? The Zion 60-GP and Murray 64-GP estimates are unhedged against a stated rest policy.