Up: 2026-27 Fantasy Basketball Encyclopedia
Related: 2026-27 fantasy basketball projection methodology · 2026-27 fantasy basketball evidence and confidence policy
Information cutoff: 2026-07-18, America/New_York. This is an offseason projection, not an official opening-night depth chart.
Executive fantasy read
- Best category asset: Jayson Tatum, a late-first-round 9-cat anchor in the base case. His March return from Achilles repair restored minutes and counting stats, but his shooting and a May left-knee shutdown keep availability confidence below his rate confidence.
- Best price-sensitive breakout: Payton Pritchard. Boston's departure from the Brown-centric offense matters: Pritchard produced 26.7 points, 7.6 assists and 5.3 rebounds per 75 possessions in 861 minutes without Brown in 2025-26, according to Tom Haberstroh's cited lineup study. That is a role signal, not a literal 27-8-5 forecast.
- Best category specialist: Derrick White remains an unusually valuable guard-blocks source after making the 2025-26 All-Defensive First Team. A partial shooting rebound from 39.4% FG and 32.7% from three is built into the projection.
- Best late bigs: Neemias Queta for the safer workload; Mitchell Robinson for concentrated rebounds, FG% and blocks with major FT% and availability costs.
- Best dynasty swing: 20-year-old Hugo Gonzalez showed more on-ball creation in July Summer League, but Summer League role is deliberately given little NBA translation weight.
Roster ledger
The official transaction sequence supports 14 standard players after Boston waived Dalano Banton on July 9. Boston's transaction log lists the July 5 rookie-scale signing of Cenac, the July 6 George trade and Conley/Robinson/Queta/Harper transactions, and the July 1 two-way re-signing of Amari Williams. Statuses below were checked 2026-07-18.
| Player | Position band | 2026-27 state | Projection treatment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum | F | Standard; franchise lead | Starter, primary option |
| Derrick White | G | Standard | Starter, two-way connector |
| Payton Pritchard | G | Standard | Projected starter, secondary creator |
| Paul George | G/F | Standard; acquired from Philadelphia July 6 | Starter when active; maintenance risk |
| Neemias Queta | C | Standard; re-signed four years | Projected starting center |
| Mitchell Robinson | C | Standard; signed three years | Even center timeshare; punt-FT target |
| Hugo Gonzalez | G/F | Rookie-scale | Sixth/seventh-man development priority |
| Baylor Scheierman | G/F | Rookie-scale | Rotation shooter/connector |
| Sam Hauser | F | Standard | Movement-shooting specialist |
| Ron Harper Jr. | G/F | Standard; re-signed three years | Reserve point-of-attack wing |
| Jordan Walsh | F | Standard; option exercised, non-guaranteed | Defensive matchup reserve |
| Mike Conley | G | Standard; one-year deal | Third point guard and veteran organizer |
| Luka Garza | C | Standard | Third center; injury-path streamer |
| Chris Cenac Jr. | F/C | Rookie-scale, No. 27 pick | Developmental frontcourt depth |
| Amari Williams | C | Confirmed two-way | Maine lead big; contingent NBA minutes |
| Dillon Mitchell | F | No. 40 pick; draft rights, unsigned as of cutoff | Projected favorite for a two-way slot, not fact |
| Milos Uzan | G | Exhibit 10 signed July 14 | Competing for an open two-way slot |
| Tucker DeVries | F | Exhibit 10 signed July 14 | Camp/Maine shooting candidate |
Sources: NBA offseason transactions, updated July 16, CBS transaction ledger, Maine Celtics on Amari Williams' two-way, Yahoo on the July 14 Exhibit 10 signings, RealGM roster and contract cross-check.
Projected depth chart
| Slot | First | Second | Third / contingent |
|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Payton Pritchard | Derrick White | Mike Conley / Ron Harper Jr. / Milos Uzan |
| SG | Derrick White | Baylor Scheierman | Payton Pritchard / Ron Harper Jr. |
| SF | Paul George | Hugo Gonzalez | Sam Hauser / Dillon Mitchell |
| PF | Jayson Tatum | Hugo Gonzalez | Sam Hauser / Jordan Walsh / Chris Cenac Jr. |
| C | Neemias Queta | Mitchell Robinson | Luka Garza / Chris Cenac Jr. / Amari Williams |
Base starting five: Pritchard — White — George — Tatum — Queta. No official starter declaration existed at the cutoff. RealGM's provisional chart instead displayed White–Scheierman–Hauser–Tatum–Queta, while Boston Sports Journal and fan/community rotation work placed Pritchard and Queta in prominent roles. The model favors Pritchard because he started 50 games in 2025-26, Boston removed Brown's high-usage overlap, and the roster lacks another prime-age initiator. George's off nights most directly lift Gonzalez, Scheierman and Hauser.
Center order. No coaching declaration exists, so the strongest available signal is the contract: Boston gave Robinson three years and $47.4M immediately after a championship run in New York, which is not a price paid for a reserve. ESPN's provisional depth chart and Fadeaway World's rotation projection both start Robinson; the SI fantasy piece cited in the ledger leans Queta. Correction 2026-07-18: the split moves from 23-17 Queta to 21-20, effectively even, rather than the earlier tilt. Queta keeps a one-minute edge only because his 2025-26 workload (76 games, 75 starts, 25.3 MPG) is the more durable of the two — Robinson has never exceeded 72 games, played 17 in 2024-25 after ankle surgery, and carried a full postseason on top of 2025-26. Robinson should be treated as a genuine punt-FT target rather than a late-big afterthought.
240-minute competitive-game model
These are simultaneous base active-game minutes for a representative regulation game with the standard roster available. They sum to exactly 240; overtime and non-simultaneous injury-path minutes are excluded.
| Player | Base minutes |
|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum | 34 |
| Derrick White | 34 |
| Payton Pritchard | 32 |
| Paul George | 27 |
| Neemias Queta | 21 |
| Mitchell Robinson | 20 |
| Sam Hauser | 19 |
| Hugo Gonzalez | 16 |
| Baylor Scheierman | 16 |
| Mike Conley | 8 |
| Jordan Walsh | 7 |
| Ron Harper Jr. | 3 |
| Luka Garza | 2 |
| Chris Cenac Jr. | 1 |
| Total | 240 |
Correction 2026-07-18: the previous allocation compressed four incumbents below their 2025-26 workloads (White 34.1, Pritchard 32.4, Queta 25.3, Hauser 24.8) while giving Gonzalez 21 minutes off a 14.6-minute rookie season. White returns to 34 and Pritchard to 32 because Brown's vacated creation is guard-side and George does not replace it; Hauser rises to 19 and Walsh to 7 because 17 and 5 understated players who logged 49 and 25 starts. Gonzalez falls to 16 and Scheierman to 16 to fund it. Conley rises from 4 to 8 and Harper Jr. from 8 to 3, since the two compete for the same third-guard shift and Conley is the better organizer — public projections put Conley at 15-20 MPG (SI, ProFootballNetwork depth chart), but those are per-appearance reads, and a simultaneous-minutes model with Pritchard and White both starting cannot carry that. The center split moves to 21-20; see the depth chart note. Not adopted: the claim that Hauser's and Walsh's 2025-26 minutes should carry forward intact. Their starts were created by Tatum playing 16 games; a 72-game Tatum plus George is itself the largest single absorber of 2025-26 wing minutes, which is why the restoration is partial rather than full.
Two-way and camp players have zero simultaneous base minutes. Their dossiers carry contingent paths. If George sits, the first replacement branch is Gonzalez +7, Scheierman +6, Hauser +5, Walsh +5 and Harper +4, with Tatum/White/Pritchard absorbing the remaining creation. If Robinson sits, Queta moves toward 30 and Garza becomes a 10-16 minute streamer. If Queta sits — the branch the desk previously omitted, and the more likely one given he is the higher-availability center — Robinson moves toward 26 and Garza is the first call at 10-14 before Cenac, because Boston's stated development plan sends Cenac to Maine. If Tatum sits, George and Pritchard gain usage while the four young wings split most of the minutes.
Base 9-cat per-game projections
The line is an encyclopedia projection, not copied consensus. MPG matches the 240-minute model. Deep reserves' low minute lines describe the full-roster competitive baseline; their relevant fantasy value lives in injury scenarios.
| Player | GP | MPG | 3PM | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | FT% | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum | 72 | 34.0 | 3.1 | 27.0 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 | .457 | .852 | 3.0 |
| Derrick White | 76 | 34.0 | 2.9 | 17.1 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | .421 | .895 | 1.8 |
| Payton Pritchard | 78 | 32.0 | 3.2 | 21.1 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 0.9 | 0.1 | .468 | .889 | 1.9 |
| Paul George | 55 | 27.0 | 2.3 | 16.5 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | .445 | .870 | 2.1 |
| Neemias Queta | 72 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | .650 | .710 | 0.8 |
| Mitchell Robinson | 58 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.2 | .710 | .420 | 0.7 |
| Sam Hauser | 70 | 19.0 | 2.0 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | .430 | .870 | 0.5 |
| Hugo Gonzalez | 76 | 16.0 | 0.6 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | .474 | .670 | 0.6 |
| Baylor Scheierman | 74 | 16.0 | 1.3 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | .450 | .890 | 0.6 |
| Mike Conley | 52 | 8.0 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | .380 | .900 | 0.3 |
| Jordan Walsh | 55 | 7.0 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | .500 | .760 | 0.3 |
| Ron Harper Jr. | 50 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | .425 | .770 | 0.1 |
| Luka Garza | 35 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | .560 | .760 | 0.1 |
| Chris Cenac Jr. | 25 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | .500 | .670 | 0.1 |
Format map
| Tier | Category leagues | Points leagues | Dynasty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core draft | Tatum (Round 1), Pritchard/White (middle rounds) | Tatum (Round 1), Pritchard (middle rounds) | Tatum remains the only foundational asset |
| Risk-adjusted draft | George after safer games-volume wings; Queta/Robinson as build-dependent late bigs | George's missed-game risk pushes him down; Queta is the safer center | Gonzalez and Cenac are the priority youth bets |
| Deep/stream | Scheierman for threes, Gonzalez for rebounds/stocks, Hauser for threes | George/Tatum absences create short-term wing volume | Scheierman, Harper and Dillon are deeper holds |
| Waiver until role changes | Remaining reserves | Remaining reserves | Uzan, DeVries and Amari belong in very deep formats only |
For public market context, NBA/Yahoo's April early-first-round article included Tatum after he ranked 26th in 9-cat and 19th in Yahoo High Score during his return window, and an early industry category mock selected him 10th. Those are dated market anchors, not proof of the base rank. Sources: NBA/Yahoo early first round, June 26 industry mock discussion.
Team outcome range
| Case | Record band | Mechanism | Fantasy consequence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | 43-39 to 46-36 | Tatum's post-Achilles efficiency plateaus, George/Robinson miss major time, White's shooting decline persists | More Pritchard usage and youth minutes, but worse efficiency and late-season uncertainty |
| Base | 51-31 | Tatum returns near pre-injury form, George supplies 50-60 quality games, top-five-ish defense survives, center depth stabilizes the floor | Predictable value for Tatum/Pritchard/White; rotating streamers behind them |
| Ceiling | 56-26 to 58-24 | Tatum is fully restored, Pritchard's no-Brown gains translate, White regresses upward as a shooter, George is available for 60+ games | Four top-80 per-game assets and clearer playoff-rest risk late |
Boston went 56-26 in 2025-26, ranked first in opponent points (107.2), and lost in seven games in the first round. The July market still treated Boston as a contender: FOX listed +1300 title odds after the Brown trade, while Covers reported roughly +1200. Betting odds are market context, not a win projection. Sources: NBA team page, Basketball Reference 2025-26 team page, FOX title odds, Covers futures update.
Main uncertainty ledger
- Tatum health: he returned 10 months after right-Achilles repair, played 16 regular-season games, then missed Game 7 with left-knee stiffness. His own May framing was that the long offseason should move him from roughly 80-85% toward full readiness. The model does not treat that aspiration as a medical guarantee. NBA knee report · May interview report
- George availability: 37 games in 2025-26 included a delayed start after left-knee surgery and a 25-game anti-drug suspension. The suspension is complete; the age-36 injury/load branch remains. NBA suspension · RotoWire season review
- Center split: NBA's Robinson signing report explicitly said the starting/backup order was unclear; fantasy analysis has also projected Queta to start with a near-even split. NBA Robinson signing · SI fantasy split analysis
- Wing crowding: Gonzalez's July 24-10-5 game and Scheierman's 2025-26 spot-start production show plausible upside, but neither settles the order among Gonzalez, Scheierman, Hauser, Harper and Walsh. NBA Summer League recap · Scheierman 2025-26 role log
- Open roster/two-way decisions: Dillon Mitchell remains unsigned in the RealGM snapshot, while Uzan and DeVries are Exhibit 10 players. The final two two-way slots can materially change only deep dynasty value.
Source trail
- A / official: NBA Brown–George trade tracker, NBA offseason roster moves, NBA Queta re-signing, NBA Robinson signing, NBA Conley signing, Celtics Cenac profile, Maine Celtics summer roster.
- B / statistical and roster cross-checks: Basketball Reference 2025-26 Celtics, RealGM 2026-27 roster, CBS transactions.
- C / analysis: Boston Sports Journal rotation synopsis, SI Queta/Robinson fantasy analysis, CelticsBlog Hauser exit review.
- D / hypothesis and sentiment: July 9 rotation discussion, Haberstroh/Pritchard no-Brown discussion. These inform mechanisms only.
- Video: Mike Conley 2025-26 highlights, Paul George 2025-26 highlights, Mitchell Robinson 21-point/16-rebound game. Highlights are scouting context, never the statistical baseline.
Open questions
- Does Joe Mazzulla start Pritchard or preserve him as the bench creator?
- Which of Queta and Robinson starts and closes, and does matchup determine both?
- How aggressively will Boston rest George on back-to-backs and dense schedule stretches?
- Do Dillon Mitchell and Milos Uzan win the two open two-way slots?
- Is Gonzalez's Summer League creation a real regular-season responsibility or a development exercise?