Up: 2026-27 Fantasy Basketball Encyclopedia
Related: 2026-27 fantasy basketball projection methodology · 2026-27 fantasy basketball evidence and confidence policy
Information cutoff: 2026-07-19, America/New_York. This is an offseason model, not an official opening-night depth chart.
Correction 2026-07-19: Oklahoma City traded Luguentz Dort to Atlanta in a three-team deal completed this morning, receiving Chicago's 2027 second-round pick (via Dallas) and the two most favorable of Atlanta's 2031 and 2032 seconds; Zaccharie Risacher went from Atlanta to Dallas. Moving Dort's $17.7M drops the Thunder comfortably below the second tax apron — the stated motive — and creates a $17.7M trade exception. The roster ledger, depth chart, 240-minute model, projections, and cap narrative below were rebuilt. HoopsRumors · NBA.com · Yahoo
Executive fantasy read
- First-round anchor: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the model's No. 2-4 overall tier in both nine-category and ESPN-default points leagues. Elite scoring on positive FG and FT volume, steals, assists and manageable turnovers leave no structural punt requirement.
- Scarcity big: Chet Holmgren is the second-round category target. His blocks, rebounds, threes and positive FG% coexist in a way few centers can match; health and modest 29-minute volume are the reasons not to price him as a first-rounder.
- Injury discount: Jalen Williams has a top-30 rate ceiling but played only 33 regular-season games. The first 19 were lost to a repaired right wrist — a torn ligament in his shooting hand that he played through during the 2025 Finals on roughly 30 painkilling injections, operated on 2025-06-30 with a follow-up procedure in October pushing his debut to November 28. A right-hamstring strain (January 17 vs Miami) and then a playoff left-hamstring strain followed. The base is 58 games, not a claim that his talent declined; the wrist is also the reason to expect the shooting to recover.
- Best role bet: Ajay Mitchell averaged 13.6 points in 25.8 minutes and 21.2 points over the six 2026 playoff games Williams missed before Mitchell's own soleus strain. He is the best late/deep target, and Thunder beat coverage treats him as a live — arguably favoured — candidate for the fifth starting spot rather than a settled bench piece.
- Specialists: Cason Wallace for steals; Isaiah Hartenstein for rebounds, FG%, assists and steals from center; Alex Caruso for low-volume steals; Jared McCain for threes/scoring when a creator sits.
- Dynasty trap to avoid in redraft: lottery rookies Aday Mara and Bennett Stirtz are real long-term assets, but neither has a clean 2026-27 path through a 15-man veteran/developmental roster.
Roster ledger
The official Thunder roster and RealGM's current 2026-27 composition reconciled to 15 standard contracts and three two-way contracts as of July 18; the July 19 Dort trade leaves 14 standard contracts and one open roster spot.
| Player | Position band | Contract / roster state | Base treatment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | PG | Standard; franchise lead | Starter, primary creator |
| Cason Wallace | G | Standard | Projected starter, point-of-attack stopper |
| Jalen Williams | G/F | Standard; post-wrist-repair, hamstring recovery | Starter when active, secondary creator |
| Chet Holmgren | F/C | Standard | Starter, rim protector and second scorer |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | C | Standard; re-signed through 2028-29 | Starter, rebounder and hub |
| Ajay Mitchell | G | Standard; soleus recovery | Fifth-starter favourite after the Dort trade, first creation replacement |
| Alex Caruso | G/F | Standard | Defensive closer, managed regular-season load |
| Jared McCain | G | Standard; acquired February 4 | Bench shooter/scorer |
| Jaylin Williams | F/C | Standard | Stretch/passing third big |
| Nikola Topic | PG | Standard | Developmental organizer in crowded guard room |
| Kenrich Williams | F | Standard; re-signed one year | Matchup reserve |
| Aday Mara | C | Standard; No. 12 rookie | Developmental fifth big |
| Bennett Stirtz | G | Standard; No. 16 rookie | Developmental combo guard |
| Thomas Sorber | F/C | Standard; ACL recovery, cleared timeline for camp | Fifth-big competitor at low base minutes |
| Brooks Barnhizer | F | Two-way | Blue lead wing; contingent NBA minutes |
| Josh Dix | G/F | Two-way | Blue shooter/connector |
| Otega Oweh | G | Two-way | Blue scoring/steals guard |
The July changes were financial first and developmental second, and the Dort trade completes the pattern. Oklahoma City re-signed Hartenstein for three years and Kenrich Williams for one; signed Mara and Stirtz to rookie-scale contracts; filled all three two-way slots with Barnhizer, Dix and Oweh; and traded Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, and now Dort — three rotation perimeter players — for nothing but future second-round picks. Correction 2026-07-19: the July 18 build read the Wiggins/Joe deals as trimming; with Dort's $17.7M also gone, the second-apron story is resolved rather than pending. The Thunder are comfortably below the second apron, hold a $17.7M trade exception, and paid for it with their best point-of-attack defender — a real on-court cost that widens the fifth-starter opening and adds roughly 22 rotation minutes for the reserve guards. HoopsRumors Sources: NBA offseason ledger, updated July 9, Hartenstein official report, July 6, Wiggins trade, official July 6, Joe trade, official July 6, two-way signings, official July 3.
Projected depth chart
| Slot | First | Second | Third / contingent |
|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Ajay Mitchell | Nikola Topic / Bennett Stirtz |
| SG | Cason Wallace or Ajay Mitchell | Jared McCain | Alex Caruso / Josh Dix |
| SF | Jalen Williams | Alex Caruso | Kenrich Williams / Brooks Barnhizer / Otega Oweh |
| PF | Chet Holmgren | Alex Caruso | Jaylin Williams / Thomas Sorber |
| C | Isaiah Hartenstein | Chet Holmgren | Jaylin Williams / Aday Mara / Thomas Sorber |
Base starting five: Gilgeous-Alexander — Wallace — Jalen Williams — Holmgren — Hartenstein. This is a projection, not a coach announcement. Closing groups remain matchup-dependent: Caruso can replace Hartenstein for a switch-heavy finish, while Hartenstein is more likely to close against size such as San Antonio.
The fifth spot is now a two-man question. Thunder beat coverage had described it as "more muddled than it has been in years" with Wallace, Ajay Mitchell, and the incumbent Dort all live; at least one piece argued Mitchell is the most obvious option after serving as the secondary star alongside Gilgeous-Alexander for much of the 2026 postseason. The argument against Mitchell is fit rather than merit — starting him puts three ball-dominant guards on the floor with Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams, and his second-unit creation is a genuine asset to give up. Mitchell-starts branch: roughly 30 MPG and a 15-4-4 line, which moves him from deep-league flier to standard-league draftable; Wallace absorbs the reserve perimeter minutes and loses roughly three. Correction 2026-07-18: this desk previously listed Wallace as the settled fifth starter and filed Mitchell only as a sixth man, framing the sole open question as Wallace versus Dort. Beat reporting through July treats Mitchell as a co-favourite, so the branch is now carried explicitly (SI/OnSI). Correction 2026-07-19: the Dort trade removes the incumbent from the contest entirely and strengthens the Mitchell branch — the wing minutes Dort held no longer force a three-guard trade-off, and Caruso becomes the default first defensive wing off the bench.
240-minute competitive-game model
These are simultaneous healthy active-game minutes in one representative regulation game. They sum to exactly 240; overtime, two-way activations and non-simultaneous injury-path minutes are excluded.
| Player | Base minutes |
|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 33 |
| Jalen Williams | 30 |
| Cason Wallace | 30 |
| Chet Holmgren | 29 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 28 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 23 |
| Jared McCain | 22 |
| Alex Caruso | 21 |
| Jaylin Williams | 11 |
| Nikola Topic | 7 |
| Thomas Sorber | 6 |
| Total | 240 |
Correction 2026-07-19: Dort's 22 base minutes were redistributed after the trade: Wallace +3 (27 → 30), Mitchell +4 (24 → 28), McCain +5 (17 → 22), Caruso +4 (17 → 21), Jaylin Williams +2 (9 → 11), Topic +3 (4 → 7), Sorber +1 (5 → 6); 3 + 4 + 5 + 4 + 2 + 3 + 1 = 22. Recomputed sum: 33 + 30 + 30 + 29 + 28 + 23 + 22 + 21 + 11 + 7 + 6 = 240 exactly, verified by arithmetic. Jalen Williams was deliberately held at 30 — the hamstring history argues against loading him with the vacated wing minutes. The guards, not a like-for-like wing, inherit Dort's role because Kenrich Williams and the two-ways remain appearance-card players.
Kenrich Williams, Aday Mara and Bennett Stirtz carry no simultaneous base minutes and are handled with appearance cards below, the same treatment given to the two-ways. Correction 2026-07-18: the previous table parked 2.0, 1.0 and 1.0 MPG on those three and 0.0 on Sorber. Those sub-2 figures were residuals used to force the 240 sum rather than achievable rotation numbers — no NBA player logs 1.0 minute across 26-28 appearances — and the zero on Sorber has been overtaken by reporting that his July 1 arthroscopy carries a four-week window leaving him expected ready for the start of training camp (NBC Sports). The four freed minutes plus one taken from Jaylin Williams — the incumbent Sorber directly competes with for third/fourth-big work — go to Sorber at 5.
Mark Daigneault can use 12-14 players in the regular season; this table is therefore broader than a playoff rotation but still punishes the deepest prospects. The first Jalen Williams absence branch is Mitchell +5, McCain +4, Caruso +3, Topic +2 and a Kenrich Williams activation, with SGA absorbing more usage rather than more minutes. A Hartenstein absence moves Holmgren toward 32, Jaylin Williams toward 15 and Sorber into a 10-14 minute role with Mara as the next man. Given Hartenstein played only 47 games in 2025-26 under soleus/calf management, that branch is a live one rather than a tail. A second creator injury is the trigger that makes Topic or Stirtz relevant.
Base nine-category projections
GP is expected games; MPG matches the simultaneous 240-minute baseline. Percentages include projected makes/attempts so volume impact is visible. The primitive line feeds all format views.
| Player | GP | MPG | 3PM | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% (M/A) | FT% (M/A) | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 70 | 33.0 | 1.7 | 31.0 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | .550 (10.8/19.6) | .880 (7.7/8.8) | 2.3 |
| Jalen Williams | 58 | 30.0 | 1.2 | 19.0 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | .500 (7.2/14.4) | .840 (3.4/4.0) | 2.0 |
| Chet Holmgren | 67 | 29.0 | 1.4 | 17.6 | 9.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 1.9 | .550 (6.4/11.6) | .800 (3.4/4.3) | 1.6 |
| Cason Wallace | 76 | 30.0 | 1.6 | 10.2 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.4 | .440 (3.8/8.6) | .815 (1.1/1.3) | 1.0 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 61 | 28.0 | 1.3 | 14.8 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | .485 (5.5/11.3) | .865 (2.5/2.9) | 1.6 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 58 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | .620 (3.7/6.0) | .650 (1.4/2.2) | 1.6 |
| Jared McCain | 64 | 22.0 | 2.2 | 11.2 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | .455 (4.0/8.8) | .865 (1.0/1.2) | 1.0 |
| Alex Caruso | 58 | 21.0 | 1.1 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | .430 (2.5/5.8) | .800 (0.9/1.1) | 1.0 |
| Jaylin Williams | 64 | 11.0 | 0.9 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | .430 (1.6/3.7) | .790 (0.2/0.3) | 0.6 |
| Nikola Topic | 42 | 7.0 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | .430 (0.9/2.1) | .700 (0.3/0.4) | 0.9 |
| Thomas Sorber | 46 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | .520 (0.9/1.8) | .700 (0.4/0.5) | 0.4 |
Correction 2026-07-19: Dort's row moved to the Atlanta desk after the trade, and the seven inheriting players were rescaled to their new base minutes (rates held constant; only volume moved). McCain and Mitchell are the material fantasy gainers — McCain at 22 minutes becomes a plausible 2.2-threes streamer, and Mitchell's base line now approaches his fifth-starter branch even before that battle resolves.
The remaining four standard contracts and the three two-ways carry non-additive appearance cards rather than base minutes: Kenrich Williams 50 GP/8.0 appearance MPG; Aday Mara 28/7.0; Bennett Stirtz 26/7.0; Brooks Barnhizer 18/6.0; Otega Oweh 12/5.0; Josh Dix 10/4.0. Correction 2026-07-18: Thomas Sorber moves off the appearance-card treatment into the base table at 5.0 MPG, and Kenrich Williams, Mara and Stirtz move onto it. The earlier build assumed Sorber was not cleared for NBA games and gave developmental base minutes to Mara, who has never played an NBA minute; the July reporting is that Sorber is expected ready for the start of training camp, roughly two months before opening night, which makes him the only OKC big behind Hartenstein with both a contingent path and a first-round pedigree. Role is still not guaranteed — he is in a live three-way contest with Mara and Jaylin Williams.
Format and market map
Points outlook uses the ESPN default formula: PTS + 3PM - FGA + 2FGM - FTA + FTM + REB + 2AST + 4STL + 4BLK - 2TO. Published ranks retain their native formats rather than being blended.
| Player / tier | Nine-category redraft | ESPN-default points | Dynasty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gilgeous-Alexander | Pick 2-4 | Pick 2-5 | Top-five cornerstone |
| Holmgren | Round 2; early Round 3 only if availability-averse | Round 2-3 | Top-15 cornerstone |
| Jalen Williams | Round 3-5, depending on health appetite | Round 3-4 | Top-25 but injury-discounted |
| Mitchell | Late rounds in deep leagues, earlier if he wins the fifth starting spot; watch preseason | Late-round upside | Top-100 development asset |
| Wallace / Hartenstein | Wallace steals specialist; Hartenstein late center | Both outside top 100 in shallow formats | Wallace age advantage; Hartenstein contender asset |
| Caruso / McCain / Jaylin | Stream or deep roto; McCain is draftable in deep leagues at 22 minutes | Waiver until role expands | McCain is the best long-horizon scorer |
| Topic / Mara / Stirtz / Sorber | No standard-redraft draft value | No standard-redraft draft value | Stashes whose value is mostly beyond 2026-27 |
The public market is unusually coherent on SGA and unusually split on Holmgren and Williams:
- Dan Titus' April 14 Yahoo/NBA list ranked SGA No. 3 and called him top three in 9-cat/top five in High Score. Source
- ESPN's April 14 H2H points list placed SGA No. 3, Holmgren No. 23, Jalen Williams No. 39, Hartenstein No. 135 and Wallace No. 142. Source
- Dynatyze's July 18 multi-format board displayed SGA No. 2, Holmgren No. 14 and Jalen Williams No. 20. Source
- Hashtag Basketball's July 2 analyst dynasty ranks were SGA No. 2, Holmgren No. 14, Jalen Williams No. 20, Hartenstein No. 85, Mitchell No. 86, Wallace No. 132, Mara No. 173 and Stirtz No. 282. Source
- NBC/Rotoworld's May 7 ten-team, eight-category industry mock selected SGA fourth overall, Holmgren 22nd and Jalen Williams 45th. Turnovers were excluded, so it should not be treated as 9-cat ADP. Source
- A substantive April/July Reddit early-ADP post placed SGA third and Holmgren 17th but left Jalen Williams outside its first 60, illustrating how games-played fear can overwhelm rate confidence. It is community sentiment, not consensus. Source
Team outcome range
| Case | Record band | Mechanism | Fantasy consequence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | 54-28 to 57-25 | Williams' hamstrings recur, Hartenstein/Caruso miss time, guard crowding reduces offensive coherence, San Antonio exposes the size/wing mismatch again | Mitchell/McCain/Wallace gain volume; SGA retains rates but carries more creation; late shutdown risk is lower because seeding matters |
| Base | 63-19 | SGA remains an MVP-level engine, Williams provides roughly 55-60 games, the defense stays historically strong, and Holmgren/Hartenstein split size jobs | Three premium assets; deep reserves remain streamers because wins arrive through depth |
| Ceiling | 67-15 to 70-12 | Williams and Holmgren are healthy, the post-Joe/Wiggins shots consolidate cleanly, and one of McCain/Mitchell makes a leap | Four top-70 per-game assets, but more fourth-quarter rest in decided games |
Oklahoma City went 64-18 in 2025-26 with an 11.04 SRS, 118.9 offensive rating and league-best 107.7 defensive rating, then lost the Western Conference finals to San Antonio in seven games. Basketball Reference The vault's July 17 RAPM/availability model projects 64.6 wins with a 59-70 central band, but its source row is explicitly flagged for many rookies/replacement identities. A July 17 FanDuel market snapshot posted a 61.5 win total, and July 14-18 championship markets made Oklahoma City and San Antonio co-favorites around +260. Those odds are market context, not a causal projection. Bet365 futures · VegasInsider July 16 board
Main uncertainty ledger
- Jalen Williams' wrist, then his hamstrings: the 33-game season had three separate causes, and the order matters. He missed the first 19 games recovering from surgical repair of a torn ligament in his right — shooting — wrist, an injury he played through during the 2025 Finals on roughly 30 painkilling injections; the operation was 2025-06-30 and an October follow-up procedure pushed his debut to November 28. He then strained his right hamstring on January 17 versus Miami, missed 10 games, returned February 9 and reaggravated it, with the residual 30-game absence figure being arithmetic (82 − 19 − 33) rather than one continuous stretch. In the playoffs he suffered a Grade 1 left-hamstring strain in Game 2 of the first round versus Phoenix, missed the rest of that series and the entire Lakers sweep, returned for West finals Game 1 (26 points in 37 double-OT minutes), reaggravated it in the first quarter of Game 2, and made one 10-minute Game 6 appearance — 5 of 15 playoff games played, 10 missed, two failed returns. There was no public July return-to-play clearance at the cutoff. Rate confidence is high; availability confidence is low, and the three-round pattern is a worse signal than a single Game 7 absence. The offsetting read is that the repaired wrist is the most plausible cause of his three-point collapse from .365 to .299 on halved volume, which is a reason to buy the shooting rebound rather than fade it. NBA first-round Game 2 diagnosis · NBA return after conference semifinals · ESPN West finals Game 2 exit · NBA Game 7 report
- Mitchell's right soleus: he exited the third quarter of West finals Game 3 and was ruled out for Games 4, 5, 6 and 7 with a right soleus (calf) strain — the final four games of the series, not a single Game 7 DNP. It followed a 20-game regular-season absence for an abdominal strain and a sprained left ankle. No public July ramp was found. A four-game conference-finals absence in a calf complex is a real durability signal for a guard whose value is burst and change of direction; the projection trims GP but does not assume chronic damage. SI/OnSI Game 4 ruling · NBA Game 7 report
- Hartenstein's load: he played 47 games amid soleus/calf management but re-signed for three years. Mara's selection is long-term insurance, not evidence that Hartenstein immediately loses the starting role. Hartenstein agreement
- Sorber's knee — cleared for camp, role not guaranteed: after missing 2025-26 with a right ACL tear, he underwent a minor arthroscopy on July 1 with a four-week return to full basketball activities. Reporting has him ruled out for Summer League only and expected ready for the start of training camp, which Oklahoma City opens in the first week of October. The open question is therefore not medical clearance but whether he beats Mara and Jaylin Williams for backup-big work behind Hartenstein. Correction 2026-07-18: this entry previously read "that is not the same as clearance for unrestricted NBA games," which inverted the reporting and left him at zero base minutes while awarding them to a rookie who has never played an NBA minute. NBC Sports, July 1 · Hoops Rumors · NBA player update
- Topic's developmental state: he returned in February after a torn ACL, testicular-cancer surgery and chemotherapy, then played only ten NBA games. Health recovery is an observed success; a regular rotation role is not. NBA debut report
- Rookie translation: Oklahoma City's Summer League group went 0-7. Stirtz improved as a creator; Mara flashed passing but showed mobility/FT concerns. The model treats Summer League as skill evidence only, not an NBA box-score sample. NBA Warriors recap · NBA Nuggets recap · July 17 community discussion
Source trail
- A / official: Thunder roster, McCain acquisition, Mara/Stirtz draft transaction, two-way signings, Hartenstein re-signing, 2026 playoff injury report.
- B / statistical and roster cross-checks: Basketball Reference 2025-26 Thunder, RealGM current roster, RealGM provisional depth chart.
- C / fantasy analysis: Yahoo/NBA early first round, ESPN points ranks, NBC eight-cat industry mock, Hashtag dynasty ranks, Dynatyze July 18 board.
- D / social and community hypotheses: early 9-cat ADP discussion, Chet rank skepticism, post-draft Thunder rotation discussion, Mara/Stirtz Summer League discussion. These generate mechanisms only.
- Video/podcast index: NBA Thunder–Warriors Summer League recap and video, Angle Fantasy Basketball May dynasty-rank episode, Locked On Thunder March 7 team episode. The first two inform rookie/dynasty context; the Locked On episode is historical role context, not a projection source.
Open questions
- Has Jalen Williams received full-speed bilateral hamstring clearance, is the repaired right wrist shooting normally, and will Oklahoma City cap back-to-backs early?
- Who wins the fifth starting spot — Wallace or Mitchell? (Correction 2026-07-19: Dort, the incumbent, was traded to Atlanta.) This remains the most draft-relevant unresolved question on the roster.
- Does Oklahoma City use the $17.7M Dort trade exception and open roster spot on a wing before camp, or bank the flexibility?
- Does Sorber's camp clearance convert into rotation minutes, or does Mara or Jaylin Williams win the backup-big job behind a 47-game Hartenstein?
- Which of Mitchell and McCain owns the largest non-SGA creation share when Williams is active?
- Can Holmgren's offensive role grow without sacrificing the defensive workload that drives his fantasy scarcity?
- Is Topic healthy enough for a normal training camp, and can he beat Stirtz for developmental guard minutes?
- Does Sorber receive an Oklahoma City Blue ramp before competing with Mara for fifth-big minutes?