Team: Oklahoma City Thunder · PG/SG/SF · Age 22 · Standard contract · Base role: 27-minute projected starting guard
Projection card
| GP | MPG | 3PM | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% (M/A) | FT% (M/A) | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | 27.0 | 1.4 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | .440 (3.4/7.7) | .815 (1.0/1.2) | 0.9 |
Nine-category: late-round steals specialist; more attractive in roto and punt-points builds. ESPN-default points: outside the standard top 120 because real defensive impact is not fully captured beyond steals/blocks. Dynasty: Hashtag No. 132; age and possible long-term starter status provide upside, but usage is structurally scarce.
Why the line looks like this
Wallace played 77 games in 2025-26 and averaged 8.6 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.9 steals in 26.6 minutes. He started 58 games, though many were enabled by Jalen Williams' absences. The projection preserves the workload and gives him the first-unit place vacated in the model by moving Luguentz Dort to the bench.
The offensive ceiling remains constrained by SGA, Williams, Holmgren and the Mitchell/McCain reserve creation group. ESPN's April points list ranked Wallace 142nd, while Hashtag's July dynasty list ranked him 132nd. Those rankings correctly identify the format split: 1.9 steals are a category-changing rate but cannot independently carry points scoring.
Sources: Basketball Reference 2025-26, RealGM provisional depth chart, ESPN points rankings, Hashtag dynasty.
Category shape
- Elite: steals; strong turnovers for a guard.
- Useful: threes, guard blocks and positional eligibility where retained.
- Costs: points, FT volume and only average FG%; assists remain modest despite PG eligibility.
- Build fit: punt-points, defensive-event or roto builds needing steals without turnover damage.
Floor, base, ceiling
- Floor: Dort keeps the starting job, Wallace settles near 23 minutes and offers only specialist value.
- Base: 27 minutes and nearly two steals with 9-3-3 support.
- Ceiling: 31 minutes plus better finishing produces 12 points, four assists and two steals, a top-90 category season.
Risk and confidence
| Component | Confidence | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Roster | Very high | Core young guard entering extension window |
| Minutes | Medium-high | 77 games/58 starts, but starting alignment remains unannounced |
| Rates | High for steals; medium elsewhere | Three NBA seasons establish defense, offense still evolving |
| Availability | High | Played 77 games in 2025-26 |
Career record
Pre-NBA: Kentucky, one season (2022-23). 32 games, 32.2 minutes, 11.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 2.0 steals on .446 FG / .346 3P / .757 FT. The steal rate was the draft calling card and it has translated exactly. A 2022 McDonald's All-American out of Richardson, Texas, where he was the state's Gatorade Player of the Year. Draft: 2023, first round, 10th overall, Dallas Mavericks — traded on draft night to Oklahoma City with Dāvis Bertāns for the 12th pick, which Dallas used on Dereck Lively II.
| Season | Age | Team | GP | MPG | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | 3PM | FG% | FT% | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 20 | OKC | 82 | 20.6 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.2 | .491 | .784 | 0.5 |
| 2024-25 | 21 | OKC | 68 | 27.6 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 1.1 | .474 | .811 | 0.9 |
| 2025-26 | 22 | OKC | 77 | 26.6 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 1.3 | .432 | .809 | 0.9 |
| Career | 227 | 24.7 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 1.2 | .463 | .803 | 0.8 |
Starts by season: 13, 43, 58. Three-point percentage: .419, .356, .351 — the rookie mark was the outlier, not the baseline.
Fantasy history: 2024-25 finished inside the top 100 for per-game nine-category value, which is a genuinely strong return on 27.6 minutes and single-digit scoring; he ranked third in the league in steals per game that season. 2025-26's season-end nine-category rank is not verifiable from a public source — the projection-page numbers circulating for that year are preseason estimates, not results — so treat the finish as unconfirmed, though the raw line held or improved everywhere except field-goal percentage. Points-league shape is much worse than category shape in every season, and structurally so: ESPN placed him 142nd in its April 2026 points list against Hashtag's 132nd dynasty mark, because a points format pays nothing for the low-turnover, high-steal, low-usage combination that is his entire fantasy case.
Durability: 82, 68, 77. The rookie year was a full 82. 2024-25's 14 missed games trace largely to a right shoulder strain that surfaced just before the All-Star break — it forced him out of the Rising Stars game — and recurred through February and March 2025, with a further absence against Phoenix on April 9; he was fully available for the playoffs. 2025-26's five missed games were minor and unrelated to each other: right knee soreness after leaving the January 2 game against Golden State before halftime, hip soreness after exiting a late-January loss to Toronto, and a toe issue that cost him the final two regular-season games before he returned for Game 1 of the playoffs. Nothing in the record is structural, and the shoulder has not resurfaced since 2025.
Trajectory: Wallace's development has been almost entirely defensive and almost entirely front-loaded. The minutes jump from 20.6 to 27.6 between his rookie and sophomore years doubled his steal rate from 0.9 to 1.8, and the third year added only 0.1 more steals on slightly fewer minutes — meaning the steal production is now a stable rate rather than a rising one, which is the good news and the bad news at once. Offensively the arc is flat to negative: per-36 scoring has moved 11.9, 11.0, 11.6 across three seasons while field-goal percentage has fallen .491, .474, .432, and the assist rate has crept up only in step with minutes. That combination says the 2025-26 shooting decline was not a mirage of role but a real efficiency problem, most likely a shot diet pushed further from the rim by Oklahoma City's hierarchy. He is 23 and still on the upward half of the aging curve, so a rebound toward the mid-.460s is the reasonable expectation, but the ceiling for 2026-27 is constrained by something the aging curve cannot fix — on a roster with Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams and Holmgren, the usage he would need to become more than a steals specialist is simply not available.
Career sources: ESPN career stats · StatMuse per-season · Wikipedia · Pro Football Network fantasy outlook on the 2024-25 top-100 finish · SI on the 2025 shoulder injury and Rising Stars withdrawal
Open questions
- Does he start over Dort on opening night?
- Can he create enough rim pressure to lift assists and free throws?
- Will steals regress from 1.9, or is the workload/role stable enough to sustain it?