Related NBA work: Dallas Mavericks 2026-27 season · Dallas Mavericks roster and minutes ledger · Dallas Mavericks health ledger · Dallas model briefing
Projection frame
- As of: July 19, 2026. Training camp, the 2026-27 schedule, and official opening-night lineups are not yet available.
Correction 2026-07-19: Dallas acquired Zaccharie Risacher from Atlanta in a three-team trade completed this morning, sending Ryan Nembhard to the Hawks and Chicago's 2027 second-round pick to Oklahoma City (which also moved Lu Dort to Atlanta for apron relief). Dallas absorbed Risacher's $13.8M into an existing trade exception, sits a reported $2.3M under the luxury-tax line, and carries 16 standard contracts — one over the regular-season limit. This is Ujiri's stated buy-low play: a 21-year-old former No. 1 pick added to the Flagg-timeline wing core for a second-rounder and a third point guard. The depth chart, 240 model, projections, and guard hierarchy below were rebuilt. HoopsRumors · NBA.com · Yahoo
- Format: nine-category, per-game projection.
FG% (FGA)andFT% (FTA)preserve percentage-volume impact;3PMis made threes; turnovers are the ninth category. - Minutes:
GP × MPG ÷ 82is the player's season-weighted share of the 240 regulation minutes available each game. The unrounded shares total exactly 240.00; this lets projected injury absences flow to replacements instead of pretending every player is simultaneously healthy. - Interpretation: GP and MPG are desk forecasts, not reports. Rights, two-way, and back-roster players can appear across the season without all occupying standard contracts at once.
- Points leagues: scoring varies by platform, so the desk gives portable role/volume tiers rather than a false universal points total.
Verified roster and depth chart
Dusty May is the head coach, hired from Michigan in June 2026 after Jason Kidd was dismissed following a 26-56 season. The front office is also new: Masai Ujiri became president and alternate governor on May 4, 2026, and Mike Schmitz was named general manager on May 8 after serving as Portland's assistant GM. Ujiri has publicly framed the offseason as future-based, which raises rather than lowers the odds that Washington, Gafford, or Thompson is moved in-season.
The NBA team page listed the full Dallas inventory on July 18, but its acquisition field still described Tarik Biberović as rights-only even after Dallas announced his July 10 signing. Dated transaction records outrank that stale field. Sergio De Larrea signed a four-year rookie-scale contract on July 3, 2026 at 120% of scale ($3.18M for 2026-27); he is a rostered rookie, not a draft-and-stash. Tobi Lawal is on a two-way contract; John Poulakidas was also signed to a two-way in March. Vsevolod Ishchenko remains a draft-rights stash in this model. Same-day transaction uncertainty: restricted free agent Moussa Cisse agreed to a two-year Knicks offer sheet on July 18, leaving Dallas 48 hours to match. His row is therefore a match-branch placeholder, not a claim that he will remain.
Dwight Powell and Brandon Williams are unsigned unrestricted free agents and are not carried in the depth chart or the minutes model. Dallas holds only Early Bird rights on Williams, who has been linked to Phoenix, Golden State, and Boston; Powell's three-year deal expired and he remains unsigned at age 34.
2026 transaction ledger
| Date | Move | Dallas receives | Dallas sends |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5-6, 2026 | Anthony Davis traded to Washington in a nine-player, three-team deal with Charlotte | Khris Middleton, AJ Johnson, Malaki Branham, Marvin Bagley III, two firsts, three seconds | Anthony Davis, D'Angelo Russell, Jaden Hardy |
| May 4 / May 8, 2026 | Front-office rebuild | Masai Ujiri (president), Mike Schmitz (GM) | — |
| June 2026 | Coaching change | Dusty May (head coach) | Jason Kidd (dismissed) |
| June 23, 2026 | 2026 draft | Morez Johnson Jr. (No. 9), Sergio De Larrea (No. 25) | — |
| June 29, 2026 | Team option exercised | Ryan Nembhard, 2026-27 | — |
| July 2, 2026 | Free agency | — | Marvin Bagley III (one year, Denver) |
| July 3, 2026 | Rookie signings | De Larrea (four years, $16.3M), Tobi Lawal (two-way) | — |
| July 8, 2026 | Six-team trade with Detroit, Memphis, the Clippers, Milwaukee, and Washington | Santi Aldama and Biberović's rights (Memphis), Marcus Sasser (Detroit) | AJ Johnson, a top-20-protected 2030 first (via Golden State), a 2029 second (via Houston); Khris Middleton sign-and-traded to Washington |
| July 10, 2026 | Signing | Tarik Biberović (two years, ~$6M) | — |
| July 2026 free agency | Departures, unsigned | — | Dwight Powell (UFA), Brandon Williams (UFA) |
| July 19, 2026 | Three-team trade with Oklahoma City and Atlanta | Zaccharie Risacher (via trade exception) | Ryan Nembhard (to Atlanta), Chicago's 2027 second-round pick (to OKC) |
The departures are what create the usage vacuum every projection below assumes. Dallas has shed Davis, Russell, Hardy, Middleton, AJ Johnson, Bagley, Powell (14.3 MPG), and Williams (22.2 MPG, 13.0 PPG). Williams alone is the single largest vacated bench-guard workload on the roster, and this desk routes it to Sasser and De Larrea (Nembhard carried it until the July 19 trade) rather than to a veteran replacement Dallas has not signed.
| Position | First line | Second line | Contingency / development |
|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Kyrie Irving | Marcus Sasser | Sergio De Larrea |
| SG | Max Christie | Tarik Biberović / Klay Thompson | John Poulakidas |
| SF | Cooper Flagg | Zaccharie Risacher / Naji Marshall | Caleb Martin, Biberović |
| PF | P. J. Washington | Santi Aldama / Morez Johnson Jr. | Tyler Smith, Tobi Lawal |
| C | Daniel Gafford | Dereck Lively II / Morez | Aldama, Moussa Cisse (Knicks offer sheet pending) |
| Stash | — | — | Vsevolod Ishchenko |
This is a functional depth chart, not an announced starting five. Flagg, Marshall, Washington, Aldama, and Morez can cross nominal positions; Sasser is more scorer than full-service lead guard; and Lively's return can move Gafford and Morez by several minutes.
Exact 240-minute model
| Player | GP | MPG when active | GP × MPG ÷ 82 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | 60 | 31 | 22.68 |
| Cooper Flagg | 72 | 36 | 31.61 |
| Max Christie | 74 | 26 | 23.46 |
| P. J. Washington | 66 | 28 | 22.54 |
| Naji Marshall | 70 | 25 | 21.34 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 70 | 22 | 18.78 |
| Santi Aldama | 62 | 24 | 18.15 |
| Daniel Gafford | 68 | 24 | 19.90 |
| Klay Thompson | 38 | 12 | 5.56 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. | 70 | 17 | 14.51 |
| Dereck Lively II | 38 | 20 | 9.27 |
| Tarik Biberović | 54 | 15 | 9.88 |
| Marcus Sasser | 58 | 16 | 11.32 |
| Sergio De Larrea | 48 | 12 | 7.02 |
| Caleb Martin | 30 | 6 | 2.20 |
| John Poulakidas | 12 | 5 | 0.73 |
| Moussa Cisse (match branch) | 8 | 4 | 0.39 |
| Tyler Smith | 12 | 3 | 0.44 |
| Tobi Lawal | 9 | 2 | 0.22 |
| Vsevolod Ishchenko | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Total | — | — | 240.00 |
The exact arithmetic is based on unrounded shares. A healthy-night rotation will not look like these season-weighted shares: Irving and Lively play their full active-game MPG when available, while Gafford, Morez, the young guards, and the back roster absorb their missed games.
Cisse accounts for only 32 of 19,680 projected season player-minutes (0.39 per team game). If Dallas declines to match New York's offer sheet, those minutes move to Lawal, Morez, or another final-roster center without changing any core-player projection.
Correction 2026-07-19: the model was rebalanced for the Risacher trade. Nembhard's 930 weighted player-minutes (62 GP × 15) left the model; Risacher entered at 1,540 (70 × 22). His guard minutes were routed to Sasser (56 × 14 → 58 × 16, +144) and De Larrea (46 × 10 → 48 × 12, +116); the wing minutes Risacher occupies were taken from Christie (74 × 29 → 74 × 26, −222), Marshall (70 × 27 → 70 × 25, −140), Biberović (60 × 18 → 54 × 15, −270), Thompson (38 × 15 → 38 × 12, −114), and Martin (38 × 8 → 30 × 6, −124). Check: −930 + 1,540 + 144 + 116 − 222 − 140 − 270 − 114 − 124 = 0; the season total remains 19,680 player-minutes, and 19,680 ÷ 82 = 240.00 exactly — recomputed and verified by arithmetic, with the displayed rounded shares also summing to 240.00. The Thompson trim deepens the existing two-branch treatment rather than reversing it: Risacher now occupies the wing/shooting minutes Thompson would vacate.
Correction 2026-07-18: Powell (20 GP × 6) and Williams (12 GP × 5) were removed from the model — both are unsigned unrestricted free agents absent from ESPN's current Dallas roster and HoopsHype's 2026-27 cap sheet. Their 180 combined weighted minutes, plus 474 taken from Thompson (58 GP × 18 → 38 × 15, on Marc Stein's reporting that Dallas is actively seeking a Thompson trade with a buyout not ruled out), were redistributed to Nembhard (50 GP × 10 → 62 × 15), Sasser (52 × 12 → 56 × 14), and De Larrea (44 × 9 → 46 × 10). The prior model halved a retained rookie's minutes while the guard depth in front of him decreased, which was backwards: Williams vacated 22.2 MPG and Irving is projected for only 60 games. The unrounded shares still total exactly 240.00.
Nine-category per-game projections
| Player | FG% (FGA) | FT% (FTA) | 3PM | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | .485 (19.2) | .830 (5.7) | 1.6 | 24.8 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 2.6 |
| Kyrie Irving | .485 (16.5) | .900 (4.0) | 2.7 | 21.5 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 2.3 |
| Max Christie | .450 (9.7) | .880 (1.8) | 2.3 | 12.9 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| P. J. Washington | .445 (10.8) | .720 (2.6) | 1.6 | 13.2 | 6.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Naji Marshall | .500 (10.4) | .760 (3.2) | 0.9 | 13.4 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.5 |
| Santi Aldama | .475 (9.9) | .700 (2.3) | 1.5 | 12.7 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Daniel Gafford | .660 (6.4) | .690 (2.7) | 0.0 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Klay Thompson | .400 (7.7) | .800 (0.6) | 2.2 | 8.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | .455 (7.6) | .690 (1.4) | 1.4 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. | .570 (6.2) | .730 (2.0) | 0.3 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Dereck Lively II | .650 (5.0) | .700 (1.8) | 0.0 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Tarik Biberović | .440 (7.1) | .850 (1.0) | 2.0 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.8 |
| Marcus Sasser | .420 (6.7) | .830 (1.0) | 1.7 | 8.4 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.1 |
| Sergio De Larrea | .440 (3.8) | .800 (0.8) | 0.7 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.0 |
| Caleb Martin | .440 (2.7) | .700 (0.7) | 0.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| John Poulakidas | .410 (2.4) | .850 (0.2) | 0.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Moussa Cisse | .580 (1.3) | .520 (0.5) | 0.0 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Tyler Smith | .420 (1.1) | .700 (0.2) | 0.3 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Tobi Lawal | .500 (0.5) | .700 (0.1) | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Vsevolod Ishchenko | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Draft board by format
| Player | 9-cat redraft | Points leagues | Dynasty | Desk view |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | Target picks 16–24; top-10 ceiling | Early second, late-first ceiling | Elite top-five asset | The market is already aggressive: a July industry mock used pick 16; one June list ranked him 27; FantasyPros' visible experts ranged from 9 to 46. Do not pay for the ceiling without a three-point gain. |
| Kyrie Irving | Per-game top-45 upside; totals discount into rounds 5–7 | Strong when active, but GP risk is punitive | Win-now only; age-34 decline asset | Draft only with IL depth. Dallas says it expects him ready for camp, but he has not played an NBA game since March 2025. |
| Daniel Gafford | Late-round FG%/blocks target | Useful center volume | Hold / modest buy | Lively's delay protects the early-season path; Morez and Aldama cap a full 30-minute breakout. |
| P. J. Washington | Late-round multi-category forward | Fringe standard-league pick | Stable middle-aged asset | One block and one three per game remain useful, but trade and frontcourt congestion are real. |
| Santi Aldama | Late-round upside if knee is cleared | Better in deeper points formats | Age-25 hold / buy | Dallas paid real assets, but Flagg/Morez/Washington/Gafford/Lively create role friction. |
| Morez Johnson Jr. | Blocks/rebounds watch list; punt-FT fit | Rookie upside stash | Strong young-big target | Two Summer League games were spectacular and meaningless as a projection sample; his defense can still earn 17 minutes immediately. |
| Dereck Lively II | IL stash only until running/contact milestones | Health-dependent streamer | Massive health discount | No timetable and not running on June 26 make draft cost more important than theoretical per-minute value. |
| Max Christie | Deep-league threes and low mistakes | Low-ceiling rotation value | Young role-player hold | Cleanest stable wing-minute bet after Flagg. |
| Naji Marshall | Deep-league glue / short-term streamer | Better than in 9-cat | Hold | Efficient scoring and assists survive, but 2025-26's 15.2 PPG should fall with Irving and new depth. |
| Tarik Biberović | Three-point specialist flier | Deep-league scorer | Interesting age-25 NBA translation bet | His 41.9% EuroLeague and 48.9% Turkish-league three-point marks are inputs, not NBA forecasts. |
| Zaccharie Risacher | Picks 130-170 in deep leagues; standard-league watch list | Watch list | Buy-low development hold with new organizational sponsorship | Acquired July 19 for effectively a second-rounder plus Nembhard. A 22-minute defend-and-space role next to Flagg is the base; a Thompson exit is the path to mid-20s minutes where his threes and stocks matter. Rates, not role, are now the constraint. |
| Klay Thompson | Do not draft outside deep threes-only formats | Matchup streamer if he opens in Dallas | Minimal | Biberović, Christie, and now Risacher threaten the shooting-wing role, and the larger issue is that Dallas is trying to move him. Treat any Dallas line as one branch of two. |
| Everyone else | Waiver / deep dynasty only | Injury-activated | Prospect-specific | Correction 2026-07-19: Nembhard was traded to Atlanta, which makes Sasser the first reserve guard and assists handcuff to Irving and pulls De Larrea's development timeline forward; both gained minutes in the rebalanced model. |
Role and health swing map
Kyrie Irving
Dallas officially ruled Irving out for all of 2025-26 on February 18 while he continued rehabilitation from March 2025 left-ACL reconstruction. A February 20 team story said the extended runway should make him fully ready for 2026-27 camp. That is organizational optimism, not evidence of restored burst, contact tolerance, or back-to-back availability. The 60-game, 31-MPG median is deliberately below a normal star workload.
If cleared without restrictions: raise Irving to 33 MPG and 23–24 PPG; trim Flagg assists/usage slightly but raise his efficiency; reduce Sasser and De Larrea. If delayed or managed: Flagg becomes a first-side initiator and Sasser gains shots and streamable assists (the Nembhard branch of this scenario left with the July 19 trade).
Dereck Lively II
Lively played seven games in 2025-26, underwent season-ending right-foot surgery in December, and said on June 26 that he had shed the boot but had not progressed to running and had no timetable. This is the largest downside tail on the roster. The 38-game projection should move sharply only after running, contact, full practice, and preseason participation are observed.
If healthy for camp: Lively can reach 24–26 MPG and top-100 per-game value through FG%, rebounds, blocks, and low usage. If delayed: Gafford is the primary winner, Morez earns center minutes, and Aldama receives more small-ball-five work.
Santi Aldama
Aldama's 2025-26 season ended after recurrent right-knee trouble and March arthroscopy. His 43-game line—14.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.7 blocks, 35.0% from three—shows a fantasy-friendly template, but the 24-MPG median discounts both health and Dallas's crowded frontcourt.
Morez Johnson Jr.
The No. 9 pick averaged 13.1 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.1 blocks, and 0.7 steals at Michigan. He then produced 18.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.0 blocks, and 2.5 steals in two Summer League games before an illness ended his tournament. The defensive events are an upside clue, not a stable NBA rate. His floor is a 12-minute physical backup; his ceiling is a 24-minute center/forward who makes either Washington or Gafford expendable.
Frontcourt transaction risk
Washington, Gafford, Lively, Aldama, Morez, and Flagg cannot all receive their best positions and normal minutes. Marc Stein reports that Thompson, Gafford, and Washington are the players Dallas is most open to moving, and that Dallas's stated preference for Thompson specifically is a trade, with a buyout not ruled out if none materialises by August or September. No unverified destination is included here. A two-for-one trade for a guard would raise the remaining frontcourt players and simplify the projection.
Klay Thompson, two branches. Remains in Dallas: the 38-game, 15-MPG line above, roughly 8.9 points and 2.2 threes, a threes-only streamer. Traded or bought out: zero Dallas value; his shooting minutes go to Biberović and Christie, with a marginal lift to Sasser. Miami has been linked to him only in a buyout scenario; Golden State and Denver have also been floated. His $17.4M expiring is Dallas's cleanest matching salary, which is itself a reason the branch is live.
Correction 2026-07-18: Thompson's projection was cut from 58 GP × 18 MPG to 38 × 15 and split into two branches. The prior line gave a full-season Dallas role to a player the front office is actively shopping (Marc Stein, July 2026). The desk already treats Cisse's offer sheet as a branch; Thompson gets the same treatment.
Team outcome range
| Outcome | Wins | Probability posture | Fantasy consequences |
|---|---|---|---|
| Downside | 24–28 | Lively delayed, Irving ineffective or absent, rookie/guard depth exposed | Flagg gains volume but loses efficiency; shutdown risk grows late; Gafford and Sasser stream while Risacher's minutes rise; veterans become trade candidates. |
| Median | 32–36 | Partial Irving return, Gafford/Morez cover Lively, Flagg makes a normal Year-2 leap | Flagg returns second-round value; several centers/forwards cannibalize one another; no second early-round fantasy star. |
| Upside | 39–43 | Irving close to prior form, Lively available, Flagg becomes a positive star, May's pace/passing translate | Better efficiency and assist environment; Lively/Gafford both viable; rest risk increases only if a playoff seed is secured. |
Rome's existing model baseline is 34.4 wins with a 28–41 p10–p90 band, 49.3% top-10/play-in probability, and 19.2% playoff probability. This desk keeps the 34-win median and uses a wider basketball narrative tail because health news after the model run remains unresolved.
Floor and ceiling summary
- Team fantasy floor: one high-volume star, a rotating stream of center value, and too many 18–27-minute forwards to trust. Poor shooting lineups can pull Flagg back toward his rookie efficiency.
- Team fantasy ceiling: Flagg adds one made three and ~4 points per game without losing stocks; Irving returns at 30+ minutes; one of Lively/Morez becomes a reliable blocks center; Aldama's knee and shooting unlock frontcourt spacing.
- Best draft leverage: do not price every health return simultaneously. If drafting Irving, avoid also paying ceiling cost for Lively. If taking Flagg at pick 16, the roster needs percentage/category support rather than another speculative volume bet.
Sources
- NBA Dallas team page — official roster, team record, coach, and July 18 fantasy updates; accessed July 18, 2026. The Biberović acquisition label lagged his signing.
- Mavericks acquire Santi Aldama, Tarik Biberović's rights, and Marcus Sasser — official Dallas transaction release, July 8, 2026.
- Six-team trade made official — July 8, 2026; outgoing Dallas assets (AJ Johnson, top-20-protected 2030 Golden State first, 2029 Houston second) and the Middleton sign-and-trade to Washington.
- Anthony Davis traded to Washington in a nine-player, three-team deal — official league report, February 2026.
- Mavericks name Masai Ujiri president and alternate governor — official release, May 4, 2026.
- Mavericks name Mike Schmitz general manager — official release, May 8, 2026.
- Mavericks sign Sergio De Larrea to a rookie contract — July 3, 2026; four years, $16.3M at 120% of scale, confirming he is not a draft-and-stash.
- ESPN Dallas roster — accessed July 18, 2026; Powell and Williams absent, De Larrea present.
- Brandon Williams draws Suns, Warriors, Celtics interest — July 2026; unrestricted free agent, Dallas holds Early Bird rights only.
- Dwight Powell contract status — accessed July 18, 2026; expired deal, unsigned unrestricted free agent.
- Marc Stein on Dallas's Klay Thompson stance — July 2026; trade preferred, buyout not ruled out if nothing materialises by August or September.
- Nuggets sign Marvin Bagley III — July 2, 2026; one year, veteran minimum.
- Dallas signs Tarik Biberović — July 10, 2026; secondary report of the completed contract, with two-year/$6 million reported terms.
- Mavericks exercise Ryan Nembhard's team option — official Dallas release, June 29, 2026.
- Mavericks select Morez Johnson Jr. ninth — official Dallas release, June 23, 2026.
- Morez Johnson Jr. NBA draft profile — official college statistics and profile; accessed July 18, 2026.
- Morez Johnson Summer League defense — official Dallas report, July 12, 2026.
- Tobi Lawal signs a two-way — official Texas Legends/Mavericks release, July 2026.
- John Poulakidas signs a two-way — official G League release, March 2026.
- NBA 2026 qualifying-offer tracker — official league page identifying Cisse as a restricted two-way free agent; accessed July 18, 2026.
- Knicks offer sheet for Moussa Cisse — July 18, 2026 report; Dallas had 48 hours to match.
- Kyrie Irving ruled out for the remainder of 2025-26 — official Dallas medical decision, February 18, 2026.
- Dallas says the extended rehab runway should make Irving ready for 2026-27 — team report, February 20, 2026; treated as optimistic expectation, not clearance.
- Dereck Lively II not cleared to run — June 26, 2026 report relaying Christian Clark's direct update; accessed July 18, 2026.
- Lively's December foot surgery background — official Dallas report, December 10, 2025.
- NBA injury report — official March 18, 2026 listing of Aldama's right-knee surgery recovery.
- Santi Aldama 2025-26 line — 43-game statistical baseline; accessed July 18, 2026.
- Marcus Sasser 2025-26 Pistons game notes — official 38-game statistical line and right-hip absences; accessed July 18, 2026.
- Dallas 2025-26 game notes — official player statistical baselines and transaction history; accessed July 18, 2026.
- Sergio De Larrea NBA draft profile — official international profile and 2025-26 baseline; accessed July 18, 2026.
- Tarik Biberović NBA-transition report — July 10, 2026; includes 2025-26 EuroLeague and Turkish-league shooting lines.
- Athlon early 2026-27 fantasy risers — March 23, 2026; analyst opinion labeling Flagg a top-20 projection.
- SI early 2026-27 top 50 — June 4, 2026; Flagg No. 27 and Irving No. 34; broad points-style list, not a rigorous nine-category model.
- FantasyPros visible Flagg expert ranks — accessed July 18, 2026; visible ranks ranged from No. 9 to No. 46 and may mix update dates/methods.
- Early industry mock discussion — July 9, 2026 observation of Flagg selected at No. 16; one mock, not market-wide ADP.
Open questions
- Will Irving complete unrestricted five-on-five and preseason games, and will Dallas manage back-to-backs?
- When does Lively progress from walking to running, contact, full practice, and game clearance?
- Is Aldama fully cleared from March right-knee arthroscopy before camp?
- Which of Washington, Gafford, Thompson, or Martin remains after the final roster-consolidation move?
- Does Biberović's shooting translate against NBA closeouts quickly enough to displace Thompson?
- Can Flagg raise three-point volume and percentage without sacrificing rim pressure or defensive events?
- Which guard receives the first non-Irving minutes now that Nembhard is gone: Sasser's pull-up scoring or De Larrea's development?
- Does Risacher's arrival accelerate a Thompson trade or buyout, and does Dallas exercise Risacher's $17.4M 2027-28 option?
- Does Dallas match Cisse's Knicks offer sheet by the July 20 deadline?