Research cutoff: July 18, 2026. All ranks and statistics below are projections, not reported facts, unless a source is named.
Team snapshot
- Base outcome: 31 wins; plausible range 24-39. Chicago went 31-51 in 2025-26 while scoring 116.3 and allowing 121.5 points per game; its official season review also records 28.5 assists per game. NBA roster/team page · Bulls 2025-26 season review
- Identity: continue to run through Josh Giddey, attack in transition, and use the Wilson/Buzelis/Claxton length to improve a defense that finished 28th in opponent points per game. New executive Bryson Graham explicitly described size, length, athleticism, and physicality as the roster vision; the draft then added Wilson and Swain to that template. Bulls introduction, May 4, 2026 · AP/Yahoo draft report, June 24, 2026
- Coach: Tiago Splitter replaced Billy Donovan on June 16. Splitter inherited Portland in 2025-26 and went 42-40; his previous teams emphasized pace, development, ball movement, and defensive accountability, but a new scheme makes the early rotation less certain. Bulls announcement, June 16, 2026 · El País profile, June 16, 2026
- Fantasy environment: pace and passing should support counting stats. The constraint is half-court spacing: Claxton does not stretch the floor, Wilson's jumper is developing, and Giddey's volume efficiency remains merely average.
Official roster and working depth chart
The official NBA roster lists the following 16 players as of the cutoff. Awaka and Sellers are on two-way contracts. NBA roster · G League two-way announcement, July 3, 2026
| Position | Starter | Second unit | Deep/situational |
|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Josh Giddey | Tre Jones | Rob Dillingham |
| SG | Norman Powell | Dailyn Swain | Isaac Okoro · Jaylin Sellers |
| SF | Matas Buzelis | Leonard Miller | Noa Essengue · Patrick Williams |
| PF | Caleb Wilson | Noa Essengue | Jalen Smith · Patrick Williams · Tobe Awaka |
| C | Nic Claxton | Zach Collins | Jalen Smith · Tobe Awaka |
The projected starters match Elias Schuster's July 2 depth-chart analysis: Giddey, Powell, Buzelis, Wilson, and Claxton. He also projected Jones as sixth man and Swain for meaningful bench time while identifying the same crowded reserve battles. That is an attributed forecast, not a team announcement. Sports Illustrated, July 2, 2026
CHGO's July 9 video podcast independently centered the same live questions: Collins versus Smith, whether Essengue reaches the rotation, and which of Jones, Okoro, Williams, or another holdover loses time after the Powell, Claxton, Wilson, and Swain additions. It is useful local-analysis corroboration, not an official depth chart. CHGO Bulls Podcast, July 9, 2026
Exactly 240 regulation minutes
This is a healthy, neutral-game baseline—not a claim that Splitter will use a 12-man nightly rotation. Fringe players receive zero in the base case; their paths are described below.
| Player | Role | Minutes |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Giddey | Lead guard | 32 |
| Norman Powell | Starting scorer/spacing | 30 |
| Matas Buzelis | Starting scoring forward | 32 |
| Caleb Wilson | Starting two-way rookie | 29 |
| Nic Claxton | Starting center | 28 |
| Tre Jones | Sixth man/second organizer | 24 |
| Dailyn Swain | Reserve connector wing | 17 |
| Zach Collins | Backup center | 11 |
| Noa Essengue | Development forward | 11 |
| Leonard Miller | Energy forward | 8 |
| Jalen Smith | Third big | 7 |
| Isaac Okoro | Matchup defender | 6 |
| Rob Dillingham | Change-of-pace guard | 5 |
| Total | Regulation allocation | 240 |
Correction 2026-07-18: Zach Collins was previously held at zero baseline minutes and listed only as a conditional swap. That is inconsistent with the two-year, $17 million extension Chicago agreed on June 30 — roughly $8.5M per season, the club's second-largest 2026 commitment after Powell — signed specifically to retain a backup center rather than let him test the market. He now carries 11 baseline minutes. The 11 minutes come from Jalen Smith (12 to 7), Noa Essengue (13 to 11), Leonard Miller (10 to 8) and Isaac Okoro (8 to 6); the table still totals 240. Smith takes the largest share of the cut because a recurring right calf strain ended his 2025-26 season in March, while Collins is the player Chicago paid. The gating condition on Collins is toe-surgery clearance, not depth-chart position. NBA.com, July 1, 2026 · CBS, Smith out for season
Conditional swaps: Patrick Williams can displace Okoro or Miller; Tobe Awaka and Jaylin Sellers are two-way depth. If Collins's toe is not cleared for camp, his 11 minutes return to Smith and Essengue. Those changes do not add minutes—they redistribute the same 240.
2026-27 per-game fantasy projections
Nine-category order is FG%, FT%, 3PM, PTS, REB, AST, STL, BLK, TO. “Prior” is 2025-26 NBA GP/MPG; Wilson and Swain use NCAA games/minutes. Sources: Bulls season page, Powell, Claxton, Wilson, and Swain.
| Player | Prior GP/MPG | Proj. GP/Min | FG% | FT% | 3PM | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Giddey | 54/32.1 | 72/32 | .455 | .770 | 2.0 | 17.8 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 3.5 |
| Norman Powell | 58/29.6 | 66/30 | .466 | .828 | 2.7 | 20.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 1.9 |
| Matas Buzelis | 77/29.2 | 75/32 | .465 | .795 | 2.4 | 18.2 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| Caleb Wilson | 24/31.3* | 70/29 | .480 | .715 | 0.8 | 14.4 | 7.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 2.3 |
| Nic Claxton | 69/27.8 | 68/28 | .590 | .625 | 0.0 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Tre Jones | 65/27.0 | 70/24 | .515 | .835 | 0.5 | 11.6 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.2 |
| Dailyn Swain | 36/32.8* | 64/17 | .440 | .790 | 0.6 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Zach Collins | 10/18.4 | 58/11 | .520 | .710 | 0.5 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| Noa Essengue | 2/3.0 | 55/11 | .450 | .730 | 0.4 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| Leonard Miller | 27/23.1 | 50/8 | .515 | .755 | 0.4 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Jalen Smith | 53/20.7 | 58/7 | .485 | .745 | 0.5 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Isaac Okoro | 63/26.9 | 55/6 | .450 | .790 | 0.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Rob Dillingham | 30/21.5 | 44/5 | .415 | .760 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 |
Correction 2026-07-18: Powell was previously projected at 18.8 points and .458 from the field in 30 minutes. That was a roughly 14% cut to his points-per-minute rate with no stated basis, applied to a player moving into more usage, not less: he averaged 21.7 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 2.7 threes on .470/.827 in 58 games at 29.6 minutes for Miami, made his first All-Star team, and cleared 21.0 points per game for the second straight season. Chicago has since shed Vucevic, Coby White, Dosunmu, Huerter and Yabusele and signed no other established veteran scorer. The projection moves to 20.4 points on .466, which still embeds a modest age-33 and role-transition discount relative to his 2025-26 rate rather than assuming it holds outright. The games-played projection stays at 66 — availability, not efficiency, remains the real risk. StatMuse, Powell 2025-26
Conditional-only projections
These players have no baseline rotation minutes. Their rates describe a plausible role if active, not production to add to the 240-minute table.
| Player | Prior GP/MPG | Conditional role | Conditional 9-cat line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Williams | 72/20.5 | 12 MPG reserve forward | .405 / .735 / 0.8 / 4.4 / 1.9 / 0.8 / 0.4 / 0.2 / 0.6 |
| Tobe Awaka | 39/20.8 NCAA | two-way call-up | .560 / .640 / 0.0 / 3.2 / 3.6 / 0.3 / 0.2 / 0.2 / 0.4 |
| Jaylin Sellers | 33/30.0 NCAA | two-way shooting call-up | .435 / .830 / 0.8 / 4.0 / 1.0 / 0.4 / 0.2 / 0.1 / 0.4 |
Draft board by format
These are wide July ranges, not observed ADP.
| Player | 9-cat redraft | Points redraft | Dynasty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Giddey | Pick 35-55; assists/rebounds, FT%/TO drag | Pick 24-38; near-triple-double engine | Top-45 core, ankle risk |
| Matas Buzelis | Pick 45-70; rare wing blocks | Pick 50-75 | Top-55 core; age-21 growth |
| Norman Powell | Pick 65-95; threes/FT%/points | Pick 65-90 | Win-now only at age 33 |
| Caleb Wilson | Pick 75-115; stocks/rebounds with rookie FT/TO risk | Pick 70-105 | Top-five 2026 rookie; top-40 overall upside |
| Nic Claxton | Pick 95-140; punt-FT big | Pick 90-130 | Stable middle-tier center |
| Tre Jones | Pick 135-175; efficient assists/steals | Pick 120-165 | High-floor depth |
| Everyone else | Watch list/stream | Deep-league only | Prospect holds: Swain, Essengue, Miller, Dillingham |
Two dated opinions frame the Wilson market. Amoye Favour projected 13.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.8 stocks with a seventh/eighth-round redraft cost and top-five rookie dynasty status on June 29. Dan Titus ranked Wilson first among the top four 2026 picks for fantasy on July 14 and argued that he could become Chicago's second option behind Giddey. Both are analyst forecasts, not facts. Athlon, June 29, 2026 · Yahoo Fantasy, July 14, 2026
Category map
- Assists: Giddey is the anchor; Jones is a clean secondary source. Chicago ranked seventh in assists in 2025-26.
- Blocks: Buzelis (1.5 in 2025-26), Claxton, and Wilson can make this an above-average team category. Buzelis is the rare forward who materially changes a fantasy block build.
- Rebounds: Giddey plus Wilson/Claxton creates strong positional rebounding. Smith and Awaka add depth.
- Threes/FT%/points: Powell supplies veteran scoring and percentage stability. Buzelis is the next-best volume shooter.
- Efficiency hazards: Claxton's .616 FT% in 2025-26 makes him build-dependent; Wilson shot .713 in college; Giddey and the young forwards can add turnovers.
Role battles, health, and transaction watch
- Backup center — Collins vs. Smith. Smith's spacing and rebounding earned 20.7 MPG last year, but a right calf strain first suffered on January 29 recurred repeatedly and Chicago shut him down for the remainder of the season in March. Collins was limited to 10 games by right-toe surgery in February, then agreed to a two-year, $17 million extension on June 30 rather than reaching free agency. This model now gives Collins the edge on the strength of that commitment; the open question is toe clearance, not depth-chart standing. NBA.com, July 1, 2026 · CBS, Smith out for season
- Reserve wing — Swain vs. Okoro vs. Dillingham. Draft capital favors Swain, but his first Summer League was poor while Chicago tested him at point guard; he then missed the July 17 finale with right-wrist soreness. The report said there was no expectation of a training-camp limitation. Update 2026-07-19: the closing Vegas ledger was 4.3 points and 5.2 turnovers per game on 4-of-31 shooting (0-of-7 from three) across four games — the worst statistical Summer League of any 2026 first-rounder — while Caleb Wilson finished at 23.5 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks on 41.9% from three (7.8 attempts). This widens the gap between the two rookies' opening-night claims without changing Swain's draft-capital case. HoopsRumors Bulls Notes, 2026-07-19 · Bulls recap, July 15, 2026 · RotoWire/CBS, July 17, 2026
- Development forwards — Essengue vs. Miller vs. Williams. Essengue lost nearly all of 2025-26 to left-shoulder surgery and missed the July 17 Summer League finale with a thumb issue. Miller produced 11.7 points and 5.8 rebounds in 23.1 minutes after arriving. Williams shot 37.2% in a sharply reduced role. This is the least stable branch of the depth chart. Bulls Essengue medical update, December 6, 2025 · CBS, July 17, 2026
- Giddey's ankle. He underwent right-ankle arthroscopy on May 13 after hamstring and ankle trouble limited him to 54 games; Chicago expected him ready for training camp. Availability—not role—is his central totals risk. NBA.com, May 13, 2026
- Claxton's finger. Public fantasy injury lists still carried a finger flag in mid-July. Treat him as tentatively available but re-check camp participation. CBS Bulls injuries, July 17, 2026
- Wilson's hands. A fractured left hand and then a broken right thumb ended his college season, but he was cleared in time to play four Summer League games. The history raises durability uncertainty without constituting a current restriction. NBA.com, March 7, 2026 · NBA Summer League debut, July 10, 2026
Transactions that reset the fantasy hierarchy
- Chicago drafted Caleb Wilson fourth and Dailyn Swain fifteenth on June 23. NBA draft profile · Bulls Swain release
- Chicago acquired Nic Claxton in a four-team trade finalized July 10. Bulls release
- Chicago signed All-Star Norman Powell to a reported two-year, $45 million deal, making him the likely starting shooting guard. NBA.com, July 11, 2026
- Chicago re-signed Zach Collins on a two-year, $17 million extension agreed June 30, keeping him under contract rather than letting him reach free agency. NBA.com, July 1, 2026
The February 2026 deadline teardown. The single most important input to the 2026-27 projections is not an addition but a subtraction: Chicago moved four impending free agents in separate deals and netted nine second-round picks, no firsts.
- Nikola Vucevic to Boston with a future second, for Anfernee Simons and a 2026 second. Vucevic was the starting center and averaged roughly 16 points per game for Chicago before the deal.
- Coby White to Charlotte on February 4, alongside Mike Conley, for Collin Sexton and Ousmane Dieng. White had been the team's leading scorer and re-signed with the Hornets on a three-year, $74 million deal on June 25 — he is not coming back.
- Kevin Huerter in a three-team deal that returned Jaden Ivey from Detroit and Conley from Minnesota. Ivey was waived on March 31, so that branch produced nothing durable.
- Ayo Dosunmu and Julian Phillips to Minnesota on February 5 for Rob Dillingham, Leonard Miller and four second-round picks. This is the only deadline trade that returned rotation players Chicago still holds.
- Dalen Terry went to New York for Guerschon Yabusele; Dieng was later flipped in a three-team deal for Nick Richards.
NBC Chicago deadline roundup · Hoops Rumors offseason preview, June 2026 · AP, February 5, 2026 · NBA.com, June 25, 2026
Yabusele's exit compounds it. Guerschon Yabusele started 19 of 26 games for Chicago after arriving and averaged 10.0 points and 5.7 rebounds. On July 7 he signed a three-year deal with Panathinaikos rather than returning to the NBA, removing the interim starting power forward from the board. Hoops Rumors, July 7, 2026
Why it matters for fantasy. Vucevic, White, Dosunmu, Huerter and Yabusele were, between them, the bulk of Chicago's non-Giddey shot volume in 2025-26. None are on the roster. Powell is the only established veteran scorer brought in to replace them, which is the structural reason the usage projections for Powell, Matas Buzelis and Caleb Wilson sit above their prior-season rates rather than at them.
Floor and ceiling team outcomes
- Floor — 24-27 wins: Giddey's ankle lingers, Powell shows age decline, the rookie shooting is not ready, and the deep forward logjam produces unstable roles. This version remains fast but inefficient and again lives in the bottom five defensively.
- Base — 29-33 wins: Giddey/Buzelis improve modestly, Wilson is productive but uneven, Claxton repairs some rim defense, and Powell closes games. Fantasy output is better than the win total because pace remains high.
- Ceiling — 36-39 wins: Wilson is immediately a two-way impact starter, Buzelis sustains post-deadline usage with better efficiency, Giddey plays 70-plus games, and Splitter turns the length into an average defense. That is a play-in ceiling, not a title-contending forecast.
Evidence ledger
- Official facts: current roster, coach, transactions, contract announcements, and medical updates come from NBA/Bulls/G League releases wherever available.
- Statistics: Basketball-Reference and College Basketball Reference provide the 2025-26 baselines; the Bulls season-review PDF corroborates the main Chicago lines.
- Analyst opinion: Sports Illustrated, Yahoo Fantasy, and Athlon views are attributed and dated. They do not override official facts.
- Community signal: July Bulls Reddit discussion broadly anticipated the same starters but debated Swain/Essengue readiness; it is useful only as sentiment, not projection evidence. Rotation thread, July 1, 2026 · Summer League development thread, July 15, 2026
Open questions
- Will Splitter keep a 10-12-player development rotation or consolidate around veterans early?
- Does Collins or Smith become the permanent backup center, and which forward loses minutes when that player is used at the four?
- Are Giddey, Claxton, and Buzelis fully unrestricted when training camp opens?
- Does Chicago still use its remaining roster flexibility before camp?
- Public July ADP is too sparse to distinguish market rank from analyst rank; all draft ranges need an August refresh.