Snapshot — 2026-07-18
- Coach: Micah Nori, hired June 23, 2026. This is his first NBA head-coaching season. Trail Blazers, 2026-06-23
- 2025-26 result: 42-40, seventh seed after the play-in, then a 1-4 first-round loss to San Antonio. Portland scored 115.5 and allowed 115.8 points per game. NBA team page, accessed 2026-07-18
- Transformative move: Portland acquired Ja Morant for Jerami Grant and Kris Murray on June 29. Morant played only 20 games in 2025-26 and only 79 over the prior three seasons. NBA/AP, updated 2026-06-30
- Frontcourt continuity: Robert Williams III re-signed June 30 after his healthiest season since 2021-22; Portland added Branden Carlson July 1 and claimed Micah Potter July 10. Trail Blazers, 2026-06-30 · Trail Blazers, 2026-07-01 · Trail Blazers, 2026-07-10
- Departures — what actually left: the desk previously named only Grant and Murray. The full 2026 offseason subtraction is Jerami Grant (57 GP, 29.7 MPG, 18.6 PPG) and Kris Murray (57 GP, 23.4 MPG, 5.8 PPG) to Memphis in the Morant trade; Caleb Love (49 GP, 20.7 MPG, 10.4 PPG), a two-way Portland did not convert after acquiring Morant, to Philadelphia on a two-way in early July; and the two unsigned UFAs Matisse Thybulle (30 GP, 16.0 MPG) and Blake Wesley (31 GP, 11.6 MPG). That is roughly 4,900 vacated player-minutes and about 45 vacated points per game. Three further 2025-26 names are also gone but were subtracted during last season and are already absorbed in the 2025-26 baseline: Duop Reath (traded to Atlanta February 1 with two second-round picks for Vít Krejčí after right-foot stress-fracture surgery), Rayan Rupert (waived in February when Sidy Cissoko was converted; later signed a two-way with Philadelphia) and Javonte Cooke (waived in March). Blazer's Edge — Love to Philadelphia, 2026-07 · Hoops Rumors — Krejčí/Reath trade, 2026-02
- No 2026 draft class: Portland made no selection in the 2026 draft. Its first-rounder finally conveyed to Chicago — the long-deferred, lottery-protected obligation from the 2021 Larry Nance Jr. trade — precisely because Portland made the playoffs. There is consequently no pick to protect and no tanking incentive, which supports normal March/April usage for Avdija, Clingan and Camara during fantasy-playoff weeks. KGW, 2026-06
- Core fantasy signal: Dynatyze's July 18 current-season board ranks Avdija No. 23 and Clingan No. 46; Hashtag Basketball's July 2 dynasty board ranks them No. 31 and No. 46. Dynatyze, updated 2026-07-18 · Hashtag Basketball, updated 2026-07-02
Roster verification
The official NBA team page listed the following 18 players on July 18. TW denotes the official two-way indicator. UFA hold means the NBA page still displays the player, but his prior contract expired; he is not treated as part of the base 240-minute forecast.
| Player | Pos. | Roster/contract reading | Projection treatment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ja Morant | G | Standard; acquired 2026-06-29 | Starter |
| Damian Lillard | G | Standard; signed 2025-07-19 | Starter, post-Achilles cap |
| Deni Avdija | F | Standard | Starter / primary forward creator |
| Toumani Camara | F | Standard | Starter / defensive closer |
| Donovan Clingan | C | Standard | Starter |
| Shaedon Sharpe | G | Standard | Sixth-man scorer |
| Jrue Holiday | G | Standard | Multi-position closer |
| Scoot Henderson | G | Standard | Crowded reserve creator |
| Robert Williams III | C-F | Standard; extended 2026-06-30 | Backup C, managed workload |
| Vít Krejčí | G | Standard | Spacing wing depth |
| Sidy Cissoko | G-F | Standard, 2026-27 non-guaranteed | Fringe rotation |
| Yang Hansen | C | Standard | Developmental C |
| Micah Potter | C-F | Standard; waiver claim 2026-07-10 | Emergency stretch big |
| Branden Carlson | C | Standard; signed 2026-07-01 | Emergency stretch big |
| Jayson Kent | F | TW | G League / call-up |
| Chris Youngblood | G | TW | G League / call-up |
| Matisse Thybulle | G-F | UFA hold; official page still lists him | Zero unless re-signed |
| Blake Wesley | G | UFA hold; one-year 2025-26 deal expired | Zero unless re-signed |
Roster evidence: official NBA roster, accessed 2026-07-18. Kent and Youngblood signed two-way deals March 3. NBA G League official release, 2026-03-04. Thybulle's three-year contract ended in 2026 and Wesley's was a fully guaranteed one-year 2025-26 deal. Spotrac — Thybulle, accessed 2026-07-18 · Rose Garden Report — Wesley, 2025-07-22. The NBA page is therefore a useful identity source but not, by itself, proof that either UFA has re-signed.
Projected depth chart
| Position | First | Second | Contingencies |
|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Ja Morant | Scoot Henderson | Damian Lillard, Jrue Holiday |
| SG | Damian Lillard | Shaedon Sharpe | Holiday, Henderson |
| SF | Deni Avdija | Sharpe / Holiday | Vít Krejčí, Sidy Cissoko |
| PF | Toumani Camara | Avdija / Holiday | Krejčí, Cissoko |
| C | Donovan Clingan | Robert Williams III | Yang Hansen, Branden Carlson, Micah Potter |
Chris Haynes reported that Portland envisions a Lillard-Morant starting backcourt with Avdija on the wing; it is a sourced plan, not a guarantee through camp. Haynes report relayed by r/NBA, 2026-06-29. The forecast keeps Camara and Clingan beside that trio because their defense is structurally necessary.
Exact healthy-night minute allocation
This is the median regulation rotation, not an assertion that every player will appear in every game. It totals exactly 240.
| Player | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja Morant | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 |
| Damian Lillard | 4 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 |
| Deni Avdija | 0 | 0 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 33 |
| Toumani Camara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 2 | 31 |
| Donovan Clingan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 29 |
| Shaedon Sharpe | 0 | 15 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 25 |
| Jrue Holiday | 0 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 20 |
| Scoot Henderson | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| Robert Williams III | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 15 |
| Vít Krejčí | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| Sidy Cissoko | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Yang Hansen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| All others | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Position total | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 240 |
The small-ball Camara-at-center minutes are a bookkeeping representation of switching/closing units, not a proposed regular matchup against traditional centers. Injury absences create Carlson/Potter/Yang minutes and elevate Kent/Youngblood, but do not alter the healthy-night sum.
2026-27 player projections
These are Rome desk medians as of July 18, not scraped vendor projections. Percentages are per-game 9-category inputs; GP is an availability forecast. The final two columns express likely 12-team value bands.
| Player | GP | MPG | FG% | FT% | 3PM | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | Points value | Dynasty value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija | 70 | 33.0 | .468 | .805 | 1.9 | 21.4 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 3.2 | Top 35-45 | Top 30-40 |
| Donovan Clingan | 72 | 29.0 | .530 | .690 | 1.0 | 13.0 | 11.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 1.3 | Top 55-75 | Top 40-55 |
| Ja Morant | 60 | 31.0 | .455 | .790 | 1.2 | 21.8 | 3.7 | 7.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 3.2 | Top 40-55 | Top 65-95 |
| Damian Lillard | 58 | 29.0 | .430 | .895 | 3.1 | 20.2 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 2.7 | Top 50-70 | Top 140-190 |
| Toumani Camara | 76 | 31.0 | .445 | .720 | 2.2 | 12.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 1.6 | Top 100-130 | Top 90-120 |
| Shaedon Sharpe | 64 | 29.0 | .450 | .800 | 2.1 | 19.2 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 2.4 | Top 60-85 | Top 70-100 |
| Jrue Holiday | 62 | 23.0 | .455 | .830 | 1.9 | 12.0 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 2.0 | Top 95-125 | Top 150+ |
| Scoot Henderson | 58 | 21.0 | .420 | .810 | 1.3 | 12.2 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 2.4 | Top 105-140 | Top 90-125 |
| Robert Williams III | 52 | 17.0 | .700 | .620 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | Top 125-160 | Top 130-170 |
| Vít Krejčí | 58 | 12.0 | .420 | .750 | 0.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 200+ | 220+ |
| Sidy Cissoko | 55 | 10.0 | .420 | .660 | 0.4 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 260+ | 180-230 |
| Yang Hansen | 40 | 7.0 | .400 | .750 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 290+ | 140-190 |
| Branden Carlson | 35 | 9.0 | .525 | .650 | 0.6 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 230+ | 220+ |
| Micah Potter | 30 | 8.0 | .440 | .760 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 250+ | 250+ |
| Jayson Kent | 20 | 7.0 | .520 | .750 | 0.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 300+ | 230+ |
| Chris Youngblood | 18 | 6.0 | .410 | .800 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 300+ | 230+ |
| Matisse Thybulle | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | UFA | 180-230 if signed |
| Blake Wesley | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | UFA | 250+ if signed |
Baseline context: Avdija produced 24.2/6.9/6.7 in 33.3 minutes; Clingan 12.1/11.6 with 1.7 blocks in 27.2; Sharpe 20.8 points in 29.4; Camara played all 82 games; Portland's guard and center baselines are available on ESPN's 2025-26 team statistics page. The downward usage adjustments are caused by Morant and Lillard entering a team that already had several creators.
Season-minutes reconciliation
A team must distribute 82 x 240 = 19,680 player-minutes, before overtime. Summing GP x MPG across the sixteen projected players above gives 18,009, leaving a residual of 1,671 minutes (8.5%). That residual is deliberate and is assigned to roster spots Portland has not yet filled: one open standard spot, an open third two-way, the full $15.1M mid-level and the $5.5M bi-annual exception, plus the in-season hardship and 10-day signings every team makes. It is not an accounting gap.
Two tables, two different questions, and they should not match. The 240-minute table above is a healthy-night median — what the rotation looks like when everyone is available. The MPG column here is a season average that already absorbs absences, which is why every reserve's season figure runs above his healthy-night figure while the five projected starters sit at theirs (their own missed games and rest offset the uptick). The largest healthy-night-to-season gap is Cissoko's, 3 to 10; it is justified by his 2025-26 workload of 75 games at 19.1 MPG and by the injury base rate in front of him, not by any claim on the healthy rotation.
Correction 2026-07-18: the reserve minute and counting-stat projections in the table above were raised, and this reconciliation added. The previous version summed to 15,619 of 19,680 season minutes — a fifth of the season assigned to nobody — because the desk's own aggressive availability forecasts (Morant 60 GP, Lillard 58, Henderson 58, Sharpe 64, Holiday 62, Williams 52) freed minutes that were never redistributed, which systematically under-projected the entire bench. The largest single revisions: Sharpe 25.0 to 29.0 MPG, Henderson 16.0 to 21.0, Holiday 20.0 to 23.0, Krejčí 6.0 to 12.0, Cissoko 3.0 to 10.0. Sharpe's is reinforced by contract evidence — Portland is paying him $20.1M in 2026-27 on a fresh four-year extension, which is not what a team pays a 25-minute sixth man. Spotrac — Sharpe contract, accessed 2026-07-18
Fantasy interpretation
Category leagues
- Safest targets: Avdija's balanced volume and Clingan's rebounds/blocks survive almost any lineup. Their prices still need discipline: Avdija's assists and free-throw attempts should fall with two new lead guards, while Clingan's .690 FT projection can hurt at volume.
- Best specialist: Williams can return top-100 per-game value in a punt-FT build if he gets 18 minutes, but the extension did not erase the workload-management logic.
- Steals streamers: Camara and Thybulle, if Thybulle actually signs. Camara is far safer because his minutes solve Portland's defensive problem.
- Avoid paying for last year's box score: Sharpe, Holiday and Henderson all lose clean on-ball pathways. Sharpe is the most likely to overcome that through scoring; Scoot is the most role-sensitive. Correction 2026-07-18: all three were nonetheless raised in the projection table. The logjam is real at the top of the rotation but was overstated below it — Caleb Love's 20.7 minutes left with him, and the desk's own availability forecasts for Morant, Lillard and Williams free minutes that have to land somewhere.
Points leagues
Morant benefits most because inefficient percentages and turnovers are less punitive. Avdija remains a strong multi-stat option but has a lower ceiling than his 2025-26 line. Lillard's threes and assists support a top-70 median, yet games played and ramp-up risk are material. Clingan is format-dependent: double-double bonuses can push him above the listed band.
Dynasty
Avdija and Clingan are the two foundational assets. Sharpe remains a plausible buy if a manager is reacting only to the guard crowd; his long-term value could rise sharply after Portland's veteran contracts age out. He is also cheaper to hold and costlier to acquire than the guard-logjam framing implies: the four-year, $90M extension runs through 2029-30, so there is no contract-year overhang and no forced decision, and Portland has priced him as a long-term piece rather than a trade chip. Correction 2026-07-18: this paragraph previously treated Sharpe as a pending extension-or-trade question; he signed the extension in October 2025. ESPN, 2025-10 Scoot is a distressed asset rather than a clean buy: age 22 helps, but Portland just traded for a 26-year-old point guard and publicly signaled a Lillard-Morant backcourt. Hansen is a stash, not a 2026-27 contributor.
Analyst and market cross-check
- NBC's post-trade fantasy analysis independently reaches the same role hierarchy: Morant carries known availability risk, Henderson takes the largest value hit, Avdija loses on-ball work, and Clingan's rim protection becomes more important beside Lillard and Morant. NBC Sports Fantasy, 2026-07
- Yahoo characterizes the deal as creating more fantasy problems than it solves because Portland already had Lillard, Henderson, Sharpe, Holiday and Avdija competing for creation. Yahoo Fantasy, 2026-06-29
- The official NBA team page's fantasy feed calls Henderson difficult to rank until the backcourt plan becomes clearer. NBA team page, fantasy update 2026-07-01
- Local reporting relayed in the NBA community says Portland regards Clingan as essentially untouchable because his rim protection is central to making the small backcourt work. That is a sourced team-value signal, not an official no-trade promise. Jason Quick report relayed by r/NBA, 2026-06-30
- July fantasy-community sentiment is materially more cautious than the projection vendors: commenters generally treat Avdija and Clingan as the safe pieces and the guards as price-dependent volatility. r/fantasybball, 2026-07-09. This is sentiment evidence only.
Role battles and decision points
- Who closes? Avdija and Clingan are the median locks. Camara's defense should beat Sharpe's scoring most nights, leaving Morant, Lillard and Holiday competing for two perimeter spots.
- Can two small, weak point-of-attack defenders start together? The stated Lillard-Morant plan requires Camara and Clingan. If the defense collapses, Holiday or Sharpe could start and one star could lead the second unit.
- Where does Scoot play? He made his 2025-26 debut only on February 6 after a torn hamstring, then showed playoff flashes. NBA/AP, 2026-02-07. A trade is the clearest path to standard-league relevance. Update 2026-07-19: Nori told the Rose Garden Report he intends to "create space for him" to attack downhill and use him off ball beside the veteran guards ("they're all willing passers"), and said he will downsize lineups relative to his Minnesota teams — including Jrue Holiday at the four in some matchups with Robert Williams and Donovan Clingan as the primary bigs and Toumani Camara for small looks. Coach intent keeps Henderson in the rotation plan but does not add minutes. HoopsRumors Blazers Notes, 2026-07-19
- How aggressively is Lillard managed? He turns 36 entering his first season after a left Achilles rupture. A 58-game, 29-minute median already assumes a successful return; back-to-backs and early-season caps remain likely.
- Which extra centers survive camp? Clingan and Williams are secure. Hansen is a recent first-round developmental investment; Carlson has a new one-year deal; Potter was just claimed. At least one may be inactive most nights.
- Do Thybulle or Wesley return? Neither is included in 240 minutes until an official transaction occurs.
Team outcome range
| Scenario | Record range | Basketball result | Fantasy consequence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor | 34-48 to 38-44 | Guard injuries/defense overwhelm depth; lottery/play-in edge | Avdija regains usage, Sharpe/Scoot gain late-season runway |
| Median | 43-39 to 46-36 | Play-in team with a chance at the No. 6 seed | Stable Clingan/Avdija; frustrating guard rotation |
| Ceiling | 49-33 to 52-30 | Top-five West seed if Morant and Lillard stay healthy | Morant approaches top-35 points value; role players remain capped |
The median is only a modest improvement on 42-40 because Portland added offensive talent but also added availability risk, removed roughly 4,900 minutes and 45 points per game in departures — Grant's frontcourt scoring above all — and changed coaches. Nori's first task is making the stated starting five defensively viable.
Monitoring checklist
- Official 2026-27 schedule release and fantasy-playoff week density.
- Lillard clearance, camp participation, back-to-back policy and preseason minutes.
- Morant's elbow status and any league/team discipline developments.
- Starting/closing lineups in Nori's first preseason.
- Trade or extension decisions for Henderson. (Sharpe is not a decision point: he is in year one of a four-year, $90M extension signed in October 2025 and runs through 2029-30.)
- Use of the open standard roster spot, the open third two-way, the $15.1M mid-level and the $5.5M bi-annual exception. Any August or camp signing lands directly on the Krejčí / Cissoko / third-big minutes projected above, and on the 1,671-minute residual.
- Official transactions involving Thybulle, Wesley and the open third two-way slot.
- Camp cuts among Cissoko, Potter and the surplus centers.
Source ledger
- NBA official team page and roster — accessed 2026-07-18.
- NBA/AP: Morant trade — updated 2026-06-30.
- Trail Blazers: Robert Williams III extension — 2026-06-30.
- Trail Blazers: Branden Carlson signing — 2026-07-01.
- Trail Blazers: Micah Potter waiver claim — 2026-07-10.
- NBA G League: Kent and Youngblood two-way contracts — 2026-03-04.
- ESPN Portland 2025-26 statistics — accessed 2026-07-18.
- Dynatyze 2026-27 current-season fantasy board — updated 2026-07-18.
- Hashtag Basketball dynasty rankings — updated 2026-07-02.
- r/fantasybball Portland role-risk discussion — 2026-07-09; treated as market sentiment, not fact.
Open questions
- Is the Lillard-Morant pairing a camp plan or a commitment that survives defensive testing?
- Which guard is traded or de-emphasized before opening night?
- Will Portland formally re-sign Thybulle, and which standard player would lose a spot?
- How much of Avdija's 2025-26 playmaking survives the new backcourt?