2026-27 projection
| GP | MPG | FG% | FT% | 3PM | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 21.0 | .420 | .810 | 1.3 | 12.2 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 2.4 |
Correction 2026-07-18: raised from 16.0 to 21.0 MPG and the counting stats re-derived. The team page's season-minute model had left roughly a fifth of Portland's 19,680 available minutes unassigned; Henderson is one of the players who absorbs them, since he is the only natural backup point guard behind two lead guards forecast for 60 and 58 games. Caleb Love's 20.7 minutes per game also left the roster in July, which thins the guard depth the previous 16-minute median assumed.
Role and evidence
Henderson made his 2025-26 season debut February 6 after a torn left hamstring and finished with 14.2 points, 3.7 assists and 1.9 threes in 24.9 minutes over 30 games. NBA/AP, 2026-02-07 · ESPN, accessed 2026-07-18
Portland then acquired Ja Morant and reportedly plans to start Morant with Damian Lillard. Henderson's healthy-night median is 16 reserve minutes, rising to a 21-minute season average once Morant's and Lillard's forecast absences are counted, with clean point-guard work only when the stars stagger or sit. Hashtag ranks him No. 133 in dynasty and flags the difficulty of evaluating a player returning from that hamstring injury. Hashtag Basketball, updated 2026-07-02
Update 2026-07-19: new head coach Micah Nori, in an interview with Sean Highkin of the Rose Garden Report, committed publicly to keeping Henderson in the plan rather than burying him — "we've got to make sure we create space for him" to attack downhill — and described an off-ball role beside Ja Morant, Jrue Holiday, and Damian Lillard on the theory that "they're all willing passers." Nori also said he plans to downsize lineups relative to his Minnesota work. This is coach intent, not minutes: it supports the 21-minute season average and marginally raises the odds his minutes come as a spot-up/secondary player, which stresses exactly the catch-and-shoot skill his profile lacks. HoopsRumors Blazers Notes, 2026-07-19
Fantasy value
- 9-cat: outside the top 130 in the current role; FG and turnovers remain harmful.
- Points: top 105-140, with a large gain if traded.
- Dynasty: top 100-140; buy only at a discount that prices in role failure.
Range
- Ceiling: trade to a team offering 28 minutes, restoring 14/3/6 and top-90 points value.
- Floor: 12 minutes, inconsistent active status and no standard-league use.
- Swing variables: trade/extension decisions, hamstring explosiveness, shooting and Lillard's workload.
Related: Portland Trail Blazers · Ja Morant · Damian Lillard
Career record
Pre-NBA: Skipped college for the G League Ignite, born February 3, 2004 and reclassified so he could turn pro at 17. Two Ignite seasons: 14.7 points, 4.6 rebounds and 4.8 assists in 31.5 minutes across 10 games in 2021-22 on .460/.250/.778, then 16.5 points, 5.4 rebounds and 6.5 assists in 30.7 minutes across 19 games in 2022-23 on .429/.275/.764. The pattern was set there — downhill force, real playmaking volume, and a jumper that did not reach 28% from three in either year. Draft: 2023, first round, third overall, Portland.
| Season | Age | Team | GP | MPG | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | 3PM | FG% | 3P% | FT% | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 19 | POR | 62 | 28.5 | 14.0 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.4 | .385 | .325 | .819 | 3.4 |
| 2024-25 | 20 | POR | 66 | 26.7 | 12.7 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 1.6 | .419 | .354 | .767 | 2.7 |
| 2025-26 | 21 | POR | 30 | 24.9 | 14.2 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.9 | .418 | .352 | .840 | 2.4 |
| Career | 158 | 27.0 | 13.5 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 1.6 | .404 | .343 | .802 | 2.9 |
Durability: 62 and 66 games in his first two seasons, then 30 in 2025-26. He tore his left hamstring in a workout on September 26, 2025, was ruled out for one to two months, and did not debut until February 6, 2026 — a four-month absence, far past the original timeline. That is the single most important fact in his file: it cost him the season in which he needed to establish himself, and it happened while Portland was restructuring the backcourt around him.
Trajectory: Three seasons and the shape is a scorer whose efficiency is slowly repairing while his playmaking share shrinks — .385 to .419 to .418 from the floor and .325 to .354 to .352 from three, against assists falling from 5.4 to 3.7. The turnover rate has improved every year but is still 2.4 a night in 25 minutes. The 2025-26 sample is genuinely encouraging on a per-minute basis and genuinely small. He is now fourth in Portland's creator hierarchy behind Lillard, Morant and the wings, which is a role, not a development plan. He matters in fantasy if a trade sends him somewhere offering 28-plus minutes as a primary handler, or if either veteran guard misses extended time — the 2023-24 season shows what he produces with that runway. In the current arrangement the field-goal percentage and turnovers make him a points-league asset only.
Career sources: ESPN career stats · StatMuse 2025-26 season averages · Wikipedia
Open questions
- Is Portland committed to Henderson beyond this season?
- Did the hamstring injury permanently reduce his first-step advantage?