Team: Oklahoma City Thunder · PF/C · Age 24 · Standard contract · Base role: 29-minute starting four/five and defensive anchor
Projection card
| GP | MPG | 3PM | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% (M/A) | FT% (M/A) | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 29.0 | 1.4 | 17.6 | 9.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 1.9 | .550 (6.4/11.6) | .800 (3.4/4.3) | 1.6 |
Nine-category: Round 2, with first-round per-game upside if minutes reach 32. ESPN-default points: Round 2-3; blocks score heavily, but the 29-minute cap matters. Dynasty: top-15 cornerstone whose age and category scarcity offset a non-trivial injury history.
Why the line looks like this
Holmgren played 69 games in 2025-26 and averaged 17.1 points, 8.9 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.9 blocks, 1.3 threes and only 1.6 turnovers in 28.9 minutes, shooting 55.7% overall and 79.2% at the line. The projection is nearly a direct carry with modest free-throw and steal regression upward. Oklahoma City's 64-win depth and the presence of Isaiah Hartenstein make a 34-minute regular-season forecast unnecessary.
Market disagreement is mostly draft-cost language. Dynatyze displayed Holmgren at No. 14 on July 18; Hashtag's July 2 dynasty list also ranked him No. 14; SI placed him 17th; ESPN points ranked him 23rd; and NBC's May eight-category mock selected him 22nd. Reddit discussion questioned what changed enough to justify top-15 redraft cost. The answer is not a new role: it is whether 1.9 blocks, nine rebounds, positive FG% and 1.4 threes already warrant that price. Sources: 2025-26 Thunder stats, Dynatyze, Hashtag dynasty, NBC mock, community rank debate.
Category shape
- Elite: blocks and center threes without a percentage sacrifice.
- Strong: rebounds, FG%, FT% for a big and low turnovers.
- Costs: assists and merely good scoring volume; center depth can suppress minutes.
- Build fit: ideal with a high-assist guard; supports almost any punt except a strategy that deliberately ignores blocks.
Floor, base, ceiling
- Floor: back/hip issues or another lower-body absence produces 52-58 games and Hartenstein/Mara/Sorber absorb center work.
- Base: 67 games at 29 minutes and roughly 18-9 with 1.9 blocks.
- Ceiling: a healthy 74-game season at 32 minutes yields 20 points, 10 rebounds, two-plus blocks and a top-eight 9-cat line.
Risk and confidence
| Component | Confidence | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Roster | Very high | Five-year extension and foundational role |
| Minutes | Medium-high | Stable starter, but team depth holds regular-season workload below star norms |
| Rates | High | Three NBA seasons validate shooting/rim-protection shape |
| Availability | Medium | 69 games last year, but prior foot/pelvic and recent back/hip interruptions widen range |
Career record
Pre-NBA: Gonzaga, one season (2021-22). 32 games, 26.9 minutes, 14.1 points, 9.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 3.7 blocks on .607 from the field, .390 from three, .717 at the line — a shooting line almost no freshman big has matched, and the block rate that defined his NBA projection. WCC Defensive Player of the Year, WCC Newcomer of the Year, first-team All-WCC, consensus second-team All-American. Also FIBA Under-19 World Cup MVP in 2021. Draft: 2022, first round, second overall, Oklahoma City Thunder. Not traded.
| Season | Age | Team | GP | MPG | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | 3PM | FG% | FT% | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 20 | OKC | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023-24 | 21 | OKC | 82 | 29.4 | 16.5 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | .530 | .793 | 1.6 |
| 2024-25 | 22 | OKC | 32 | 27.4 | 15.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | .490 | .754 | 1.8 |
| 2025-26 | 23 | OKC | 69 | 28.9 | 17.1 | 8.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 1.3 | .557 | .792 | 1.6 |
| Career | 183 | 28.9 | 16.5 | 8.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 | .534 | .785 | 1.6 |
2022-23 is a genuine zero: he was drafted in June 2022 and lost the entire rookie season to a Lisfranc injury before playing a regular-season minute.
Fantasy history: Season-end 9-category ranks from Basketball Monster, Hashtag, or the ESPN Player Rater were not retrievable for any of his three seasons, so no specific finishes are asserted. What the verified table establishes is the category shape and its unusual cleanliness: he is a positive in blocks, rebounds, field-goal percentage, free-throw percentage, and threes simultaneously, with a turnover rate (1.6 per game across three seasons) that is a genuine asset rather than a neutral. Only assists and raw scoring volume cost anything. That five-positive-plus-turnovers profile is why he prices above what his points and rebounds alone would suggest. Points leagues rate him lower than categories, because the low turnovers and the percentage edge carry almost no weight there while the sub-18-point scoring and 29-minute cap do.
Durability: 0, 82, 32, 69. Two of four seasons were destroyed by structural injuries and one was perfect. 2022-23: a Lisfranc injury to the right foot sustained in a Pro-Am game in August 2022, costing the entire season. 2023-24: 82 games, no absences. 2024-25: a right iliac wing fracture (pelvis) sustained 10 November 2024, out until 7 February 2025, 50 games lost to one impact injury. 2025-26: 13 games missed to an accumulation of minor problems rather than one event — a dislocated thumb against Atlanta on 26 October 2025, lower-back tightness that cost games on 28 October and 5 November, a hip contusion in March 2026, plus scheduled rest on a 64-win team with nothing to play for late. The 2025-26 pattern is the encouraging one: many small absences beat one catastrophic one, and none of them recurred.
Trajectory: Three seasons in, the minutes have never moved — 29.4, 27.4, 28.9 — which is the defining structural fact and a coaching choice, not an injury artifact, since it held in the 82-game season too. Real improvement has therefore happened per-minute rather than through volume: 20.2, 19.7, then 21.3 points per 36, and rebounds climbing steadily from 9.7 to 10.5 to 11.1 per 36. The 2025-26 efficiency spike from .490 to .557 is not a fluke but it is partly a shot-diet change, since three-point makes fell to 1.3 on a lower rate while the interior scoring rose; that trade is efficiency-positive and category-negative if it continues. The one genuine warning is blocks: 2.8, 2.9, then 2.4 per 36, his first real dip, which alongside Hartenstein's presence and heavier four minutes deserves watching rather than dismissing. At 24 he is still pre-peak and the aging curve argues for growth, so the 2026-27 case rests almost entirely on whether Daigneault ever lets him past 30 minutes — the per-minute player is already a first-round asset, the 29-minute version is a second-round one.
Career sources: ESPN career stats · Wikipedia (college, draft, injuries) · ESPN — back tightness absence · Heavy — injury history
Open questions
- Does Daigneault raise his usage after Jalen Williams' injury-marred season?
- Can he stay near 56% FG if three-point attempts increase?
- Will matchup-driven center minutes against San Antonio push him above the 29-minute base?