2026-27 projection
| GP | MPG | FG% | FT% | 3PM | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | 29.0 | .450 | .770 | 2.1 | 16.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.7 |
- 9-cat: 80-125; points: top 80-115; dynasty: 45-105.
- Role: projected opening-night starting shooting guard and multi-position closer for Utah Jazz.
Correction 2026-07-18: previously listed as the first wing off the bench with a path to starting. Published post-signing Jazz projections put Bailey in the opening-night starting five (George / Bailey / Markkanen / Jackson / Nurkić), with Peterson the bench two-guard — Hardy has not started a rookie on opening night at any point in this rebuild. The minute projection is unchanged at 29; the change is the label and the usage that follows it. SI Jazz depth chart - 2025-26 baseline: 72 games, 27.6 minutes, 13.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.9 threes, 0.8 steals, 0.7 blocks, .443 FG, and .750 FT. ESPN Utah stats, accessed 2026-07-18
Fantasy thesis
Bailey's late rookie growth and two-way stat potential create more category upside than his assist rate suggests. Peterson adds a creator who can generate easier shots, but also another high-priority mouth. CBS notes both dynamics. CBS player news, accessed 2026-07-18
No Jazz player has a wider dynasty market split: Hashtag's analyst board ranks Bailey 103rd, while its July 18 crowd ranks him 45th. Treat that as role uncertainty, not a consensus midpoint. Hashtag dynasty, accessed 2026-07-18 · Hashtag crowd, updated 2026-07-18
Ceiling: holds the starting job, reaches 31 minutes, and produces top-65 to top-85. Floor: Peterson takes the job by midseason, and 23-25 minutes with poor free throws and low assists leave him outside the top 140.
Career record
Pre-NBA: Rutgers, one season (2024-25). 30 games, 33.4 minutes, 17.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.3 blocks, 1.0 steals on .460 FG / .346 3P / .692 FT, taking 14.7 field-goal attempts and 4.5 threes a game. Third-team All-Big Ten and Big Ten All-Freshman; his 527 points were the second-most by a Rutgers freshman, behind teammate Dylan Harper. Draft: 2025, first round, 5th overall, Utah Jazz — no draft-night trade, though he slid from a widely projected top-three slot after declining pre-draft workouts for the teams picking ahead of Utah.
| Season | Age | Team | GP | MPG | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | 3PM | FG% | FT% | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19 | UTA | 72 | 27.6 | 13.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.9 | .443 | .750 | 1.5 |
| Career | 72 | 27.6 | 13.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.9 | .443 | .750 | 1.5 |
Fantasy history: 2025-26 was his only season, and no season-end 9-category per-game rank is verifiable from a public source — treat any specific number as an estimate. Pre-season consensus had him near 129th overall, and the raw line (13.8 points, 1.9 threes, 0.8 steals, 0.7 blocks, 1.5 turnovers, .750 FT) is consistent with a finish in that neighborhood or modestly better, dragged by .443 shooting on high volume. He was named All-Rookie Second Team. The points-league shape is materially worse than the category shape: low assists and a small rebound base cap the counting total, while the category build benefits from cheap steals-plus-blocks and non-damaging free throws.
Durability: 2025-26: 72 games played, 61 starts, out of 82. Two identifiable absences drove the ten missed games — a left hip flexor strain suffered in the December 26, 2025 game against Detroit, which cost him seven of the following eight games, and a concussion suffered in the first half against Portland in March 2026 that put him in league protocol. Neither is a structural or recurring-mechanism injury, and 72 games is an ordinary rookie workload rather than a red flag.
Trajectory: The season splits are the whole story: 13.8 points on the full year but 18.3 points, 4.9 rebounds and 2.0 assists across 23 games after the All-Star break, on rising minutes. That is a role and confidence change, not a skill change — Utah widened his usage once the season's competitive stakes disappeared, and the efficiency did not follow it up, which is the normal pattern for a 19-year-old handed volume. The category profile is already functional at a young age (near a steal and a block, roughly two threes, only 1.5 turnovers at real usage), and that combination is what makes him worth rostering before the scoring arrives. The open question is shot diet: .443 from the field and .344 from three on a heavy self-created diet is the efficiency of a player whose talent currently outruns his shot selection. Given his age, the aging curve argues for improvement in all three shooting lines, but a jump to top-75 requires the minutes to reach the high-20s or low-30s permanently — the post-break sample is a preview, not a baseline.
Career sources: ESPN career stats · StatMuse per-season · Wikipedia · Sports-Reference college
Open questions
- Does Bailey start over Nurkic in a small frontcourt?
- Can his free throws and self-created efficiency reach league average?