2026-27 projection
| GP | MPG | FG% | FT% | 3PM | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 21.0 | .475 | .860 | 1.1 | 10.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.8 |
- Role: second-unit power forward in the base case; the named alternative is that he wins the start.
- 9-cat: 130-180.
- Points: top 150-200.
- Dynasty: 180-260; Hashtag expert No. 234.
Role case
Harris averaged 13.3 points, 5.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.3 threes in 27.7 minutes in 2025-26, with 46.9% shooting, 86.6% free throws and only 1.0 turnover. That efficient, low-mistake profile fits next to San Antonio's high-usage guards and Victor Wembanyama. ESPN stats, accessed 2026-07-18
San Antonio officially added Harris on 2026-07-06 on a fully guaranteed two-year, $30.8M deal with no option year, and reporting had him slated for a role similar to his Detroit one rather than a promotion. NBA signing report, 2026-07-06 · Hoops Rumors, 2026-07-01 Pre-signing lineup analysis identified his size, rebounding and spacing at natural power forward as the missing conventional piece, which remains the case for starting him. L'Equipe, 2026-07-02
The San Antonio Spurs healthy map gives him 21 minutes behind Julian Champagnie, who started 68 games, started the Finals and signed for three years and $45M. Keldon Johnson, Carter Bryant and Harrison Barnes keep the rotation from expanding automatically.
Correction 2026-07-18: this file previously called Harris the projected starting power forward at 24 minutes, following the pre-free-agency L'Equipe framing of the signing. The only post-signing public depth chart has Champagnie starting with Harris backing him up, and Harris's contract is reserve money against Champagnie's. Base case moved to the second unit at 21 minutes; a Harris start remains a live alternative and would restore roughly the old line.
Ceiling and floor
- Ceiling: wins the job in camp, reaches 27-28 minutes and returns top-110 value through efficient 13/5 production and low turnovers.
- Floor: a 18-20-minute veteran platoon produces streamer-level counting stats despite clean percentages.
- Best builds: balanced 9-cat teams protecting percentages and turnovers.
- Dynasty: a short-window contender piece; age and declining volume make rebuilding value modest.
Career record
Pre-NBA: Tennessee, one season (2010-11). He started 33 of 34 games and averaged 15.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.7 steals and 0.9 blocks in 29.2 minutes on .460/.303/.753, making the SEC All-Freshman team. The .303 from three is worth noting against a professional career that settled at .366. Draft: 2011, first round, 19th overall, Charlotte Bobcats, traded to Milwaukee on draft night.
| Season | Age | Team | GP | MPG | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | 3PM | FG% | FT% | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-12 | 19 | MIL | 42 | 11.4 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | .467 | .815 | 0.7 |
| 2012-13 | 20 | MIL/ORL | 55 | 23.6 | 11.0 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | .455 | .752 | 1.2 |
| 2013-14 | 21 | ORL | 61 | 30.3 | 14.6 | 7.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.5 | .464 | .807 | 1.3 |
| 2014-15 | 22 | ORL | 68 | 34.8 | 17.1 | 6.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.3 | .466 | .788 | 1.7 |
| 2015-16 | 23 | ORL/DET | 76 | 33.1 | 14.7 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.1 | .469 | .831 | 1.4 |
| 2016-17 | 24 | DET | 82 | 31.3 | 16.1 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1.3 | .481 | .841 | 1.2 |
| 2017-18 | 25 | DET/LAC | 80 | 33.4 | 18.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 2.3 | .460 | .829 | 1.3 |
| 2018-19 | 26 | LAC/PHI | 82 | 34.7 | 20.0 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.9 | .487 | .866 | 1.8 |
| 2019-20 | 27 | PHI | 72 | 34.3 | 19.6 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.8 | .471 | .806 | 1.4 |
| 2020-21 | 28 | PHI | 62 | 32.5 | 19.5 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.3 | .512 | .892 | 1.7 |
| 2021-22 | 29 | PHI | 73 | 34.8 | 17.2 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.4 | .482 | .842 | 1.6 |
| 2022-23 | 30 | PHI | 74 | 32.9 | 14.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.7 | .501 | .876 | 1.2 |
| 2023-24 | 31 | PHI | 70 | 33.8 | 17.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.3 | .487 | .878 | 1.3 |
| 2024-25 | 32 | DET | 73 | 31.6 | 13.7 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.2 | .477 | .861 | 1.2 |
| 2025-26 | 33 | DET | 63 | 27.7 | 13.3 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 1.3 | .469 | .866 | 1.0 |
| Career | 1033 | 31.4 | 15.9 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.3 | .478 | .838 | 1.4 |
Traded-season splits: 2012-13 was 28 games in Milwaukee (4.9 points in 11.6 minutes) and 27 in Orlando (17.3 points, 8.5 rebounds in 36.1 minutes) after the February deal. 2015-16 was 49 games in Orlando (13.7) and 27 in Detroit (16.6). 2017-18 was 48 in Detroit (18.1) and 32 with the Clippers (19.3) after the Blake Griffin trade. 2018-19 was 55 with the Clippers (20.9, his best scoring stretch) and 27 in Philadelphia (18.2) after the February 2019 trade.
Fantasy history: Precise season-end nine-category ranks are not verifiable from public archives for any season in this file, so no rank is asserted here. The shape is consistent and readable from the box score regardless: from 2018-19 through 2023-24 he was a mid-round category asset whose value came from a positive-to-neutral FG%, a genuinely strong FT% on real attempt volume, and an unusually low turnover rate for a 17-to-20-point scorer, with no elite category anywhere and thin steals and blocks for a forward. The 2024-25 and 2025-26 Detroit seasons moved him out of that band as volume fell. Points-league value has always tracked below the category value at equal minutes, because his percentages and turnover economy are the load-bearing parts and points formats do not price either.
Durability: GP by season: 42, 55, 61, 68, 76, 82, 80, 82, 72, 62, 73, 74, 70, 73, 63. He has cleared 70 games in eight of the last ten seasons and has never had a season lost to a single major injury. The 19 games missed in 2025-26 were multiple separate issues rather than one absence: a right ankle sprain that cost roughly nine games, a left hip sprain that carried a two-week timeline, and a left knee contusion suffered when he exited the Minnesota game. None required surgery. For a player entering his age-34 season this is close to a best-case availability profile, though the number of distinct soft-tissue events in 2025-26 is the first sign of accumulating wear.
Trajectory: The career peaked from 2018-19 through 2021-22 in the 17-to-20-point range at 34-plus minutes, and the decline since has been almost entirely a minutes and volume story rather than a skill story. The rate evidence is clear on this: per-36 scoring was 18.3 in 2023-24, dropped to 15.6 in his first Detroit season, then rebounded to 17.3 in 2025-26 even as his minutes fell to a career-low 27.7, while three-point percentage rose from .345 to .368 and turnovers per-36 stayed at an elite 1.3. He is still shooting and taking care of the ball at his career norms; what has gone is the usage. That distinction matters for San Antonio, because a 24-minute role does not require him to reverse any decline, only to keep doing what he did last season in a smaller window — the efficiency and FT% should hold, and the counting stats will land wherever the minutes do. The realistic 2026-27 read is a low-variance, low-ceiling veteran whose fantasy value is entirely leveraged to whether the Spurs' logjam gives him 24 minutes or 19.
Career sources: Wikipedia — Tobias Harris career statistics · ESPN career stats · StatMuse — Tobias Harris career stats by season · Yahoo Sports — Harris and Duren injury timelines
Open questions
- Does Harris start, close, both, or neither?
- Can he maintain an 86% free-throw rate as his attempts fall?