2026-27 projection
| GP | MPG | FG% | FT% | 3PM | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 31.0 | .515 | .830 | 2.0 | 26.5 | 12.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 2.5 |
- Role: starting center and unquestioned first option for San Antonio Spurs.
- 9-cat: overall 1-3; acceptable at 1.01.
- Points: elite first-round anchor in every mainstream scoring system.
- Dynasty: No. 1 overall, with no meaningful format caveat.
Why the projection works
Wembanyama produced 25.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.0 steal, 3.1 blocks and 1.9 threes in only 29.2 minutes across 64 games in 2025-26. The efficiency jump to 51.2% from the field was the important development: his profile no longer requires managers to tolerate a high-volume FG% weakness. ESPN stats, accessed 2026-07-18
The San Antonio Spurs minute model gives him 31 of 48 center minutes. More is possible in close games, but a Finals team with Luke Kornet and two first-round rookie bigs has little reason to chase a 35-minute regular-season workload.
Ceiling, floor and builds
- Ceiling: 28/13 with 3.5 blocks in 32-33 minutes, producing the clear overall No. 1 season.
- Floor: conservative minutes or 15 missed games; he remains a top-five per-game player because blocks are so far above replacement.
- Best builds: any build. His strong FT% and threes make him unusually friendly to guard-heavy starts; managers need not punt a category to exploit him.
- Risk: availability, not skill. The 2024-25 shoulder DVT is historical context, but he returned for 64 games and a Finals run; no active health restriction was reported as of July 18.
Market evidence
Dan Titus ranked Wembanyama second in an April early first round and said 1.01 was defensible. Hashtag Basketball ranks him dynasty No. 1 and its July crowdsourced market also has him first. NBA/Yahoo, 2026-04-14 · Hashtag dynasty, accessed 2026-07-18 · Hashtag keeper market, updated 2026-07-18
Wembanyama signed a five-year extension through 2031-32 and declined the larger 30% escalator structure, eliminating the only distant contractual uncertainty. NBA/AP, updated 2026-07-12
Career record
Pre-NBA: French professional basketball, three clubs in three seasons, no college. Nanterre 92 (2020-21): 6.8 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.9 blocks in 16.9 minutes over 18 LNB Pro A games on 50.0/36.4/68.4 shooting, Pro A Best Young Player. ASVEL (2021-22): 9.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.8 blocks in 18.5 minutes over 16 games on 60.5/26.0/70.0, Best Young Player again. Metropolitans 92 (2022-23): 21.6 points, 10.4 rebounds, 3.0 blocks in 32.1 minutes over 34 games on 56.1/27.5/82.8, leading Pro A in scoring, rebounds and blocks and becoming the youngest MVP in league history, plus Best Defender, Best Scorer and All-Pro A First Team. Draft: 2023, first round, first overall by San Antonio; not traded.
| Season | Age | Team | GP | MPG | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | 3PM | FG% | FT% | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 20 | SAS | 71 | 29.7 | 21.4 | 10.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 3.6 | 1.8 | .465 | .796 | 3.7 |
| 2024-25 | 21 | SAS | 46 | 33.2 | 24.3 | 11.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 3.8 | 3.1 | .476 | .836 | 3.2 |
| 2025-26 | 22 | SAS | 64 | 29.2 | 25.0 | 11.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 1.9 | .512 | .827 | 2.4 |
| Career | SAS | 181 | 30.4 | 23.4 | 11.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 3.5 | 2.2 | .484 | .817 | 3.1 |
Awards: 2023-24 Rookie of the Year; 2025-26 Defensive Player of the Year, the first unanimous winner of that award and its youngest; 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP, averaging 27.3 points, 10.9 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.4 steals and 2.7 blocks in 37.7 minutes across seven games against Oklahoma City before San Antonio lost the Finals 4-1 to New York.
Fantasy history: 2023-24 and 2024-25 season-end 9-cat ranks are not verifiable from sources I could reach; do not treat any number for those years as confirmed. 2025-26 is partially verifiable: Jokić finished first in 9-cat per-game and finished "comfortably ahead" of both Gilgeous-Alexander and Wembanyama, which places Wembanyama in the 2-3 range without pinning the exact slot. The points-league shape is materially worse than the category shape in every season — 29-30 minutes, sub-26 points and no assist volume cap his raw scoring total, while blocks, which carry his category value, are worth comparatively little in most points systems.
Durability: 71 GP (2023-24), 46 GP (2024-25), 64 GP (2025-26). The 2024-25 season ended in February 2025 with deep vein thrombosis in the right shoulder, a circulatory event rather than a musculoskeletal one, which is why it does not compound into a recurring-injury profile the way a joint or tendon history would. In 2025-26 he missed 12 games in November and December with a strained left calf and further time after a knee injury sustained against New York, on which follow-up MRIs showed no ligament damage; the remaining absences across the 18 he missed are not individually verified. He played 64 regular-season games but still qualified for awards because his appearance in the NBA Cup final counted toward the 65-game threshold even though its stats do not count.
Trajectory: The 2025-26 gain was rate-based, not minutes-based, which is the important distinction. His minutes fell 4.0 from 2024-25 yet his per-36 scoring rose from roughly 26 to roughly 31 and his per-36 rebounding from about 12 to about 14 — he did more per possession on a smaller workload, which is the opposite of the usual young-player pattern where production tracks opportunity. The mechanism is visible in the shot diet: three-point makes fell from 3.1 to 1.9 while field goal percentage rose 3.6 points to .512, meaning San Antonio traded a high-volume, 30-something-percent three-point habit for rim and short-midrange work. Turnovers falling 3.7 to 3.2 to 2.4 is a genuine skill curve, not noise, and it is what converts him from a good category anchor into a clean one. At 22 he is pre-peak with two of the three fantasy risk factors already resolved (efficiency, turnovers), leaving only availability; the block rate declining per-36 each year (4.4 to 4.1 to 3.8) is the one trend to watch, though it likely reflects scheme and foul discipline rather than decline.
Career sources: ESPN career stats · StatMuse season-by-season · Wikipedia — European club career and draft · NBA.com — 2025-26 Defensive Player of the Year · NBA.com — 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP · Yahoo Sports — 2025-26 games missed
Open questions
- Does San Antonio raise him above 31 regular-season minutes after a long playoff run?
- Can the three-point percentage move from 34.9% toward league average without sacrificing rim volume?