Related: Jalen Suggs · Paolo Banchero · Franz Wagner · Jase Richardson
Information cutoff: 2026-07-18.
Projection card
| GP | MPG | FG | FT | 3PM | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 26.0 | .450 (4.7/10.4) | .750 (2.1/2.8) | 1.5 | 13.0 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.9 |
Healthy active-game allocation: 26 minutes. Confidence: medium; role range is wider than the point estimate.
Correction 2026-07-18: allocation raised 25 → 26 minutes. The cut from his 2025-26 workload (64 games, 29.8 minutes, 15.0 points, all career highs) is deliberate — a healthy Wagner compresses the wing rotation — but 25 understated the floor for a player Sports Illustrated names a Sixth Man of the Year candidate, and the team desk previously failed to disclose the baseline at all. Source: SI Magic rotation projection.
2025-26 baseline
Black played 64 games at 29.8 minutes and averaged 15.0 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.7 blocks, 1.6 threes, and 2.0 turnovers. He shot .446 on 12.1 field goals and .732 on 3.6 free throws.
Those minutes were supported by Orlando's injury load, especially Wagner's 34-game season and Suggs's 57. A healthier top four compresses the base to 25 minutes, but the prior production establishes what Black can do when the role opens.
Role and pathway
Black is the first guard off the bench, the primary second-unit initiator, and the leading replacement for Suggs or a missing wing. His size also lets Sweeney use three-guard lineups without becoming tiny. A 25-minute base does not mean a fixed reserve ceiling: he can average 30-plus in any multiweek stretch without Suggs or Wagner.
The tension is closing time. Black's downhill creation and defensive versatility deserve minutes, but Orlando's nominal starters already include three creators and its best shooter. If he cannot improve the team's spacing, some strong real-life performances will still end around 24 minutes.
Category shape
- Strong/interesting: steals, blocks for a guard, points and rebounds when minutes rise.
- Helpful: threes and assists, though neither is elite at the base role.
- Weak: FT percentage on meaningful volume; turnovers can rise with lead duties.
- Neutral: FG percentage has improved enough not to be an automatic punt.
Black's multi-category counting line is more exciting than his z-score profile. The difference matters in 9-cat.
Format and market map
| Format | Base posture |
|---|---|
| 9-cat redraft | Top-110 to top-160; strongest as a bench upside pick |
| H2H points | Aggressive middle-to-late-round target |
| Dynasty categories | Top-75 to top-110 range with starter upside |
| Dynasty points | Clear top-75-ish asset |
ESPN ranked Black 63rd in its April way-too-early points list—above Wagner, Bane, and Suggs. Hashtag's July analyst dynasty board ranked him 88th, nearly identical to Suggs. Yahoo's May exit review argued for an expanded role. These are useful signals, but the points rank assumes counting volume that a healthy roster may not provide every night.
Floor, base, and ceiling
| Scenario | Line of value |
|---|---|
| Floor | 21-23 minutes, under 11 points and three assists, FT remains near .73; waiver-level 9-cat output |
| Base | 25 minutes, 12.4/3.3/3.5 with 1.8 combined stocks and modest shooting improvement |
| Ceiling | 31-plus minutes through role win or injury, 16/5/5 with 1.5 steals; top-75 categories and top-50 points |
Black has one of the widest role-driven distributions on the roster. His fantasy draft price should leave room for the floor rather than pay entirely for the injury-away ceiling.
Development and risk
Age and prior-season growth support another efficiency step, particularly at the line. But projecting .750 is already an improvement from .732, not a solved weakness. Healthy Wagner/Suggs availability is the largest external risk; a Sweeney preference for defense and transition is the largest positive.
Evidence trail
- Basketball-Reference 2025-26 Orlando page — stable statistical baseline.
- Yahoo Orlando fantasy exit interview, 2026-05-04 — role analysis.
- ESPN 2026-27 way-too-early points ranks, 2026-04-14.
- Hashtag Basketball dynasty rankings, updated 2026-07-02.
- Sean Sweeney introductory storylines, 2026-06-18 — coaching philosophy context.
Career record
Pre-NBA: Coppell High School (Texas) through his junior year, then Duncanville for a senior season limited to 15 games by eligibility issues. One season at Arkansas, 2022-23: 36 games, 36 starts, 34.9 minutes, 12.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 2.1 steals on .453 FG, .301 3PT, .705 FT — a defense-and-size profile with no jumper, which is exactly how he entered the league. Draft: 2023, first round, sixth overall, Orlando Magic; no draft-night trade.
| Season | Age | Team | GP | MPG | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | 3PM | FG% | FT% | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 20 | ORL | 69 | 16.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | .466 | .613 | 0.8 |
| 2024-25 | 21 | ORL | 78 | 24.2 | 9.4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.8 | .423 | .761 | 1.8 |
| 2025-26 | 22 | ORL | 64 | 29.8 | 15.0 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 1.6 | .447 | .732 | 2.1 |
| Career | ORL | 211 | 23.5 | 9.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.9 | .441 | .724 | 1.5 |
Fantasy history: Not verifiable at the season-end rank level. Black was outside standard-league relevance in 2023-24, a late-round or streaming piece in 2024-25, and a rostered contributor in 2025-26 who was described in-season as hovering near top-100 in nine-cat during his best stretches — but no season-end Basketball Monster, Hashtag, or ESPN Player Rater finish for any of his three years was confirmable, so no rank is asserted here. The shape is consistent across sources: his points-league value runs materially ahead of his category value, because the counting line (points, rebounds, assists, stocks) is broad while FT% on 3.6 attempts and a rising turnover count drag the z-score profile.
Durability: 2023-24: 69 games. 2024-25: 78 games, the healthiest year of the three. 2025-26: 64 games, with the bulk of the absence a single 16-game stretch from a lateral abdominal muscle strain suffered two minutes into a game against Minnesota — initially reported as a lower back strain and reclassified after an MRI. No recurring or structural injury pattern across three seasons; the one significant absence was an acute soft-tissue event, not a chronic condition.
Trajectory: The three-year arc is a clean minutes-and-role climb — 16.9 to 24.2 to 29.8 — but the per-36 view shows the 2025-26 jump was more than opportunity. Scoring went from about 14.0 per 36 to about 18.1, and three-point makes roughly doubled per minute while the percentage rose from .318 to .333, so the shot volume expanded faster than the accuracy justified. Assists, by contrast, were flat per minute (roughly 4.6 to 4.5 per 36), which says the growth was in scoring aggression rather than in creation for others. The free-throw line remains the structural problem: .613, .761, .732 is not a solved skill, it is a wobble around low-70s on rising volume, and at 3.6 attempts a game that is a genuine category cost. He is 22 and at the point in the curve where another efficiency step is normal, but 2025-26 was inflated by Orlando's injury load (Wagner's 34 games, Suggs's 57) and a healthy top four compresses him back toward a sixth-man allocation — meaning the 2026-27 question is not whether he improved, it is whether he gets the minutes to show it.
Career sources: ESPN — Anthony Black career stats · Wikipedia — Anthony Black · Yahoo Sports — Wagner and Black injury updates · RotoWire — Anthony Black
Open questions
- Does Black begin the year at 25 minutes or closer to his 2025-26 average?
- Can he reach .76-.78 from the line?
- Will Sweeney use three-guard closing units?
- Is Black the direct starter whenever Suggs is unavailable, or does Orlando preserve his second-unit role?