Team: Milwaukee Bucks · Position: SG/SF · Age entering season: 27 · Experience: 4 seasons
Base projection
| GP | MPG | PTS | 3PM | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% (FGA) | FT% (FTA) | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 18 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | .425 (5.4) | .860 (0.7) | 0.7 |
- Nine-category band: 140-195; points band: 250+; dynasty band: 240+.
Correction 2026-07-18: raised from 10 to 18 MPG. The prior figure discounted him to a fringe streamer without accounting for the season he had just produced — 232 three-pointers at .419, breaking Ray Allen's franchise single-season record of 229, plus a franchise-record 11 makes in a single game against Brooklyn on April 10 — or for the four-year, roughly $45M contract he signed in October 2025, which pays about $10M in 2026-27 and is the fourth-largest cap hit on the roster. The crowded wing room is real and still caps him well below 29.1 minutes, but 10 was priced off the roster squeeze rather than off the player. Source: UNI Athletics record release.
Fantasy case
Green averaged 10.4 points, 3.0 threes, 2.7 rebounds, and 1.9 assists in 29.1 minutes across 78 games in 2025-26, shooting .424 overall and .419 on 7.1 three-point attempts a night. That volume produced 232 makes, the most in franchise history, past Ray Allen's 229. The skill is bankable; the minutes are not. Tyler Herro, Ryan Rollins, Brayden Burries, Gary Trent Jr, Caris LeVert, and Kevin Porter Jr all occupy adjacent roles, and beat coverage has framed Green as a trade chip to declutter the guard room. His low turnovers preserve category utility, but tiny rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks make him almost entirely a threes stream.
Low case: roster consolidation drops him to 10-12 MPG or he is traded into a deeper rotation. Base: 18 MPG and 2.0 makes, rosterable in 14-team and three-point-hungry builds. High: veteran trades restore 26+ MPG and 2.8+ threes, pushing him toward top-110 category value.
Confidence
Roster medium-high · Minutes medium-low · Rates high · Availability high.
Sources
- NBA AJ Green traditional stats — accessed 2026-07-18; 2025-26 baseline.
- RealGM Milwaukee roster — accessed 2026-07-18; role competition.
- Brew Hoop: post-Giannis roster future — published 2026-06-25; possible veteran movement.
- UNI Athletics: Green sets Bucks single-game and single-season three-point records — published 2026-04-13; 232 makes, 11 in a game.
- CBS Sports AJ Green profile — accessed 2026-07-18; 2025-26 per-game line and the four-year, $45M contract.
Learning notes
Green's waiver signal is simple: 22 projected minutes in a schedule week. His fantasy skill is obvious enough that managers need not speculate before that workload appears.
Career record
Pre-NBA: Northern Iowa (2018-22): 17.9 PTS, 3.2 REB, 2.5 AST on .411/.378 with .900 FT over 99 games (1,769 points — checksum clean: 589 FGM, 266 3PM, 325 FTM). Two-time MVC Player of the Year (2020, 2022); lost essentially all of 2020-21 to surgeries on both hips (torn labrum/fracture). Draft: undrafted (2022); signed a two-way with Milwaukee.
| Season | Age | Team | GP | MPG | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | 3PM | FG% | FT% | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 23 | MIL | 35 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.3 | .424 | 1.000 | 0.3 |
| 2023-24 | 24 | MIL | 56 | 11.0 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.2 | .423 | .895 | 0.2 |
| 2024-25 | 25 | MIL | 73 | 22.7 | 7.4 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 2.1 | .429 | .815 | 0.5 |
| 2025-26 | 26 | MIL | 78 | 29.1 | 10.4 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 3.0 | .424 | .855 | 1.0 |
| Career | 242 | 20.2 | 7.3 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 2.1 | — | — | 0.6 |
Durability: GP climb of 35 → 56 → 73 → 78 tracks role, not health — no notable NBA injuries. The college hip surgeries (2020-21) have produced no recurrence in four pro seasons. Trajectory: Four straight seasons at essentially the same FG% (.423-.429) with steadily rising minutes and three-point volume, capped by 232 makes at .419 in 2025-26 — the franchise record. This is a one-skill specialist whose skill has never wavered; every fantasy question about him is a minutes question. In 2026-27 he competes with Herro, Rollins, Trent, LeVert, and Porter for wing minutes in a decluttering guard room. He is fantasy-relevant in category leagues whenever his projected workload clears about 22 MPG — via trade, injury, or roster consolidation — because at that threshold 2.5+ threes with elite FT% and near-zero turnovers arrives almost automatically. Career sources: StatMuse season averages · Wikipedia · Basketball-Reference · Sports-Reference college page · NBA.com stats
Open questions
- Does Milwaukee retain him as a spacing specialist or trade him to a contender?
- Can he add enough steals to broaden his category profile?
- Which shooter wins closing minutes when Herro is on the floor?