Team: Indiana Pacers · PG/SG · Age 26 · Base role: secondary creator and 30-minute starter
Projection card
| GP | MPG | 3PM | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | FT% | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 30.0 | 1.5 | 14.0 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | .462 | .825 | 1.9 |
Nine-category: top 100-145 per game; assists and FT% are useful, but modest stocks/rebounds cap the ceiling. Points: top 90-130. Dynasty: top 125-190, with durable real-life role exceeding fantasy scarcity.
Why the line looks like this
Nembhard's 57 starts without Haliburton produced career highs of 16.9 points and 7.7 assists in 31.3 minutes. The projection preserves his improved shooting/creation but returns roughly two assists and three points to Haliburton. His 25 missed games and recurring back/neck management support only 66 GP. Pacers player review · Pacers game-notes injury ledger
The July Hashtag crowd ranked him 215th—far below this model's category band—apparently treating the restored role as nearly unrosterable. That is a useful buy-low signal only if he remains near 30 minutes. Hashtag crowd
Redraft, dynasty, and scenarios
- Redraft: late-round assists target in 12-team leagues, especially for low-turnover builds; do not pay for last year's 7.7 assists.
- Dynasty: inexpensive hold; trade value is likelier to rise during a Haliburton absence than through a permanent role change.
- Floor: 12 points and 4.5 assists if Oubre closes and Haliburton plays 34 minutes.
- Ceiling: 16/3/6.5 with one steal if he keeps more lead reps or Haliburton misses 15+ games.
Confidence
| Roster | Minutes | Rates | Availability |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | High | Medium-high | Medium |
Career record
Pre-NBA: Four college seasons split between two programs. Florida for two years — 36 games at 32.9 MPG for 8.0 points, 2.9 rebounds and 5.4 assists on .414/.347/.764 as a freshman (SEC All-Freshman), then 31 games at 33.2 MPG for 11.2 points and 5.6 assists on .441/.308/.775. He transferred to Gonzaga and came off the bench as a junior on the 2021 undefeated-until-the-final team: 32 games, 29.9 MPG, 9.2 points, 4.4 assists on .480/.323/.754, winning WCC Sixth Man of the Year. The senior year was his best: 32 games, 32.2 MPG, 11.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, 5.8 assists on .452/.383/.873, first-team All-WCC and WCC Tournament Most Outstanding Player. Four straight seasons above 4.4 assists per game with the shooting only arriving at the end. Draft: 2022, second round, 31st overall by Indiana — no draft-night trade.
| Season | Age | Team | GP | MPG | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | 3PM | FG% | FT% | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 23 | IND | 75 | 27.7 | 9.5 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 1.2 | .441 | .790 | 1.7 |
| 2023-24 | 24 | IND | 68 | 25.0 | 9.2 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.9 | .498 | .804 | 1.5 |
| 2024-25 | 25 | IND | 65 | 28.9 | 10.0 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.8 | .458 | .794 | 1.7 |
| 2025-26 | 26 | IND | 57 | 31.3 | 16.9 | 2.8 | 7.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.9 | .442 | .825 | 2.4 |
| Career | 265 | 28.1 | 11.1 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.2 | .457 | .809 | 1.8 |
Three-point percentage by season: .350, .357, .291, .361. The 2024-25 collapse to .291 on low volume is the noisiest number in his profile and the 2025-26 recovery to .361 on more than double the attempts is the most encouraging. He signed a four-year, $8.6M rookie deal in July 2022 and a three-year, $59M extension in July 2024.
Fantasy history: Season-end nine-cat ranks are not verifiable from the sources checked, so I will not put numbers on them. What the lines support: 2022-23 through 2024-25 were three near-identical seasons of 9-10 points and 4-5 assists in 25-29 minutes — deep-league assist filler with a steal rate around 1.0 and nothing else, and a 2024-25 three-point percentage of .291 that actively cost fantasy teams. The 2025-26 season is the only one with standard-league value, driven by 16.9 points and 7.7 assists. Note the hidden cost: turnovers went from 1.7 to 2.4 as the usage arrived, which in nine-cat eats a meaningful share of what the assists gained. The points-league shape is materially better than the category shape here, because points formats pay for the assist and scoring volume without charging him for the turnovers, the near-zero blocks or the ordinary rebounding.
Durability: 75, 68, 65, 57 games. That is a four-year downward trend and it deserves more weight than a single-season injury note. The 25 games missed in 2025-26 were largely a back and neck problem: cervical and lumbar soreness that he managed through the second half, playing six of eight games after the All-Star break before missing the final seven games of the regular season while Indiana was deliberately cautious. He was also on the injury report earlier in the season. None of these are structural injuries, but chronic lower-back and neck soreness in a guard is exactly the category that recurs and that quietly costs 10-15 games a year.
Trajectory: For three seasons Nembhard was a flat, well-defined player: a low-usage connector guard who defended, moved the ball, and shot inconsistently from three. The 2025-26 leap was almost entirely a role handout — Haliburton's absence vacated the lead-guard job and Nembhard's usage, minutes and assists all rose together. The per-minute test is instructive rather than flattering: his scoring rate roughly jumped from about 12.5 to 19.4 points per 36 and assists from 6.2 to 8.9, so this was more than the extra 2.4 minutes, but it came with the turnover rate rising in step, which is what you expect when a connector is asked to be a creator rather than when a creator emerges. The genuinely new skill is the three-point volume — 1.9 makes at .361 after never clearing 1.2 — and if that holds it raises his floor in any role. He is 26 and at the front of his prime, so decline is not the issue. The issue for 2026-27 is arithmetic: Haliburton reclaims the ball, the 7.7 assists are not repeatable, and the durability trend argues against projecting a full season on top of a reduced rate.
Career sources: ESPN career stats, Wikipedia — Florida, Gonzaga, draft, contracts, Yahoo Sports — 2025-26 back soreness, NBA.com Pacers player review
Open questions
- Does Nembhard retain the ball in late-clock possessions or return mostly to connector duties?
- Are his back/neck management days a continuing availability pattern?