Team: Indiana Pacers · SF/PF · Age 26 · Base role: 26-minute starting wing
Projection card
| GP | MPG | 3PM | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | FT% | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 26.0 | 2.0 | 10.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | .447 | .835 | 0.9 |
Nine-category: top 135-190 per game; threes and low turnovers are useful, but low usage and ordinary stocks limit ceiling. Points: top 140-200. Dynasty: top 170-240.
Why the line looks like this
Nesmith set career highs in minutes, points and rebounds but played only 45 games, averaging 13.8/4.2/1.9 on 41.4% FG and 37.9% from three. A knee MCL sprain, ankle issues and late cervical strain explain the conservative games estimate. Haliburton's return improves shot quality while Oubre's arrival removes volume. Pacers player review · Pacers injury ledger
The July Hashtag crowd ranked Nesmith 271st, a much more pessimistic view than this model's starter-minute band. Hashtag crowd
Redraft, dynasty, and scenarios
- Redraft: waiver-first in 12-team leagues; stream for threes when Oubre or Walker sits.
- Dynasty: hold in deep leagues because the extension and age protect NBA minutes, but fantasy upside requires a usage change.
- Floor: 22 minutes and under 10 points if Oubre starts/closes.
- Ceiling: 29 minutes, 13 points and 2.5 threes with 45% FG; back-end top 120.
Confidence
| Roster | Minutes | Rates | Availability |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | Medium | Medium-high | Medium-low |
Career record
Pre-NBA: Vanderbilt, two seasons (2018-19 and 2019-20), SEC. Freshman year 11.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists on .392/.337/.825. Sophomore year 23.0 points, 4.9 rebounds, 0.9 assists on .512/.522/.825 — fifth in Division I in scoring — but the sample is only 14 games: he broke his right foot against Auburn on January 11, 2020, had surgery on January 28, and did not play again. The 52.2% three-point mark that drove his draft stock therefore rests on half a season, and he has not approached it since. Draft: 2020, first round, 14th overall, Boston. Traded: July 9, 2022 to Indiana with Daniel Theis, Malik Fitts, Juwan Morgan, Nik Stauskas and a 2023 first-rounder for Malcolm Brogdon.
| Season | Age | Team | GP | MPG | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | 3PM | FG% | FT% | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | 21 | BOS | 46 | 14.5 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.9 | .438 | .786 | 0.5 |
| 2021-22 | 22 | BOS | 52 | 11.0 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.6 | .396 | .808 | 0.6 |
| 2022-23 | 23 | IND | 73 | 24.9 | 10.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.6 | .427 | .838 | 1.0 |
| 2023-24 | 24 | IND | 72 | 27.7 | 12.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.9 | .496 | .781 | 0.9 |
| 2024-25 | 25 | IND | 45 | 24.9 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.9 | .507 | .913 | 0.8 |
| 2025-26 | 26 | IND | 45 | 29.7 | 13.8 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 2.3 | .414 | .829 | 1.4 |
| Career | 333 | 22.6 | 9.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 1.5 | .453 | .828 | 0.9 |
Three-point percentage by season: .370, .270, .366, .419, .431, .379.
Fantasy history: season-end 9-category ranks are not verifiable from public sources for any season of his career and are not estimated here. The verifiable markers are directional only: the July 2026 Hashtag crowd consensus has him 271st, and his two most productive per-game seasons (2024-25, 2025-26) were both 45-game years, which is the central fact for any format that counts totals. In roto and points leagues the games played matter more than the rate; in head-to-head categories his threes-plus-free-throw-percentage profile has real weeks of usefulness and real weeks of absence.
Durability: 46 GP, 52, 73, 72, 45, 45. The Boston seasons were rotation-driven rather than health-driven. The two 45-game seasons were not: in 2024-25 he missed roughly 35 games with a left ankle sprain, out for all of December plus parts of November and January; in 2025-26 he sprained the left MCL in his left knee against Phoenix on November 13, 2025, was given a four-week timeline that Carlisle then walked back to no timetable, and did not return until near the end of December. He then lost at least five more consecutive games late in the season to a cervical strain. Two straight seasons cut roughly in half by unrelated injuries, and the underlying issue is that he plays a high-contact, floor-diving style that generates the injuries as a byproduct.
Trajectory: The Indiana trade was the whole career — minutes went 11.0 to 24.9 immediately and he became a real rotation player at 23. From there the arc splits cleanly into rate and volume. Through 2024-25 he was on a genuine efficiency climb: .427 to .496 to .507 from the field, .366 to .419 to .431 from three, all of it as a low-usage cutter and spot-up shooter feeding off Haliburton's passing. In 2025-26 the minutes hit a career high 29.7 and the counting stats followed to 13.8 points and 2.3 threes, but the efficiency fell off a cliff — .414 from the field, .379 from three, turnovers up from 0.8 to 1.4 and assists up to 1.9. That is the signature of a complementary player asked to create for himself without his primary engine, and it makes the 2025-26 scoring line a mirage rather than a leap. He was at 15.5 points through 11 games before the MCL sprain and never recovered that level afterward. For 2026-27 he is 27, past the point of a skill jump, and the reasonable expectation is a return toward the 2023-24 shape — mid-40s from the field, high-30s from three, 12-ish points — with Oubre and Walker capping the minutes.
Career sources: ESPN career stats · StatMuse games played by season · Wikipedia — Vanderbilt career, draft and trade history · NBA.com — Nesmith sidelined a month with left knee injury · Forbes — Pacers health issues, November 2025
Open questions
- Does Nesmith start and close when Oubre is available?
- Can his defense generate a full steal per game without sacrificing foul control?