Team: Golden State Warriors · Age: 36 · Position: SG/SF/PF · Status: confirmed contract; right-ACL rehabilitation · As of: 2026-07-18
2026-27 return-phase median
| GP | MPG | FG% | FT% | 3PM | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 27.5 | .480 | .835 | 0.5 | 16.4 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.8 |
Nine-cat: top-70 to top-120 per game after return; totals outside the standard top 150. Points: B when active, IL stash only in shallow formats. Dynasty: 3.5/10. Opening-night allocation: 0 minutes.
Injury and role evidence
Butler averaged 20.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, 4.9 assists, and 1.4 steals in 31.1 minutes over 38 games, shooting .519 FG and .864 FT (ESPN). He tore his right ACL January 19 and underwent surgery February 10 (NBA.com). June reporting said the Warriors were planning around a midseason return (San Francisco Chronicle).
Butler surfaced in late-June reporting as the salary-matching piece in a hypothetical Anthony Davis trade with Washington, his $56.8 million expiring roughly matching Davis's $58.4 million (NBC Sports Bay Area, June 29). That scenario was contingent on signing LeBron James and has since been discounted from several directions: ESPN's Windhorst said there was no data suggesting it was likely, the Warriors told Butler they were not trading him, his agent Bernie Lee publicly denied the speculation, and Washington's front office said Davis wants to stay. The projection below is therefore not discounted for trade probability, but the possibility is not zero while James remains unsigned.
The projection assumes a gradual return around January/February, missed back-to-backs, and fewer minutes than his pre-injury baseline. It deliberately reduces FG%, free-throw pressure, and steals rather than assuming immediate full athletic recovery. When active, Butler displaces wing minutes from Santos, Richard, and Lendeborg and shares creation with Curry/Podziemski.
Range
- Ceiling: returns in December, reaches 32 MPG by January, plays 43 games, and produces top-45 per-game value.
- Median: 30 games with ramp management and occasional rest; useful during fantasy playoffs but weak full-season return on draft capital.
- Floor: return slips beyond February, effectiveness is limited, or the season becomes a rehabilitation year with fewer than 15 games.
The floor is not a claim of reinjury; it is the normal uncertainty distribution after ACL surgery at age 36.
Career record
Pre-NBA: Tyler Junior College (2007-08), then Marquette (2008-11). At Tyler he averaged 18.1 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 3.1 assists as a JUCO transfer prospect. At Marquette he was a bench piece as a sophomore (35 GP, 19.6 MPG, 5.6 PTS, 3.9 REB, .514 FG, .768 FT), then started every game thereafter: 2009-10, 34 GP, 34.3 MPG, 14.7 PTS, 6.4 REB, 2.0 AST, .530 FG, .766 FT; 2010-11, 37 GP, 34.6 MPG, 15.7 PTS, 6.1 REB, 2.3 AST, .490 FG, .345 3P, .783 FT. All-Big East Honorable Mention in both starting seasons; Big East. Career Marquette line across 106 games: 12.0 PTS, 5.5 REB, 1.7 AST on .508/.383/.773. Draft: 2011, first round, 30th overall, Chicago Bulls — the last pick of the first round, not traded.
| Season | Age | Team | GP | MPG | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | 3PM | FG% | FT% | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-12 | 22 | CHI | 42 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | .405 | .768 | 0.3 |
| 2012-13 | 23 | CHI | 82 | 26.0 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.5 | .467 | .803 | 0.8 |
| 2013-14 | 24 | CHI | 67 | 38.7 | 13.1 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 1.0 | .397 | .769 | 1.5 |
| 2014-15 | 25 | CHI | 65 | 38.7 | 20.0 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 1.1 | .462 | .834 | 1.4 |
| 2015-16 | 26 | CHI | 67 | 36.9 | 20.9 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 1.0 | .454 | .832 | 2.0 |
| 2016-17 | 27 | CHI | 76 | 37.0 | 23.9 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 1.2 | .455 | .865 | 2.1 |
| 2017-18 | 28 | MIN | 59 | 36.7 | 22.2 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 1.2 | .474 | .854 | 1.8 |
| 2018-19 | 29 | MIN/PHI | 65 | 33.6 | 18.7 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 1.0 | .462 | .855 | 1.5 |
| 2019-20 | 30 | MIA | 58 | 33.8 | 19.9 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 | .455 | .834 | 2.2 |
| 2020-21 | 31 | MIA | 52 | 33.6 | 21.5 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | .497 | .863 | 2.1 |
| 2021-22 | 32 | MIA | 57 | 33.9 | 21.4 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | .480 | .870 | 2.1 |
| 2022-23 | 33 | MIA | 64 | 33.4 | 22.9 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.6 | .539 | .850 | 1.6 |
| 2023-24 | 34 | MIA | 60 | 34.0 | 20.8 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | .499 | .858 | 1.7 |
| 2024-25 | 35 | MIA/GSW | 55 | 31.7 | 17.5 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | .504 | .842 | 1.3 |
| 2025-26 | 36 | GSW | 38 | 31.1 | 20.0 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.8 | .519 | .864 | 1.6 |
| Career | 907 | 33.0 | 18.4 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.8 | .474 | .844 | 1.6 |
The 2018-19 split was 10 games in Minnesota before the November trade and 55 in Philadelphia. The 2024-25 split was 25 games in Miami — a stretch shortened by two team-imposed suspensions during the trade standoff — and 30 in Golden State after the February 6 five-team deal. Per-team lines for the 2024-25 halves are not verified here; only the combined row is.
Fantasy history: Butler's season-end 9-cat ranks are not reliably verifiable from the sources reachable for this entry, and the secondary write-ups that surfaced conflicted with each other, so specific finishes are not asserted. The shape is consistent and is what matters: from 2014-15 through 2022-23 he was a first- or second-round category asset built on an unusual four-pillar base — high-volume free throws at 83-87 percent, elite steals, real assists from a forward slot, and, from 2021 onward, top-decile field goal percentage. He has never been a three-point contributor (career 0.8 3PM), and blocks are a zero. That two-category hole is why his category value has always run ahead of his points-league value: in points formats he grades as a solid but unspectacular starter, because the steals and efficiency that carry him in 9-cat are worth comparatively little there. The 2023-24 and 2024-25 seasons were his weakest by both measures — usage and steals both fell — before 2025-26 showed a per-game rebound.
Durability: GP by season: 42, 82, 67, 65, 67, 76, 59, 65, 58, 52, 57, 64, 60, 55, 38. He has cleared 70 games exactly twice in fifteen years and not once since 2016-17. The pattern is a long tail of soft-tissue and joint absences rather than one catastrophic history: a left elbow injury and knee issues in 2013-14, a sprained left elbow in 2015-16, a right knee injury in 2016-17, a right hand injury and meniscus surgery in 2017-18 that cost 17 games, a right shoulder/back stretch in 2019-20, ankle sprains and knee inflammation across the Miami years, and an MCL sprain in the 2023 and 2024 postseasons. The 2024-25 games-missed total is partly disciplinary, not medical — Miami suspended him twice, including a seven-game suspension in January 2025. The 2025-26 season ended January 19, 2026 at 38 games on a torn right ACL suffered on a collision with Davion Mitchell against Miami; surgery followed on February 9-10, 2026.
Trajectory: Butler's arc is one of the most extreme late-blooming curves in the modern league — a 30th pick averaging 2.6 points as a rookie who reached 23.9 by year six — and it was driven by minutes and role, not by a skill discontinuity: the 2013-14 jump to 38.7 MPG under Thibodeau converted an elite defender into a full-time offensive initiator, and the shot diet followed. The second, more durable leap came in Miami, where his field goal percentage moved from the .450s to .497/.480/.539 between 2020-21 and 2022-23 as he abandoned the mid-range for rim pressure and free throws; that was a genuine efficiency change, not a minutes artifact, and it is what let him stay productive as athleticism receded. He is now past the point where per-36 flatters him — the 2025-26 line of 20.0 points in 31.1 minutes on .519 shooting was arguably his most efficient work ever, but it came in a reduced role next to Curry and with steals down to 1.4 from a 2.1 peak. For 2026-27 the question is not whether the skills survive but whether a 37-year-old knee does: ACL returns at this age reliably cost the first-step burst that generates his steals and his foul-drawing, which are precisely the two columns his category value is built on. Treat any projection as a bet on volume of games, not on rate.
Career sources: ESPN career stats · StatMuse season-by-season · Wikipedia — Jimmy Butler · NBA.com — season-ending ACL tear
Open questions
- What on-court activities is Butler cleared for at training camp?
- Does the club announce a target month or avoid calendar guidance?
- How much burst and free-throw generation return in his first 15 games?