Team: Golden State Warriors · Age: 24 · Position: SF/PF · Status: confirmed contract · As of: 2026-07-18
2026-27 median projection
| GP | MPG | FG% | FT% | 3PM | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 27.0 | .480 | .755 | 1.6 | 13.2 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.8 |
Nine-cat: top-120 to top-170. Points: B- as an October volume play. Dynasty: 7.0/10. Opening-night allocation: 27 minutes.
Role and evidence
Santos averaged 9.2 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.9 steals, and 1.1 threes in 20.5 minutes across 68 games, shooting .500 from the field (ESPN). He also increased his scoring sharply during the late-season injury stretch; a June rotation projection cited 15.4 points over his final 31 games (Sports Illustrated).
The base case starts Santos at small forward. He can connect possessions, rebound, cut, and defend multiple frontcourt positions, which makes him easier for Kerr to play than a pure scorer. His 2025-26 .500 FG is likely to regress as usage rises, and his .725 FT line was a real category weakness on modest volume.
Santos has two separate clocks: Butler's ACL return and Moody's patellar-tendon return. Butler is more likely to affect the first half of 2026-27; Moody may not matter until late. A major external wing acquisition would be a third and potentially immediate threat.
Range
- Ceiling: 30-32 MPG through February, 15/6/3 with 1.8 threes, and a top-100 stretch.
- Median: useful early-season streamer whose full-season ranking lands outside the top 120 as Butler returns.
- Floor: Lendeborg wins the forward job or a veteran arrives; Santos falls below 20 minutes and loses standard-league relevance.
Career record
Pre-NBA: No college. Minas Tênis Clube in Brazil's Novo Basquete Brasil, four seasons, debuting at 16. NBB regular-season record per RealGM: 2018-19, 3 games, 1.8 minutes, negligible production; 2019-20, 4 games, 3.5 minutes, 1.5 points; 2020-21, 35 games, 20.1 minutes, 7.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists on .482/.386/.594; 2021-22, 37 games, 25.7 minutes, 10.1 points, 5.1 rebounds, 2.0 assists on .456/.298/.748, winning NBB Sixth Man of the Year. He also played the LDB under-20 circuit (14.5 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.6 assists in 2019) and the Nike Hoop Summit in April 2021. Draft: 2022, second round, 55th overall, Golden State. He was a draft-and-stash in effect — he spent all of 2022-23 with Santa Cruz in the G League (30 games, 13 starts, 10.0 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2.3 assists in 25.7 minutes, named to the inaugural G League Next Up Game) and did not appear in an NBA game until after Golden State signed him to a three-year deal on November 7, 2023.
| Season | Age | Team | GP | MPG | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | 3PM | FG% | FT% | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 21 | GSW | 23 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | .509 | .941 | 0.3 |
| 2024-25 | 22 | GSW | 56 | 13.6 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | .458 | .690 | 0.8 |
| 2025-26 | 23 | GSW | 68 | 20.5 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.1 | .500 | .725 | 1.5 |
| Career | 147 | 16.0 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.8 | .490 | .737 | 1.0 |
Three-point percentage by season: .370 on tiny volume (2023-24), .330 (2024-25), .351 (2025-26). The 2025-26 second-half split is the number that matters for 2026-27: he started 28 of the final 31 games and averaged 15.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.6 threes in 31.0 minutes on .507 from the field, per the widely reported season-end split. Golden State signed him to a three-year, $15 million extension in February 2026.
Fantasy history: he has no meaningful fantasy history to report. Seasons one and two were sub-14-minute roles with no standard-league relevance in any format, and season-end 9-category ranks are not verifiable for any of his three years and are not estimated here. The only fantasy-relevant evidence in his record is the 31-game closing stretch, which is a role sample rather than a ranking, and which no public season-end rank captures because it was diluted by 37 games of bench minutes.
Durability: 23 GP, 56, 68 — the rising line reflects role, not health. In 2025-26 he missed time with a right pelvic contusion, and separately exited a game against New York in the first quarter with a sprained left ankle after colliding with Josh Hart. Both were short absences; reporting noted he had gone from January 19 to that pelvic injury without missing a game. Nothing in the record suggests a durability problem, but there is also no season yet in which he has been asked to carry 30 minutes for a full year.
Trajectory: This is a genuine three-year development curve rather than a minutes illusion, which is rare. Per-36, he went from 15.6 points in 2023-24 to 10.9 in 2024-25 to 16.2 in 2025-26 — the middle-year dip is the important part, because it shows the 2024-25 role was a defensive-specialist assignment and the 2025-26 jump came from restored shot-making, not just clock. He held .500 from the field at more than double his previous usage, which is the single most encouraging fact in the profile, and the assist rate rising from 1.4 to 2.3 to 4.0 across the closing stretch suggests Kerr trusts him as a connector rather than a finisher. He turns 25 in June 2027 and is on the upslope of the curve, so further improvement is the base case rather than the bull case. The two real caps are the free-throw line, where .725 on low volume is a category liability that gets worse with usage, and the three, which at .351 on modest attempts is adequate but not yet a weapon. Butler's return is the schedule risk, not the skill risk.
Career sources: ESPN career stats · RealGM player profile · RealGM international stats · Wikipedia — Brazilian career and draft · Santa Cruz Warriors — Next Up Game selection · NBC Sports Bay Area — development profile
Open questions
- Does Santos or Lendeborg start at small forward in camp?
- Can Santos preserve positive FG impact at higher volume?
- How quickly does Butler reclaim 25-plus wing minutes?