Research cutoff: July 18, 2026. Team: Cleveland Cavaliers.
2026-27 projection
| GP | MPG | FG% | FT% | 3PM | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 20.0 | .430 | .870 | 2.3 | 9.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.7 |
Merrill's 2025-26 line was 52 games, 26.5 minutes, .461 FG, .855 FT, 3.0 threes, 12.8 points, 2.6 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.1 blocks, and 0.8 turnovers. The model cuts minutes because Max Strus is back, Jaylon Tyson has earned a role, and rookie Meleek Thomas needs some development time. 2025-26 Cavaliers statistics
Fantasy profile
- Role: movement shooter with 15 minutes at SG and five in spacing-heavy forward groups. Cleveland signed him to a multi-year deal in July 2025. Cavaliers signing release
- 9-cat: 3PM and low TO are the clear wins; strong FT% has limited volume. Low blocks/rebounds and modest points make him a specialist. Draft range: pick 155-200.
- Points leagues: generally a waiver streamer because real-life gravity is not fully rewarded.
- Dynasty: Hashtag ranked him 338th in dynasty and 548th in keeper. Hold only in deep formats where elite shooting specialists retain value. Hashtag dynasty rankings
Floor, base, ceiling
- Floor: 14-17 minutes if Thomas is ready or Cleveland adds another star wing; 3PM-only stream.
- Base: 20 minutes, about 2.3 threes, low turnovers, and no other standard-league category.
- Ceiling: top 100-120 if injuries restore 27 minutes and three-plus threes.
Health and role uncertainty
A right-hand sprain cost Merrill 14 games in November-December 2025, and he had late-season left-hamstring management. There was no current restriction at the cutoff. Cavaliers feature, January 5, 2026
His base minutes fall if LeBron arrives without Strus leaving; they rise if Strus is traded or Mitchell/Harden misses time. Merrill is a better fantasy schedule tool than a set-and-forget asset.
Career record
Pre-NBA: Utah State, four seasons (2016-17 through 2019-20) — a full four-year college career, unusual for a current rotation NBA player. He went 9.1 PTS / 3.0 REB / 3.2 AST on .450 FG and .451 3PT as a freshman, then 16.3 / 3.3 / 3.1 on .504 FG and .464 3PT (third-team All-Mountain West), then 20.9 / 3.9 / 4.2 on .461 FG and .376 3PT as a junior, winning Mountain West Player of the Year, AP honorable-mention All-American and conference tournament MVP, and closed with 19.7 / 4.1 / 3.9 on .461 FG and .410 3PT as a senior, again first-team All-MWC and tournament MVP. The three-point accuracy was elite and stable across four years at high volume, which is the entire basis of his NBA career. Draft: 2020, second round, 60th overall — the literal last pick of the draft — by the New Orleans Pelicans, traded to Milwaukee four days later.
| Season | Age | Team | GP | MPG | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | 3PM | FG% | FT% | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | 24 | MIL | 30 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | .444 | 1.000 | 0.3 |
| 2021-22 | 25 | MEM | 6 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | .333 | .500 | 0.3 |
| 2022-23 | 26 | CLE | 5 | 11.8 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.0 | .409 | 1.000 | 0.0 |
| 2023-24 | 27 | CLE | 61 | 17.5 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 2.3 | .402 | .929 | 0.3 |
| 2024-25 | 28 | CLE | 71 | 19.7 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.9 | .406 | .966 | 0.5 |
| 2025-26 | 29 | CLE | 52 | 26.5 | 12.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 3.0 | .461 | .855 | 0.8 |
| Career | 225 | 18.7 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 2.1 | .424 | .890 | 0.5 |
The first three seasons are fragments, not rotation years. Merrill spent 2020-21 through 2022-23 shuttling between the NBA and the G League — Memphis Hustle after a 2021 trade, then waived by Sacramento before the 2022-23 season and picked first overall in the G League draft by the Cleveland Charge, which led to a March 2023 10-day contract and the multi-year deal that started his real career. He also holds a 2021 championship ring from his Milwaukee rookie season. The FT percentages in the tiny-sample seasons (1.000 on a handful of attempts) should not be read as skill signal; the 2023-24 through 2025-26 marks are the meaningful ones.
Fantasy history: Season-end nine-category ranks are not verifiable from public sources here, and no per-season rank is asserted. The structural read is unambiguous from the lines themselves: 2023-24 and 2024-25 were sub-200 specialist seasons where the only positive categories were 3PM, FT% on thin volume, and near-zero turnovers. The 2025-26 jump to 3.0 threes on .461 FG in 26.5 minutes was the first season that plausibly reached standard-league relevance, and even then the 52-game total caps the full-season value badly. The dossier's cited Hashtag dynasty placement (338th dynasty, 548th keeper) is consistent with that. Points leagues are worse for him than categories, not better — the format strips out his two best assets, elite FT% and turnover avoidance, and pays only for volume he does not have.
Durability: GP by season — 30, 6, 5, 61, 71, 52. The early three are role and roster artifacts rather than health. Within Cleveland's rotation era the pattern is 61, 71, then 52. The 2025-26 shortfall of 30 games is only partly explained by verified reporting: he missed 14 consecutive games with a right-hand injury sustained against Philadelphia, and he separately picked up a left hamstring injury in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals against Detroit that cost him playoff time. The remaining regular-season absences are not attributable to a named cause from sources checked, so roughly half the missed games stay unexplained here rather than being assigned a guess. He started a career-high 38 games in 2025-26.
Trajectory: Merrill is a late-blooming specialist whose curve is entirely about opportunity, not development — he arrived with a finished skill at 24 and waited three years for minutes. The 2025-26 leap is real but needs decomposition: minutes rose from 19.7 to 26.5, which alone explains most of the scoring jump, while the genuinely new element was efficiency, a .461 FG on a shot diet that is mostly threes and a .421 mark from deep well above his .402/.406 baseline. That efficiency is the part most likely to regress, and this dossier's projection of .430 FG correctly treats it as an outlier rather than a new level. His per-36 scoring did rise meaningfully (roughly 17.4 from 13.2), so it is not purely a minutes illusion, but the assist and rebound rates barely moved, which confirms the profile has not broadened. At 30 in 2026-27 he is past the age where a specialist adds a second skill, and his value is now a pure function of whether Cleveland's wing depth leaves him 20-plus minutes — a role question, not a talent question.
Career sources: ESPN career stats · ESPN bio — birthdate and draft · StatMuse season-by-season per game · Wikipedia — Utah State career, draft, G League path · CBS Sports player page — 2025-26 injury reporting
Open questions
- Does he retain 20-plus minutes with the wing group healthy?
- Can the .461 FG% repeat at his three-point-heavy shot profile?
- Does Cleveland use Thomas primarily in the G League?
Related: Cleveland Cavaliers · Max Strus · Meleek Thomas