Research cutoff: July 18, 2026. Team: Cleveland Cavaliers.
2026-27 projection
| GP | MPG | FG% | FT% | 3PM | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 34.0 | .548 | .680 | 1.0 | 19.1 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
Mobley recorded 18.2 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.7 blocks, and one three in 31.9 minutes across 65 games in 2025-26, but shot .606 at the line. The model adds minutes and modest creation while baking in only a partial FT recovery. 2025-26 Cavaliers statistics
Role and category profile
- Role: starting power forward, secondary hub, and closing center. The 34-minute allocation includes seven minutes at center behind or instead of Jarrett Allen.
- 9-cat: elite BLK with positive FG%, REB, and out-of-position AST; neutral 3PM is valuable for a big. FT% is a material negative at his volume, and the percentages can make his rank build-dependent.
- Points leagues: top-20-to-35 profile because stocks, rebounds, and assists accumulate even when usage is shared.
- Dynasty: Dynatyze ranked Mobley 15th on July 18; Hashtag listed him 16th in dynasty and 19th in keeper. He belongs in the top-20 dynasty core tier with credible top-10 upside. Dynatyze · Hashtag dynasty
Floor, base, ceiling
- Floor: top 30-40 per game when FT% stays near .610, Allen remains healthy, and another creator reduces touches.
- Base: pick 15-30; roughly 19/9.5/4 with nearly two blocks and a positive FG% anchor.
- Ceiling: top 8-12 if he reaches 20/10/4, clears .700 at the line, and plays more center.
Health and uncertainty
Recurring left-calf trouble cost Mobley time in December and January; the official January 27 update gave a one-to-three-week return window, and he finished with 65 games. The 68-game projection acknowledges recurrence/maintenance risk without treating him as currently injured. NBA.com, January 27, 2026
The other uncertainty is usage. A LeBron arrival is not in the base case; it would probably raise assisted efficiency but lower Mobley's on-ball ceiling. An Allen absence has the opposite effect, boosting center minutes, rebounds, and blocks.
Career record
Pre-NBA: USC, one season (2020-21). Started all 33 games for 16.4 points, 8.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 2.9 blocks on .578 shooting; his 95 blocks set the USC freshman record. He became the first player to sweep Pac-12 Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year and Freshman of the Year in one season, and took Pac-12 Freshman of the Week seven times. College free-throw and three-point percentages not verified here. Draft: 2021, first round, No. 3, Cleveland Cavaliers; no draft-night trade.
| Season | Age | Team | GP | MPG | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | 3PM | FG% | FT% | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | 20 | CLE | 69 | 33.8 | 15.0 | 8.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 0.3 | .508 | .663 | 1.9 |
| 2022-23 | 21 | CLE | 79 | 34.4 | 16.2 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | .554 | .674 | 1.8 |
| 2023-24 | 22 | CLE | 50 | 30.6 | 15.7 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | .579 | .719 | 1.8 |
| 2024-25 | 23 | CLE | 71 | 30.5 | 18.5 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.2 | .557 | .725 | 2.0 |
| 2025-26 | 24 | CLE | 65 | 31.9 | 18.2 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 1.0 | .546 | .606 | 1.9 |
| Career | CLE | 334 | 32.4 | 16.7 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | .547 | .674 | 1.9 |
Fantasy history: Season-end nine-category ranks were not verifiable from a rater source for any individual season, so none are asserted here. The shape is legible from the line itself. Through 2023-24 he was a positive-but-not-elite category asset: strong FG% and blocks, real rebounds, unusual assists for a big, and no threes to speak of. The 2024-25 season was the breakout in fantasy terms specifically because the three arrived — 1.2 made per game from 0.4 — which converted him from a two-category big into a five-category one and pushed him into the early-round conversation. The 2025-26 season stayed statistically flat on every counting line but the .606 free-throw mark at his volume was a material category drag, and that single number is most of the gap between his 2024-25 and 2025-26 value. Points-league value is steadier than category value because free-throw percentage does not exist there; his stocks, boards and assists accumulate regardless of who is shooting.
Durability: GP by season: 69, 79, 50, 71, 65. The 2023-24 collapse to 50 games was left-knee surgery, followed by an ankle sprain in March 2024 — the only structural injury on the record. The 13 games missed as a rookie have no verified cause here. In 2025-26 he lost two separate stretches to left-calf strains: a Grade 1 strain in December 2025 that cost five games with a return on December 25, and a second left-calf strain in late January 2026 given a one-to-three-week window. Two calf events in one season on the same leg is the live concern; the encouraging counterpoint is that he has returned at or ahead of every published timeline.
Trajectory: Mobley's first three years were an efficiency climb without a usage climb — .508 to .554 to .579 on essentially the same shot diet, which reflected better finishing and shot selection rather than a bigger role. The genuine leap was 2024-25 under Kenny Atkinson, and it was a shot-diet change, not a minutes change: he actually played fewer minutes than in 2022-23 (30.5 versus 34.4) while scoring three more points, because he began taking and making threes. That is real improvement, not accumulation, and the per-minute evidence supports it. The 2025-26 season added creation (3.6 assists, a career high) but nothing else, and the free-throw regression to .606 looks more like variance than decay given .719 and .725 in the two prior years. At 25 he is squarely on the up-slope of the curve with a defensive peak already banked, and the honest 2026-27 case is that the counting stats are near their real level while the percentages have room to normalize upward.
Career sources: ESPN career stats, StatMuse season-by-season, Wikipedia — Evan Mobley, USC Trojans player page, ESPN calf-strain report, NBA.com calf-strain report
Open questions
- Is the calf fully unrestricted in camp?
- Can he restore FT% to at least the high .600s?
- Will Cleveland intentionally expand his half-court creation after extending Mitchell?
Related: Cleveland Cavaliers · Jarrett Allen · Donovan Mitchell