chronicaria/MWPA

All matches

Summit, 2–5

August 8 · 7 rounds · SN0RLAX, MLK and Trzzcko played for Red, against Blue.

Map
Summit
Started
August 8
Score
2–5 for Red
Result
lost
Focal players
SN0RLAX, MLK, Trzzcko
Lobby divisions
Bronze 3 to Gold 1

Match win probability curve, action by action

The curve is drawn by quad-app.js. Without it, every round below is still open.

132 nodes: 7 round start, 59 clock, 59 action, 7 terminal. The curve steps at a round boundary and the step is real: the match model runs every future round at a constant win probability of 0.5, so a boundary is the score talking, and the round-start node then moves it to the model's price on the round about to be played. Across the 2,046 rounds of this act the median step is 1.5 match win probability points and the largest is 10.9; neither end of it is a player.

All ten players

Everyone but the four is a match-scoped pseudonym: the same person in two matches carries two unrelated names, and nothing here links them.

WhoThe instrumentThe box score
NameAgentMWPAKDADamage
Red · the side the four played on
SN0RLAXSage+17.91%6621,279
Anonymous#b5cfcbYoru+3.28%761894
MLKSova-4.11%371457
TrzzckoOmen-8.49%271618
Anonymous#f82431Raze-16.09%281473
Blue · opponents
Anonymous#5a3b5cClove+19.41%22523,248
Anonymous#1f7f44Fade+3.06%6471,273
Anonymous#9b2d6dCypher+2.60%234413
Anonymous#c85052Phoenix-2.99%345856
Anonymous#dadc80Reyna-14.58%143269

The three biggest swings

Single events, signed, and only the four: a death debit ranks here as one.

  1. Round 3 · SN0RLAX · kill credit

    +9.31% match win probability points

    at 0–2
  2. Round 4 · SN0RLAX · death debit

    -7.08% match win probability points

    at 1–2
  3. Round 5 · Trzzcko · death debit

    -5.30% match win probability points

    at 2–2

Round by round

Selecting a round on the figure opens it here.

Abilities do not exist in this data at any grain — four integers per player-match, null in every round record — so smokes, flashes and mollies are absent from every number here. Revives are UNCREDITED rather than absent: a revive is a timed event, so the curve moves under one and the round timeline prints that move beside whoever cast it, but revive is not one of the five credit types and no player's ledger carries it. The five are the whole ledger, and no cell renders a zero for utility.

Round 1 focal side lost

Won byBlue · eliminationScore entering0–0Round leverage0.1612Leverage index1.00×

Time into the roundNode kindNameMatch win probabilityMove
0.0sRound start—49.2%-0.78%
14.1sClock—49.4%+0.20%
14.1sKillAnonymous#b5cfcb → Anonymous#c8505252.4%+2.99%
16.2sKillAnonymous#5a3b5c → Anonymous#b5cfcb49.0%-3.46%
17.4sKillAnonymous#5a3b5c → SN0RLAX45.2%-3.79%
19.9sClock—45.1%-0.05%
19.9sKillAnonymous#5a3b5c → Anonymous#f8243143.2%-1.96%
22.3sKillAnonymous#5a3b5c → Trzzcko42.4%-0.80%
25.7sKillAnonymous#5a3b5c → MLK42.0%-0.36%
25.7sTerminal—41.9%-0.05%
Round total · 14 nodes, 4 of them clock drift under 0.01%, summed here and not listed41.9%-8.06%
WhoWhat they were worthThe kit and the box score
NameMWPA0WeaponLoadoutCreditsKDamage
Red · the side the four played on · attack · loadout 2,850 · eco
SN0RLAX·-4.16%Kill credit·Death debit-3.79%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.04%Centering-0.42%Classic70010000
Anonymous#b5cfcbopening kill-0.48%Kill credit+2.99%Death debit-3.46%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.04%Centering-0.05%Classic7502001104
MLKclutch lost-0.37%Kill credit·Death debit-0.36%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.03%Centering-0.04%Classic0800026
Trzzcko·-0.86%Kill credit·Death debit-0.80%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.03%Centering-0.09%Ghost90050030
Anonymous#f82431·-2.15%Kill credit·Death debit-1.96%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.03%Centering-0.21%Ghost50030000
Blue · opponents · defense · loadout 3,250 · eco
Anonymous#5a3b5cmulti kill trade+9.36%Kill credit+8.45%Death debit·Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.03%Centering+0.94%Ghost8501005555
Anonymous#1f7f44·-0.03%Kill credit·Death debit·Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.03%Centering<0.01%Classic70010000
Anonymous#9b2d6d·+0.99%Kill credit+0.92%Death debit·Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.03%Centering+0.10%Ghost5000035
Anonymous#c85052opening death traded-2.26%Kill credit+0.99%Death debit-2.99%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.04%Centering-0.23%Classic4006500101
Anonymous#dadc80·-0.03%Kill credit·Death debit·Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.03%Centering<0.01%Bandit80020000

Round 2 focal side lost

Won byBlue · eliminationScore entering0–1Round leverage0.1612Leverage index1.00×

Time into the roundNode kindNameMatch win probabilityMove
0.0sRound start—37.7%-4.22%
12.5sClock—37.9%+0.16%
12.5sKillAnonymous#5a3b5c → MLK36.1%-1.76%
16.4sClock—36.1%-0.01%
16.4sKillAnonymous#5a3b5c → Trzzcko34.8%-1.28%
17.0sKillAnonymous#dadc80 → Anonymous#f8243134.4%-0.44%
20.1sKillAnonymous#5a3b5c → Anonymous#b5cfcb34.1%-0.27%
24.7sKillAnonymous#5a3b5c → SN0RLAX33.9%-0.21%
24.7sTerminal—33.9%-0.03%
Round total · 12 nodes, 3 of them clock drift under 0.01%, summed here and not listed33.9%-8.06%
WhoWhat they were worthThe kit and the box score
NameMWPA0WeaponLoadoutCreditsKDamage
Red · the side the four played on · attack · loadout 2,800 · eco
SN0RLAXclutch lost-0.20%Kill credit·Death debit-0.21%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.03%Centering-0.02%Ghost1,6001,100083
Anonymous#b5cfcb·-0.27%Kill credit·Death debit-0.27%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.03%Centering-0.03%Classic1502,30000
MLKopening death-1.91%Kill credit·Death debit-1.76%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.03%Centering-0.19%Classic02,70000
Trzzcko·-1.39%Kill credit·Death debit-1.28%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.03%Centering-0.14%Sheriff1,0501,150055
Anonymous#f82431·-0.46%Kill credit·Death debit-0.44%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.03%Centering-0.05%Classic02,20000
Blue · opponents · defense · loadout 8,500 · light
Anonymous#5a3b5cmulti kill opening kill+3.09%Kill credit+2.81%Death debit·Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.03%Centering+0.31%Vandal4,5502004579
Anonymous#1f7f44·+0.75%Kill credit+0.70%Death debit·Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.03%Centering+0.07%Ghost1,2002,4000106
Anonymous#9b2d6d·-0.03%Kill credit·Death debit·Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.03%Centering<0.01%Ghost6002,40000
Anonymous#c85052·-0.03%Kill credit·Death debit·Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.03%Centering<0.01%Ghost1,3502,55000
Anonymous#dadc80·+0.46%Kill credit+0.44%Death debit·Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.03%Centering+0.05%Bandit8003,2001152

Round 3 focal side won

Won byRed · eliminationScore entering0–2Round leverage0.1542Leverage index0.96×

Time into the roundNode kindNameMatch win probabilityMove
0.0sRound start—31.7%-2.20%
11.1sClock—31.9%+0.25%
11.1sKillAnonymous#1f7f44 → Anonymous#f8243129.4%-2.55%
23.4sKillTrzzcko → Anonymous#dadc8031.4%+2.03%
24.0sKillAnonymous#1f7f44 → Trzzcko28.9%-2.49%
29.8sKillAnonymous#b5cfcb → Anonymous#c8505232.2%+3.32%
33.7sKillAnonymous#5a3b5c → Anonymous#b5cfcb28.4%-3.87%
35.2sKillMLK → Anonymous#1f7f4432.1%+3.75%
39.6sKillAnonymous#5a3b5c → MLK27.7%-4.45%
45.0sKillSN0RLAX → Anonymous#9b2d6d32.1%+4.42%
52.6sKillSN0RLAX → Anonymous#5a3b5c41.4%+9.31%
52.6sTerminal—41.6%+0.20%
Round total · 20 nodes, 8 of them clock drift under 0.01%, summed here and not listed41.6%+7.71%
WhoWhat they were worthThe kit and the box score
NameMWPA0WeaponLoadoutCreditsKDamage
Red · the side the four played on · attack · loadout 17,450 · half
SN0RLAXclutch won+16.14%Kill credit+14.47%Death debit·Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.05%Centering+1.61%Ghost2,2002,0002400
Anonymous#b5cfcb·-0.56%Kill credit+3.32%Death debit-3.87%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.05%Centering-0.06%Phantom4,5002001156
MLK·-1.56%Kill credit+3.00%Death debit-4.45%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.05%Centering-0.16%Phantom3,9001,2001156
Trzzcko·-0.45%Kill credit+2.03%Death debit-2.49%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.05%Centering-0.05%Stinger2,2501,5501135
Anonymous#f82431opening death-2.78%Kill credit·Death debit-2.55%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.05%Centering-0.28%Vandal4,6000034
Blue · opponents · defense · loadout 21,450 · full
Anonymous#5a3b5cclutch lost trade-1.86%Kill credit+7.68%Death debit-9.31%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.05%Centering-0.19%Vandal5,1502,5502320
Anonymous#1f7f44opening kill trade traded+0.83%Kill credit+4.54%Death debit-3.75%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.05%Centering+0.08%Vandal5,1008002348
Anonymous#9b2d6d·-4.96%Kill credit·Death debit-4.42%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.05%Centering-0.50%Vandal4,4001,00000
Anonymous#c85052traded-2.75%Kill credit+0.89%Death debit-3.32%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.05%Centering-0.28%Phantom4,9001,6500117
Anonymous#dadc80traded-2.03%Kill credit+0.25%Death debit-2.03%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.05%Centering-0.20%Bandit1,9005,300039

Round 4 focal side won

Won byRed · eliminationScore entering1–2Round leverage0.1682Leverage index1.04×

Time into the roundNode kindNameMatch win probabilityMove
0.0sRound start—42.7%+1.14%
10.8sClock—43.0%+0.24%
10.8sKillAnonymous#5a3b5c → Anonymous#f8243139.7%-3.23%
14.1sKillSN0RLAX → Anonymous#dadc8044.2%+4.42%
20.4sKillMLK → Anonymous#c8505247.4%+3.24%
21.2sKillSN0RLAX → Anonymous#1f7f4448.7%+1.33%
22.2sKillAnonymous#5a3b5c → MLK47.4%-1.29%
28.3sKillTrzzcko → Anonymous#5a3b5c49.4%+1.99%
33.2sReviveAnonymous#5a3b5c47.3%-2.08%
33.2sKillAnonymous#5a3b5c → Trzzcko42.4%-4.91%
33.5sKillAnonymous#b5cfcb → Anonymous#9b2d6d47.0%+4.53%
39.0sKillAnonymous#5a3b5c → SN0RLAX39.9%-7.08%
45.8sKillAnonymous#b5cfcb → Anonymous#5a3b5c49.8%+9.92%
45.8sTerminal—50.0%+0.20%
Round total · 24 nodes, 10 of them clock drift under 0.01%, summed here and not listed50.0%+8.41%
WhoWhat they were worthThe kit and the box score
NameMWPA0WeaponLoadoutCreditsKDamage
Red · the side the four played on · attack · loadout 17,750 · half
SN0RLAX·+0.77%Kill credit+7.73%Death debit-7.08%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.05%Centering+0.08%Phantom5,1003,3002368
Anonymous#b5cfcbclutch won+14.27%Kill credit+12.79%Death debit·Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.05%Centering+1.43%Sheriff2,5501,4502162
MLK·+1.50%Kill credit+2.59%Death debit-1.29%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.05%Centering+0.15%Phantom3,9005001140
Trzzcko·+2.27%Kill credit+1.99%Death debit·Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.05%Centering+0.23%Phantom4,3001,0501216
Anonymous#f82431opening death-3.17%Kill credit+0.32%Death debit-3.23%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.05%Centering-0.32%Sheriff1,9002,200089
Blue · opponents · defense · loadout 14,550 · half
Anonymous#5a3b5cclutch lost multi kill opening kill trade-2.70%Kill credit+9.53%Death debit-11.92%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.05%Centering-0.27%Vandal4,6506004634
Anonymous#1f7f44·-0.74%Kill credit+0.71%Death debit-1.33%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.05%Centering-0.07%Sheriff1,5001,600055
Anonymous#9b2d6dclutch lost-4.37%Kill credit+0.65%Death debit-4.53%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.05%Centering-0.44%Ghost5001,800058
Anonymous#c85052traded-3.65%Kill credit·Death debit-3.24%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.05%Centering-0.37%Spectre3,10070004
Anonymous#dadc80·-4.17%Kill credit+0.71%Death debit-4.42%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.05%Centering-0.42%Phantom4,8002,800078

Round 5 focal side lost

Won byBlue · defuseScore entering2–2Round leverage0.1762Leverage index1.09×

Time into the roundNode kindNameMatch win probabilityMove
0.0sRound start—50.4%+0.36%
7.5sClock—50.6%+0.24%
7.5sKillSN0RLAX → Anonymous#dadc8054.4%+3.84%
8.7sKillAnonymous#1f7f44 → Anonymous#f8243150.7%-3.79%
11.9sKillAnonymous#b5cfcb → Anonymous#5a3b5c55.0%+4.35%
20.3sKillAnonymous#1f7f44 → SN0RLAX50.9%-4.13%
21.5sReviveSN0RLAX54.9%+3.99%
21.5sKillAnonymous#1f7f44 → Anonymous#f8243150.8%-4.03%
22.6sKillMLK → Anonymous#1f7f4455.7%+4.91%
27.6sKillAnonymous#9b2d6d → Trzzcko50.4%-5.30%
29.4sPlantMLK51.8%+1.37%
36.9sClock—52.2%+0.36%
36.9sKillAnonymous#9b2d6d → Anonymous#b5cfcb44.8%-7.40%
44.6sClock—45.1%+0.32%
44.6sKillAnonymous#c85052 → MLK41.3%-3.74%
54.3sClock—41.4%+0.06%
54.3sDefuseAnonymous#9b2d6d41.2%-0.21%
54.3sTerminal—41.2%·
Round total · 26 nodes, 8 of them clock drift under 0.01%, summed here and not listed41.2%-8.81%
WhoWhat they were worthThe kit and the box score
NameMWPA0WeaponLoadoutCreditsKDamage
Red · the side the four played on · attack · loadout 21,300 · full
SN0RLAXopening kill traded+4.17%Kill credit+3.84%Death debit·Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.05%Centering+0.28%Phantom4,6002,8001280
Anonymous#b5cfcb·-8.12%Kill credit·Death debit-7.40%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.23%Centering-0.95%Vandal5,4503,2501160
MLKclutch lost trade+2.18%Kill credit+3.93%Death debit-3.74%Plant+1.37%Defuse·Alive clock+0.55%Centering+0.08%Spectre2,6001,100195
Trzzcko·-4.89%Kill credit+0.98%Death debit-5.30%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.05%Centering-0.63%Vandal4,0508000120
Anonymous#f82431traded-4.31%Kill credit·Death debit-3.79%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.05%Centering-0.57%Vandal4,60090000
Blue · opponents · defense · loadout 19,650 · half
Anonymous#5a3b5c·-0.21%Kill credit·Death debit·Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.05%Centering-0.16%Vandal4,1505000
Anonymous#1f7f44multi kill-0.62%Kill credit+4.54%Death debit-4.91%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.05%Centering-0.20%Vandal4,6001003550
Anonymous#9b2d6d·+13.52%Kill credit+12.70%Death debit·Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.39%Centering+1.22%Vandal4,00002320
Anonymous#c85052·+2.74%Kill credit+3.00%Death debit·Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.39%Centering+0.14%Bandit2,1001,5001160
Anonymous#dadc80opening death-4.48%Kill credit·Death debit-3.84%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.05%Centering-0.58%Vandal4,8001,05000

Round 6 focal side lost

Won byBlue · eliminationScore entering2–3Round leverage0.1762Leverage index1.09×

Time into the roundNode kindNameMatch win probabilityMove
0.0sRound start—38.3%-2.91%
8.2sClock—38.5%+0.22%
8.2sKillAnonymous#c85052 → Anonymous#f8243136.2%-2.31%
25.3sKillAnonymous#5a3b5c → MLK34.1%-2.13%
32.1sKillAnonymous#c85052 → Anonymous#b5cfcb33.2%-0.91%
34.4sKillAnonymous#5a3b5c → SN0RLAX32.6%-0.58%
35.4sKillAnonymous#5a3b5c → Trzzcko32.4%-0.17%
35.4sTerminal—32.4%-0.03%
Round total · 12 nodes, 4 of them clock drift under 0.01%, summed here and not listed32.4%-8.81%
WhoWhat they were worthThe kit and the box score
NameMWPA0WeaponLoadoutCreditsKDamage
Red · the side the four played on · attack · loadout 14,800 · half
SN0RLAX·-0.60%Kill credit·Death debit-0.58%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.04%Centering-0.06%Phantom4,6001,30000
Anonymous#b5cfcb·-0.96%Kill credit·Death debit-0.91%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.04%Centering-0.10%Marshal2,7003,10000
MLK·-2.32%Kill credit·Death debit-2.13%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.04%Centering-0.23%Phantom3,30020000
Trzzckoclutch lost-0.14%Kill credit·Death debit-0.17%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.04%Centering-0.01%Stinger2,2501,350022
Anonymous#f82431opening death-2.51%Kill credit·Death debit-2.31%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.04%Centering-0.25%Bucky1,9501,45000
Blue · opponents · defense · loadout 20,250 · full
Anonymous#5a3b5cmulti kill+3.67%Kill credit+3.35%Death debit·Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.04%Centering+0.37%Vandal4,6501,9003480
Anonymous#1f7f44·-0.05%Kill credit·Death debit·Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.04%Centering<0.01%Sheriff1,9002,05000
Anonymous#9b2d6d·-0.05%Kill credit·Death debit·Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.04%Centering<0.01%Vandal3,900000
Anonymous#c85052opening kill+3.01%Kill credit+2.75%Death debit·Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.04%Centering+0.30%Vandal5,0003,4502474
Anonymous#dadc80·-0.05%Kill credit·Death debit·Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.04%Centering<0.01%Vandal4,80015000

Round 7 focal side lost

Won byBlue · eliminationScore entering2–4Round leverage0.1669Leverage index1.04×

Time into the roundNode kindNameMatch win probabilityMove
0.0sRound start—30.1%-2.30%
12.1sClock—30.3%+0.22%
12.1sKillAnonymous#5a3b5c → Trzzcko27.5%-2.76%
20.4sKillAnonymous#5a3b5c → MLK26.0%-1.51%
23.1sKillSN0RLAX → Anonymous#5a3b5c27.6%+1.57%
24.7sKillAnonymous#f82431 → Anonymous#c8505232.5%+4.84%
30.2sReviveAnonymous#5a3b5c27.7%-4.78%
30.2sKillAnonymous#5a3b5c → SN0RLAX25.6%-2.11%
31.6sKillAnonymous#b5cfcb → Anonymous#9b2d6d27.8%+2.21%
33.0sKillAnonymous#f82431 → Anonymous#dadc8032.7%+4.92%
35.3sKillAnonymous#1f7f44 → Anonymous#f8243127.1%-5.61%
74.4sClock—27.0%-0.04%
74.4sKillAnonymous#b5cfcb → Anonymous#1f7f4430.0%+2.97%
78.9sKillAnonymous#5a3b5c → Anonymous#b5cfcb24.3%-5.73%
78.9sTerminal—24.0%-0.25%
Round total · 24 nodes, 9 of them clock drift under 0.01%, summed here and not listed24.0%-8.35%
WhoWhat they were worthThe kit and the box score
NameMWPA0WeaponLoadoutCreditsKDamage
Red · the side the four played on · attack · loadout 16,100 · half
SN0RLAXtrade+1.79%Kill credit+1.57%Death debit·Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.04%Centering+0.18%Stinger2,2002,0001148
Anonymous#b5cfcbclutch lost-0.60%Kill credit+5.18%Death debit-5.73%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock<0.01%Centering-0.06%Phantom4,6501,4502312
MLKtraded-1.62%Kill credit·Death debit-1.51%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.04%Centering-0.16%Ghost1,2001,400040
Trzzckoopening death-3.01%Kill credit·Death debit-2.76%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.04%Centering-0.30%Vandal4,050300040
Anonymous#f82431·-0.71%Kill credit+4.92%Death debit-5.61%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock+0.04%Centering-0.07%Vandal4,0001502350
Blue · opponents · defense · loadout 20,250 · full
Anonymous#5a3b5cclutch won multi kill opening kill trade+8.06%Kill credit+8.84%Death debit-1.57%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.02%Centering+0.81%Vandal4,6504,3504680
Anonymous#1f7f44trade traded+2.93%Kill credit+5.63%Death debit-2.97%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.02%Centering+0.29%Sheriff1,9005,0501214
Anonymous#9b2d6d·-2.51%Kill credit·Death debit-2.21%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.04%Centering-0.25%Vandal3,9002,40000
Anonymous#c85052·-0.05%Kill credit·Death debit·Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.04%Centering<0.01%Vandal5,0006,85000
Anonymous#dadc80traded-4.27%Kill credit+1.12%Death debit-4.92%Plant·Defuse·Alive clock-0.04%Centering-0.43%Vandal4,8003,15000